Identification of a Duffing oscillator using particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling

The Duffing oscillator remains a key benchmark in nonlinear systems analysis and poses interesting challenges in nonlinear structural identification. The use of particle methods or sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is becoming a more common approach for tackling these nonlinear dynamical systems, within structural dynamics and beyond. This paper demonstrates the use of a tailored SMC algorithm within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to allow inference over the latent states and parameters of the Duffing oscillator in a Bayesian manner. This approach to system identification offers a statistically more rigorous treatment of the problem than the common state-augmentation methods where the parameters of the model are included as additional latent states. It is shown how recent advances in particle MCMC methods, namely the particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PG-AS) algorithm is capable of performing efficient Bayesian inference, even in cases where little is known about the system parameters a priori. The advantage of this Bayesian approach is the quantification of uncertainty, not only in the system parameters but also in the states of the model (displacement and velocity) even in the presence of measurement noise

Scarred Patterns in Surface Waves

Surface wave patterns are investigated experimentally in a system geometry that has become a paradigm of quantum chaos: the stadium billiard. Linear waves in bounded geometries for which classical ray trajectories are chaotic are known to give rise to scarred patterns. Here, we utilize parametrically forced surface waves (Faraday waves), which become progressively nonlinear beyond the wave instability threshold, to investigate the subtle interplay between boundaries and nonlinearity. Only a subset (three main types) of the computed linear modes of the stadium are observed in a systematic scan. These correspond to modes in which the wave amplitudes are strongly enhanced along paths corresponding to certain periodic ray orbits. Many other modes are found to be suppressed, in general agreement with a prediction by Agam and Altshuler based on boundary dissipation and the Lyapunov exponent of the associated orbit. Spatially asymmetric or disordered (but time-independent) patterns are also found even near onset. As the driving acceleration is increased, the time-independent scarred patterns persist, but in some cases transitions between modes are noted. The onset of spatiotemporal chaos at higher forcing amplitude often involves a nonperiodic oscillation between spatially ordered and disordered states. We characterize this phenomenon using the concept of pattern entropy. The rate of change of the patterns is found to be reduced as the state passes temporarily near the ordered configurations of lower entropy. We also report complex but highly symmetric (time-independent) patterns far above onset in the regime that is normally chaotic.Comment: 9 pages, 10 figures (low resolution gif files). Updated and added references and text. For high resolution images: http://physics.clarku.edu/~akudrolli/stadium.htm

Colossal dielectric constants in transition-metal oxides

Many transition-metal oxides show very large ("colossal") magnitudes of the dielectric constant and thus have immense potential for applications in modern microelectronics and for the development of new capacitance-based energy-storage devices. In the present work, we thoroughly discuss the mechanisms that can lead to colossal values of the dielectric constant, especially emphasising effects generated by external and internal interfaces, including electronic phase separation. In addition, we provide a detailed overview and discussion of the dielectric properties of CaCu3Ti4O12 and related systems, which is today's most investigated material with colossal dielectric constant. Also a variety of further transition-metal oxides with large dielectric constants are treated in detail, among them the system La2-xSrxNiO4 where electronic phase separation may play a role in the generation of a colossal dielectric constant.Comment: 31 pages, 18 figures, submitted to Eur. Phys. J. for publication in the Special Topics volume "Cooperative Phenomena in Solids: Metal-Insulator Transitions and Ordering of Microscopic Degrees of Freedom

A muon-track reconstruction exploiting stochastic losses for large-scale Cherenkov detectors

IceCube is a cubic-kilometer Cherenkov telescope operating at the South Pole. The main goal of IceCube is the detection of astrophysical neutrinos and the identification of their sources. High-energy muon neutrinos are observed via the secondary muons produced in charge current interactions with nuclei in the ice. Currently, the best performing muon track directional reconstruction is based on a maximum likelihood method using the arrival time distribution of Cherenkov photons registered by the experiment\u27s photomultipliers. A known systematic shortcoming of the prevailing method is to assume a continuous energy loss along the muon track. However at energies >1 TeV the light yield from muons is dominated by stochastic showers. This paper discusses a generalized ansatz where the expected arrival time distribution is parametrized by a stochastic muon energy loss pattern. This more realistic parametrization of the loss profile leads to an improvement of the muon angular resolution of up to 20% for through-going tracks and up to a factor 2 for starting tracks over existing algorithms. Additionally, the procedure to estimate the directional reconstruction uncertainty has been improved to be more robust against numerical errors

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo