Satellite Data and Supervised Learning to Prevent Impact of Drought on Crop Production: Meteorological Drought

Reiterated and extreme weather events pose challenges for the agricultural sector. The convergence of remote sensing and supervised learning (SL) can generate solutions for the problems arising from climate change. SL methods build from a training set a function that maps a set of variables to an output. This function can be used to predict new examples. Because they are nonparametric, these methods can mine large quantities of satellite data to capture the relationship between climate variables and crops, or successfully replace autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the weather. Agricultural indices (AIs) reflecting the soil water conditions that influence crop conditions are costly to monitor in terms of time and resources. So, under certain circumstances, meteorological indices can be used as substitutes for AIs. We discuss meteorological indexes and review SL approaches that are suitable for predicting drought based on historical satellite data. We also include some illustrative case studies. Finally, we will survey rainfall products existing at the web and some alternatives to process the data: from high-performance computing systems able to process terabyte-scale datasets to open source software enabling the use of personal computers

Genetic gains in potato breeding as measured by field testing of cultivars released during the last 200 years in the Nordic Region of Europe

Genetic gains (Delta(G)) are determined by the breeders' equation Delta(G) = [(ck sigma(2)(G))/(y sigma(P))], where c, k and y are the parental control, a function of the selection intensity and number of years to complete one selection cycle, respectively, while sigma(2)(G) and are sigma(P) the genetic variance and the square root of the phenotypic variance. Plant breeding programs should deliver above 1% of annual genetic gains after testing and selection. The aim of this research was to estimate genetic gains in potato breeding after testing of cultivars released in western Europe in the last 200 years under high yield potential, and stress-prone environments affected by a pest (late blight) or daylength. The annual genetic gains for tuber yield and flesh's starch content for potato breeding in Europe were about 0.3 and -0.1%, respectively, thus telling that the realized genetic gains of foreign cultivars for both traits are small or negative, respectively, in the Nordic testing sites. The national annual productivity gains in potato grown in Sweden were on average 0.7% in the last 60 years while the genetic gains for tuber yield considering only the table cultivars released after the 2nd World War were about 0.36%, thus showing that breeding contributed just above 1/2 of it. Furthermore, genetic gains for breeding low reducing sugars in the tuber flesh, and high host plant resistance to late blight were small (<0.2% per year). These results highlight that genetic gains are small when testing bred germplasm outside their target population of environments

Genome-Based Genotype × Environment Prediction Enhances Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) Improvement Using Pseudo-Diploid and Polysomic Tetraploid Modeling

Potato breeding must improve its efficiency by increasing the reliability of selection as well as identifying a promising germplasm for crossing. This study shows the prediction accuracy of genomic-estimated breeding values for several potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) breeding clones and the released cultivars that were evaluated at three locations in northern and southern Sweden for various traits. Three dosages of marker alleles [pseudo-diploid (A), additive tetrasomic polyploidy (B), and additive-non-additive tetrasomic polyploidy (C)] were considered in the genome-based prediction models, for single environments and multiple environments (accounting for the genotype-by-environment interaction or G × E), and for comparing two kernels, the conventional linear, Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) (GB), and the non-linear Gaussian kernel (GK), when used with the single-kernel genetic matrices of A, B, C, or when employing two-kernel genetic matrices in the model using the kernels from B and C for a single environment (models 1 and 2, respectively), and for multi-environments (models 3 and 4, respectively). Concerning the single site analyses, the trait with the highest prediction accuracy for all sites under A, B, C for model 1, model 2, and for GB and GK methods was tuber starch percentage. Another trait with relatively high prediction accuracy was the total tuber weight. Results show an increase in prediction accuracy of model 2 over model 1. Non-linear Gaussian kernel (GK) did not show any clear advantage over the linear kernel GBLUP (GB). Results from the multi-environments had prediction accuracy estimates (models 3 and 4) higher than those obtained from the single-environment analyses. Model 4 with GB was the best method in combination with the marker structure B for predicting most of the tuber traits. Most of the traits gave relatively high prediction accuracy under this combination of marker structure (A, B, C, and B-C), and methods GB and GK combined with the multi-environment with G × E model

Optimizing multi-environment testing in potato breeding: using heritability estimates to determine number of replications, sites, and years for field trials

Multi-environment trials (METs) of potato breeding clones and cultivars allow to precisely determine their performance across testing sites over years. However, these METs may be affected by the genotype × environment interaction (GEI) as noted in tuber yield. Furthermore, trials are replicated several times to optimize the predictive value of the data collected because knowledge on spatial and temporal variability of testing environments is often lacking. Hence, the objectives of this research were to use components of variance from METs to estimate broad sense heritability (H2) based on best linear unbiased predictors and use these estimates to determine the optimum number of sites, years, and replications for testing potato breeding clones along with cultivars. The data were taken from METs in southern and northern Sweden comprising up to 256 breeding clones and cultivars that underwent testing using a simple lattice design of 10-plant plots across three sites over 2 years. Percentage starch in the tuber flesh had the largest H2 in each testing environment (0.850–0.976) or across testing environments (0.905–0.921). Total tuber weight per plot also exhibited high H2 (0.720–0.919) in each testing environment or across them (0.726–0.852), despite a significant GEI. Reducing sugar content in the tuber flesh had the lowest, but still medium H2 (0.426–0.883 in each testing environment; 0.718–0.818 across testing environments). The H2 estimates were smaller when their variance components were disaggregated by year and site, instead of lumping them as environments. Simulating H2 with genetic, site, year, site × year, genetic × site, genetic × year, genetic × site × year, and residual variance components led to establish that two replicates at each of two sites in 2-year trials will suffice for testing tuber yield, starch and reducing sugars. This article provides a methodology to optimize the number of testing size and years for METs of potato breeding materials, as well as tabulated information for choosing the appropriate number of trials in same target population of environments

