Modeling uncertain and dynamic casualty health in optimization-based decision support for mass casualty incident response

When designing a decision support program for use in coordinating the response to Mass Casualty Incidents, the modelling of the health of casualties presents a significant challenge. In this paper we propose one such health model, capable of acknowledging both the uncertain and dynamic nature of casualty health. Incorporating this into a larger optimisation model capable of use in real-time and in an online manner, computational experiments examining the effect of errors in health assessment, regular updates of health and delays in communication are reported. Results demonstrate the often significant impact of these factors

Tourism destination competitiveness: second thoughts on the world economic forum reports

The Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Reports of the World Economic Forum elaborate the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) as an overall measure of destination competitiveness for 130 economies worldwide. From a tourism management point of view, a measure such as the TTCI is expected to be instrumental in explaining and predicting the tourism performance of receiving countries. This study explores several ways to transform the TTCI into a formative structural model. Partial least squares path modelling, PLS regression, mixture modelling and non-linear covariance-based structural equation modelling are applied to examine the TTCI's predictive power. The analysis probes possible measures for improvement. The destination countries may be subject to unobserved heterogeneity with regard to how the various constituents of competitiveness act on tourism performance. Interaction phenomena seem to prohibit a simple cause-effect pattern and non-linear relationships show encouraging results

Demand-driven sustainable tourism? A choice modelling analysis

This paper studies the preferences of tourists visiting Sardinia (Italy), using a choice modelling approach. The focus is on the evaluation of specific ‘demand-enhancing effects’ which, according to economic theory, provide a basis for implementing sustainable tourism policies. Multinomial logit estimates reveal that strong negative effects result from the congestion of tourist attractions and the transformation of coastal environments, though tourists clearly gain utility from the other components of a tourism destination. The extent of the effects related to environmental preservation seems to support planning tourism development policies that will not have strong irreversible effects on coastal areas

Search for eccentric black hole coalescences during the third observing run of LIGO and Virgo

Despite the growing number of binary black hole coalescences confidently observed through gravitational waves so far, the astrophysical origin of these binaries remains uncertain. Orbital eccentricity is one of the clearest tracers of binary formation channels. Identifying binary eccentricity, however, remains challenging due to the limited availability of gravitational waveforms that include the effects of eccentricity. Here, we present observational results for a waveform-independent search sensitive to eccentric black hole coalescences, covering the third observing run (O3) of the LIGO and Virgo detectors. We identified no new high-significance candidates beyond those that have already been identified with searches focusing on quasi-circular binaries. We determine the sensitivity of our search to high-mass (total source-frame mass M > 70 M⊙) binaries covering eccentricities up to 0.3 at 15 Hz emitted gravitational-wave frequency, and use this to compare model predictions to search results. Assuming all detections are indeed quasi-circular, for our fiducial population model, we place a conservative upper limit for the merger rate density of high-mass binaries with eccentricities 0 < e ≤ 0.3 at 16.9 Gpc−3 yr−1 at the 90% confidence level

The hidden costs of cheap group tours - a case study of business practices in Australia

This paper deals with an issue that has been identified in many markets where there are large numbers of package tourists. In Australia, there have been a number of studies undertaken into the use of a range of dubious business practices employed by Inbound Tour Operators (ITOs), particularly in the Korean market. The cause for this problem is identified as the minimization of the retail price of package tour by transferring part of the cost of the tour to ITOs in the destination country. Under this system, ITOs are paid a daily tour rate below their real costs and are forced to recover losses by employing a range of dubious business practices including forced shopping and kickbacks from shops. The paper models the normal operation of the package tour cycle where no business practices are used and compares this to the Korean package inbound market in Australia where the use of business practices of this nature is widespread

A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice

Numerous studies on tourism forecasting have now been published over the past five decades. However,no consensus has been reached in terms of which types of forecasting models tend to be more accurate and in which circumstances. This study uses meta-analysis to examine the relationships between the accuracy of different forecasting models, and the data characteristics and study features. By reviewing 65 studies published during the period 1980-2011, the meta-regression analysis shows that the origins of tourists, destination, time period, modeling method, data frequency, number of variables and their measures and sample size all significantly influence the accuracy of forecasting models. This study is the first attempt to pair forecasting models with the data characteristics and the tourism forecasting context.The results provide suggestions for the choice of appropriate forecasting methods in different forecasting settings

Segmenting consumers based on how they spend a tax rebate: An analysis of the Australian stimulus payment

Tax rebates are instruments for stimulating consumer spending during recessions. Previous research assessed whether consumers use tax rebates for saving or, alternatively, purchasing goods and services. These studies concentrated on aggregate estimations. Based on the saving motive hierarchy suggested in the economic psychology literature, other theories on saving motives, and acquisition pattern analysis, we propose that consumers can be segmented by the purposes for which they use a tax rebate. We apply Latent Class Analysis to segment consumers in Australia according to their allocation of the 2009 government rebate, which was paid as a tax bonus, across a broad set of expenditure categories. The analysis reveals segments with different spending patterns, including segments we have labeled as 'investors', 'travelers', 'debt-payers', and four other segments. Segment membership is explained using a mix of socio-demographic variables, annual category expenditures, and psychological factors (materialism and consumer confidence). We discuss theoretical implications as well as managerial implications for policymakers and marketing. © 2010 Elsevier B.V

Agent-based simulation of emergency response to plan the allocation of resources for a hypothetical two-site major incident

During a major incident, the emergency services work together to ensure that those casualties who are critically injured are identified and transported to an appropriate hospital as fast as possible. If the incident is multi-site and resources are limited, the efficiency of this process is compromised as the finite resources must be shared among the multiple sites. In this paper, agent-based simulation is used to determine the allocation of resources for a two-site incident which minimizes the latest hospital arrival times for critically injured casualties. Further, how the optimal resource allocation depends on the distribution of casualties across the two sites is investigated. Such application supports the use of agent-based simulation as a tool to aid emergency response