Common learning

Consider two agents who learn the value of an unknown parameter by observing a sequence of private signals. The signals are independent and identically distributed across time but not necessarily across agents. We show that when each agent's signal space is finite, the agents will commonly learn the value of the parameter, that is, that the true value of the parameter will become approximate common knowledge. The essential step in this argument is to express the expectation of one agent's signals, conditional on those of the other agent, in terms of a Markov chain. This allows us to invoke a contraction mapping principle ensuring that if one agent's signals are close to those expected under a particular value of the parameter, then that agent expects the other agent's signals to be even closer to those expected under the parameter value. In contrast, if the agents' observations come from a countably infinite signal space, then this contraction mapping property fails. We show by example that common learning can fail in this case

Plant pathogens as biocontrol agents for Cirsium arvense : an answer to Müller and Nentwig

Recently, Müller and Nentwig (2011) reviewed the plant pathogens that have been considered for biological control of the weed Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. (Canada thistle, Californian thistle, creeping thistle), and concluded that the prospects have been largely overestimated. The premise of their conclusion is that no bioherbicide products have achieved marketability, which they surmise is due to lack of host specificity, effectiveness, and issues with application. While it is true that no microbial products have achieved marketability for this weed, we believe their reasoning for this is erroneous, and likely due to lack of distinction between two biocontrol approaches, specifically classical biocontrol, and innundative biocontrol (often referred to as the biopesticide approach). These two different types of biocontrol have different goals, and are applied in different ways

The effect of farming system on dairy cow cleanliness in the UK and implications to udder health

The cleanliness of dairy cows was assessed using a 20 point hygiene score system at different times in the year on 14 organic and 14 conventional farms in the UK. Overall, cows were dirtier during winter housing compared to summer grazing. Farming system had no effect on cow cleanliness when cows were at grass, but when housed in the winter, organic cows were more likely to be cleaner. There was a link between cow hygiene scores and milk hygiene, with herds having lower bulk tank somatic cell counts (BTSCC) tending to have cleaner cows. This relationship was strongest for the organic herds. There was no significant link between hygiene score and Bactoscan (BS) count or mastitis incidence

“Sounds good, but… what is it?” an introduction to outcome measurement from a music therapy perspective

“Sounds good, but… what is it?” This is a common reaction to outcome measurement by music therapy practitioners and researchers who are less familiar with its meanings and practices. Given the prevailing evidence-based practice movement, outcome measurement does ‘sound good’. Some practitioners and researchers, however, have a limited or unclear understanding of what outcome measurement includes; particularly with respect to outcome measures and related terminology around their use. Responding to the “what is it?” question, this article provides an introduction to such terminology. It explores what outcome measures are and outlines characteristics related to their forms, uses and selection criteria. While pointing to some debates regarding outcome measurement, including its philosophical underpinnings, this introduction seeks to offer a useful platform for a critical and contextual understanding of the potential use of outcome measures in music therapy

Singularities in five-axis machining:cause, effect and avoidance

Singular configurations of five-axis machines have long been observed. Machining near to such singularities drastically affects the behaviour of machine axes movements. Singularities have been linked to the kinematic chain of the machine configuration but not necessarily machine axes movement. The first contribution of this paper is a link between cutter motion in work-piece and machine coordinate systems. This leads to a description for the machine axes movements for a given tool path. Unstable machine axes movements are discovered near singular configurations of the rotary axes. By relating these configurations to orientations in the workpiece coordinate system, a simple approach that avoids singularities by reorienting the workpiece is proposed. Machining tests verify the effectiveness of this approach.</p

Schjeldahl Dale connectors

The Schjeldahl Dale connector was found to be best suited to the ALSEP environment and Array E program constraints (Memo 9713-325). More rigorous control of manufacture and assembly operations will ensure a highly reliable connector. This ATM details the steps to be taken to achieve this high reliability.prepared by G. A. Cripps

Lactobacillus fermentum (PCC®) supplementation and gastrointestinal and respiratory-tract illness symptoms: a randomised control trial in athletes