Special Libraries, April 1919

Volume 10, Issue 3https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/sla_sl_1919/1002/thumbnail.jp

Public potato breeding progress for the Nordic Region of Europe: evidence from multisite testing of selected breeding clones and available released cultivars

The breeding of new cultivars is a powerful approach to increase both the quantity and quality of potato harvest per land unit. The aim of this research was to determine using multi-site testing the progress made by the genetic enhancement of potato in Sweden in the last 1.5 decades by comparing advanced breeding clones (T4 upwards) bred in Sweden (Svensk potatisförädling hereafter) versus available released cultivars in Europe and grown in its Nordic Region. The multi-site testing results show that potato breeding based in Scandinavia offers to the growers of the Nordic Region of Europe cultivars for prevailing farming environments and end-user needs rather than relying, as happens today in the market, on foreign cultivars. These cultivars bred elsewhere are not always very suitable for the challenging Nordic agroecosystems, as shown by the results of the multi-site testing herein. Such an approach on relying on foreign cultivars may be advocated for not funding potato breeding in, and for Fennoscandia by those ignoring the results shown by this research

Enhancing Hybrid Prediction in Pearl Millet Using Genomic and/or Multi- Environment Phenotypic Information of Inbreds

Genomic selection (GS) is an emerging methodology that helps select superior lines among experimental cultivars in plant breeding programs. It offers the opportunity to increase the productivity of cultivars by delivering increased genetic gains and reducing the breeding cycles. This methodology requires inexpensive and sufficiently dense marker information to be successful, and with whole genome sequencing, it has become an important tool in many crops. The recent assembly of the pearl millet genome has made it possible to employ GS models to improve the selection procedure in pearl millet breeding programs. Here, three GS models were implemented and compared using grain yield and dense molecular marker information of pearl millet obtained from two different genotyping platforms (C [conventional GBS RAD-seq] and T [tunable GBS tGBS]). The models were evaluated using three different cross-validation (CV) schemes mimicking real situations that breeders face in breeding programs: CV2 resembles an incomplete field trial, CV1 predicts the performance of untested hybrids, and CV0 predicts the performance of hybrids in unobserved environments. We found that (i) adding phenotypic information of parental inbreds to the calibration sets improved predictive ability, (ii) accounting for genotype-by-environment interaction also increased the performance of the models, and (iii) superior strategies should consider the use of the molecular markers derived from the T platform (tGBS)

Approximate genome-based kernel models for large data sets including main effects and interactions

The rapid development of molecular markers and sequencing technologies has made it possible to use genomic prediction (GP) and selection (GS) in animal and plant breeding. However, when the number of observations (n) is large (thousands or millions), computational difficulties when handling these large genomic kernel relationship matrices (inverting and decomposing) increase exponentially. This problem increases when genomic × environment interaction and multi-trait kernels are included in the model. In this research we propose selecting a small number of lines m(m < n) for constructing an approximate kernel of lower rank than the original and thus exponentially decreasing the required computing time. First, we describe the full genomic method for single environment (FGSE) with a covariance matrix (kernel) including all n lines. Second, we select m lines and approximate the original kernel for the single environment model (APSE). Similarly, but including main effects and G × E, we explain a full genomic method with genotype × environment model (FGGE), and including m lines, we approximated the kernel method with G × E (APGE). We applied the proposed method to two different wheat data sets of different sizes (n) using the standard linear kernel Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (GBLUP) and also using eigen value decomposition. In both data sets, we compared the prediction performance and computing time for FGSE versus APSE; we also compared FGGE versus APGE. Results showed a competitive prediction performance of the approximated methods with a significant reduction in computing time. Genomic prediction accuracy depends on the decay of the eigenvalues (amount of variance information loss) of the original kernel as well as on the size of the selected lines m.publishedVersio

Optimizing Genomic-Enabled Prediction in Small-Scale Maize Hybrid Breeding Programs: A Roadmap Review

The usefulness of genomic prediction (GP) for many animal and plant breeding programs has been highlighted for many studies in the last 20 years. In maize breeding programs, mostly dedicated to delivering more highly adapted and productive hybrids, this approach has been proved successful for both large- and small-scale breeding programs worldwide. Here, we present some of the strategies developed to improve the accuracy of GP in tropical maize, focusing on its use under low budget and small-scale conditions achieved for most of the hybrid breeding programs in developing countries. We highlight the most important outcomes obtained by the University of São Paulo (USP, Brazil) and how they can improve the accuracy of prediction in tropical maize hybrids. Our roadmap starts with the efforts for germplasm characterization, moving on to the practices for mating design, and the selection of the genotypes that are used to compose the training population in field phenotyping trials. Factors including population structure and the importance of non-additive effects (dominance and epistasis) controlling the desired trait are also outlined. Finally, we explain how the source of the molecular markers, environmental, and the modeling of genotype–environment interaction can affect the accuracy of GP. Results of 7 years of research in a public maize hybrid breeding program under tropical conditions are discussed, and with the great advances that have been made, we find that what is yet to come is exciting. The use of open-source software for the quality control of molecular markers, implementing GP, and envirotyping pipelines may reduce costs in an efficient computational manner. We conclude that exploring new models/tools using high-throughput phenotyping data along with large-scale envirotyping may bring more resolution and realism when predicting genotype performances. Despite the initial costs, mostly for genotyping, the GP platforms in combination with these other data sources can be a cost-effective approach for predicting the performance of maize hybrids for a large set of growing conditions

Comparing gradient boosting machine and Bayesian threshold BLUP for genome-based prediction of categorical traits in wheat breeding

publishedVersio