Utterance Selection Model of Language Change

We present a mathematical formulation of a theory of language change. The theory is evolutionary in nature and has close analogies with theories of population genetics. The mathematical structure we construct similarly has correspondences with the Fisher-Wright model of population genetics, but there are significant differences. The continuous time formulation of the model is expressed in terms of a Fokker-Planck equation. This equation is exactly soluble in the case of a single speaker and can be investigated analytically in the case of multiple speakers who communicate equally with all other speakers and give their utterances equal weight. Whilst the stationary properties of this system have much in common with the single-speaker case, time-dependent properties are richer. In the particular case where linguistic forms can become extinct, we find that the presence of many speakers causes a two-stage relaxation, the first being a common marginal distribution that persists for a long time as a consequence of ultimate extinction being due to rare fluctuations.Comment: 21 pages, 17 figure

Sensitivity and specificity of methods of classification of leprosy without use of skin-smear examination

A 12-month cohort of 2664 new leprosy cases in Bangladesh has been analyzed to provide information about the sensitivity and specificity of two different methods of classifying leprosy into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB), if the results of skin-smear examination are not taken into account. The two methods are: 1) a procedure based on counting skin lesions recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) (&lt;6 skin lesions = PB, ≥6 skin lesions = MB); and 2) the 'Bangladesh method' (&lt;10 skin and nerve lesions = PB, ≥10 skin and nerve lesions = MB). In the latter system, any degree of nerve enlargement is taken to be a nerve lesion. The WHO method was found to be 89% sensitive and 88% specific at detecting smear-positive MB cases from among the cohort; the Bangladesh system, 92% sensitive and 88.6% specific. The WHO method did not detect 18 smear-positive cases as MN; the Bangladesh method left 13 smear-positive cases unclassified as MB. Several of these 'missed' (false-negative) cases had a high bacterial index. The WHO system of classifying leprosy cases as MB is simple to apply and has a reasonable balance between sensitivity and specificity. However, it must be recognized that the system will lead to a small but significant number of skin-smear-positive MB cases being treated with a PB treatment regimen.</p

Sensitivity and specificity of methods of classification of leprosy without use of skin-smear examination

A 12-month cohort of 2664 new leprosy cases in Bangladesh has been analyzed to provide information about the sensitivity and specificity of two different methods of classifying leprosy into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB), if the results of skin-smear examination are not taken into account. The two methods are: 1) a procedure based on counting skin lesions recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) (&lt;6 skin lesions = PB, ≥6 skin lesions = MB); and 2) the 'Bangladesh method' (&lt;10 skin and nerve lesions = PB, ≥10 skin and nerve lesions = MB). In the latter system, any degree of nerve enlargement is taken to be a nerve lesion. The WHO method was found to be 89% sensitive and 88% specific at detecting smear-positive MB cases from among the cohort; the Bangladesh system, 92% sensitive and 88.6% specific. The WHO method did not detect 18 smear-positive cases as MN; the Bangladesh method left 13 smear-positive cases unclassified as MB. Several of these 'missed' (false-negative) cases had a high bacterial index. The WHO system of classifying leprosy cases as MB is simple to apply and has a reasonable balance between sensitivity and specificity. However, it must be recognized that the system will lead to a small but significant number of skin-smear-positive MB cases being treated with a PB treatment regimen.</p

Cosmological Limits on the Neutrino Mass from the Lya Forest

The Lya forest in quasar spectra probes scales where massive neutrinos can strongly suppress the growth of mass fluctuations. Using hydrodynamic simulations with massive neutrinos, we successfully test techniques developed to measure the mass power spectrum from the forest. A recent observational measurement in conjunction with a conservative implementation of other cosmological constraints places upper limits on the neutrino mass: m_nu < 5.5 eV for all values of Omega_m, and m_nu < 2.4 (Omega_m/0.17 -1) eV, if 0.2 < Omega_m <0.5 as currently observationally favored (both 95 % C.L.).Comment: 4 pages, 2 ps figures, REVTex, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Protoclusters associated with z > 2 radio galaxies. I. Characteristics of high redshift protoclusters