BACKGROUND Probiotics purportedly reduce symptoms of gastrointestinal and upper respiratory-tract illness by modulating commensal microflora. Preventing and reducing symptoms of respiratory and gastrointestinal illness are the primary reason that dietary supplementation with probiotics are becoming increasingly popular with healthy active individuals. There is a paucity of data regarding the effectiveness of probiotics in this cohort. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a probiotic on faecal microbiology, self-reported illness symptoms and immunity in healthy well trained individuals. METHODS Competitive cyclists (64 males and 35 females; age 35 ± 9 and 36 ± 9 y, VO2max 56 ± 6 and 52 ± 6 ml.kg-1.min-1, mean ± SD) were randomised to either probiotic (minimum 1 × 109 Lactobacillus fermentum (PCC®) per day) or placebo treatment for 11 weeks in a double-blind, randomised, controlled trial. The outcome measures were faecal L. fermentum counts, self-reported symptoms of illness and serum cytokines. RESULTS Lactobacillus numbers increased 7.7-fold (90% confidence limits 2.1- to 28-fold) more in males on the probiotic, while there was an unclear 2.2-fold (0.2- to 18-fold) increase in females taking the probiotic. The number and duration of mild gastrointestinal symptoms were ~2-fold greater in the probiotic group. However, there was a substantial 0.7 (0.2 to 1.2) of a scale step reduction in the severity of gastrointestinal illness at the mean training load in males, which became more pronounced as training load increased. The load (duration×severity) of lower respiratory illness symptoms was less by a factor of 0.31 (99%CI; 0.07 to 0.96) in males taking the probiotic compared with placebo but increased by a factor of 2.2 (0.41 to 27) in females. Differences in use of cold and flu medication mirrored these symptoms. The observed effects on URTI had too much uncertainty for a decisive outcome. There were clear reductions in the magnitude of acute exercise-induced changes in some cytokines. CONCLUSION L. fermentum may be a useful nutritional adjunct for healthy exercising males. However, uncertainty in the effects of supplementation on URTI and on symptoms in females needs to be resolved. TRIAL REGISTRATION The trial was registered in the Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12611000006943).The study was funded by Christian Hansen A/S, Probiomics and the Australian Institute of Sport

Using conditional kernel density estimation for wind power density forecasting

Of the various renewable energy resources, wind power is widely recognized as one of the most promising. The management of wind farms and electricity systems can benefit greatly from the availability of estimates of the probability distribution of wind power generation. However, most research has focused on point forecasting of wind power. In this paper, we develop an approach to producing density forecasts for the wind power generated at individual wind farms. Our interest is in intraday data and prediction from 1 to 72 hours ahead. We model wind power in terms of wind speed and wind direction. In this framework, there are two key uncertainties. First, there is the inherent uncertainty in wind speed and direction, and we model this using a bivariate VARMA-GARCH (vector autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, with a Student t distribution, in the Cartesian space of wind speed and direction. Second, there is the stochastic nature of the relationship of wind power to wind speed (described by the power curve), and to wind direction. We model this using conditional kernel density (CKD) estimation, which enables a nonparametric modeling of the conditional density of wind power. Using Monte Carlo simulation of the VARMA-GARCH model and CKD estimation, density forecasts of wind speed and direction are converted to wind power density forecasts. Our work is novel in several respects: previous wind power studies have not modeled a stochastic power curve; to accommodate time evolution in the power curve, we incorporate a time decay factor within the CKD method; and the CKD method is conditional on a density, rather than a single value. The new approach is evaluated using datasets from four Greek wind farms

Pink Lady & Sundowner apples

This bulletin summaries for all Australian growers the present technical information concerning Pink Lady and Sundownerhttps://researchlibrary.agric.wa.gov.au/bulletins/1273/thumbnail.jp

Dimethylsulfide (DMS) production in polar oceans is resilient to ocean acidification

Emissions of dimethylsulfide (DMS) from the polar oceans play a key role in atmospheric processes and climate. Therefore, it is important we increase our understanding of how DMS production in these regions may respond to environmental change. The polar oceans are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA). However, our understanding of the polar DMS response is limited to two studies conducted in Arctic waters, where in both cases DMS concentrations decreased with increasing acidity. Here, we report on our findings from seven summertime shipboard microcosm experiments undertaken in a variety of locations in the Arctic Ocean and Southern Ocean. These experiments reveal no significant effects of short term OA on the net production of DMS by planktonic communities. This is in contrast to identical experiments from temperate NW European shelf waters where surface ocean communities responded to OA with significant increases in dissolved DMS concentrations. A meta-analysis of the findings from both temperate and polar waters (n=18 experiments) reveals clear regional differences in the DMS response to OA. We suggest that these regional differences in DMS response reflect the natural variability in carbonate chemistry to which the respective communities may already be adapted. Future temperate oceans could be more sensitive to OA resulting in a change in DMS emissions to the atmosphere, whilst perhaps surprisingly DMS emissions from the polar oceans may remain relatively unchanged. By demonstrating that DMS emissions from geographically distinct regions may vary in response to OA, our results may facilitate a better understanding of Earth's future climate. Our study suggests that the way in which processes that generate DMS respond to OA may be regionally distinct and this should be taken into account in predicting future DMS emissions and their influence on Earth's climate