[Abridged] We present the results of a large program conducted with the Very Large Telescope and Keck telescope to search for forming clusters of galaxies near powerful radio galaxies at 2.0 < z < 5.2. We obtained narrow- and broad-band images of nine radio galaxies and their surroundings. The imaging was used to select candidate Lyman alpha emitting galaxies in ~3x3 Mpc^2 areas near the radio galaxies. A total of 337 candidate emitters were found with a rest-frame Lyman alpha equivalent width of EW_0 > 15 A and Sigma = EW_0/Delta EW_0 > 3. Follow-up spectroscopy confirmed 168 Lyman alpha emitters near eight radio galaxies. The success rate of our selection procedure is 91%. At least six of our eight fields are overdense in Lyman alpha emitters by a factor 3-5. Also, the emitters show significant clustering in velocity space. In the overdense fields, the width of the velocity distributions of the emitters is a factor 2-5 smaller than the width of the narrow-band filters. Taken together, we conclude that we have discovered six forming clusters of galaxies (protoclusters). We estimate that roughly 75% of powerful (L_2.7GHz > 10^33 erg/s/Hz/sr) high redshift radio galaxies reside in a protocluster, with a sizes of at least 1.75 Mpc. We estimate that the protoclusters have masses in the range 2-9 x 10^14 Msun and they are likely to be progenitors of present-day (massive) clusters of galaxies. For the first time, we have been able to estimate the velocity dispersion of cluster progenitors from z~5 to ~2. The velocity dispersion of the emitters increases with cosmic time, in agreement with the dark matter velocity dispersion in numerical simulations of forming massive clusters.Comment: 30 pages, 20 figures. Published in A&A. The article with high resolution figures is available at http://www.ast.cam.ac.uk/~venemans/research/datapaper/index.htm

User Intent Prediction in Information-seeking Conversations

Conversational assistants are being progressively adopted by the general population. However, they are not capable of handling complicated information-seeking tasks that involve multiple turns of information exchange. Due to the limited communication bandwidth in conversational search, it is important for conversational assistants to accurately detect and predict user intent in information-seeking conversations. In this paper, we investigate two aspects of user intent prediction in an information-seeking setting. First, we extract features based on the content, structural, and sentiment characteristics of a given utterance, and use classic machine learning methods to perform user intent prediction. We then conduct an in-depth feature importance analysis to identify key features in this prediction task. We find that structural features contribute most to the prediction performance. Given this finding, we construct neural classifiers to incorporate context information and achieve better performance without feature engineering. Our findings can provide insights into the important factors and effective methods of user intent prediction in information-seeking conversations.Comment: Accepted to CHIIR 201

Recovering the Primordial Density Fluctuations: A comparison of methods

We present a comparative study of six different methods for reversing the gravitational evolution of a cosmological density field to recover the primordial fluctuations: linear theory, the Gaussianization mapping scheme, two different quasi-linear dynamical schemes based on the Zel'dovich approximation, a Hybrid dynamical-Gaussianization method and the Path Interchange Zel'dovich Approximation (PIZA). The final evolved density field from an N-body simulation constitutes our test case. We use a variety of statistical measures to compare the initial density field recovered from it to the true initial density field, using each of the six different schemes. These include point-by-point comparisons of the density fields in real space, the individual modes in Fourier space, as well as global statistical properties such as the genus, the PDF of the density, and the distribution of peak heights and their shapes. We find linear theory to be the most inaccurate of all the schemes. The Gaussianization scheme is the least accurate after linear theory. The two quasi-linear dynamical schemes are more accurate than Gaussianization, although they break down quite drastically when used outside their range of validity - the quasi-linear regime. The complementary beneficial aspects of the dynamical and the Gaussianization schemes are combined in the Hybrid method. We find this Hybrid scheme to be more accurate and robust than either Gaussianization or the dynamical method alone. The PIZA scheme performs substantially better than the others in all point-by-point comparisons. However, it produces an oversmoothed initial density field, with a smaller number of peaks than expected, but recovers the PDF of the initial density with impressive accuracy on scales as small as 3Mpc/h.Comment: 39 pages, including 13 Figures, submitted to Ap