Coast-to-Interior Gradient in Recent Northwest Greenland Precipitation Trends (1952–2012)

The spatial and temporal variability of precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet is an essential component of surface mass balance, which has been declining in recent years with rising temperatures. We present an analysis of precipitation trends in northwest (NW) Greenland (1952–2012) using instrumental (coastal meteorological station) and proxy records (snow pits and ice cores) to characterize the precipitation gradient from the coast to the ice sheet interior. Snow-pit-derived precipitation near the coast (1950–2000) has increased (~7% decade−1, p \u3c 0.01) whereas there is no significant change observed in interior snow pits. This trend holds for 1981–2012, where calculated precipitation changes decrease in magnitude with increasing distance from the coast: 13% decade−1 (2.4 mm water equivalent (w.e.) decade−2) at coastal Thule air base (AB), 8.6% decade−1 (4.7 mm w.e. decade−2) at the 2Barrel ice core site 150 km from Thule AB, −5.2% decade−1 (1.7 mm w.e. decade−2) at Camp Century located 205 km from Thule AB, and 4.4% decade−1 (1.0 mm w.e. decade−2) at B26 located 500 km from Thule AB. In general, annually averaged precipitation and annually and seasonally averaged mean air temperatures observed at Thule AB follow trends observed in composite coastal Greenland time series, with both notably indicating winter as the fastest warming season in recent periods (1981–2012). Trends (1961–2012) in seasonal precipitation differ, specifically with NW Greenland summer precipitation increasing (~0.6 mm w.e. decade−2) in contrast with decreasing summer precipitation in the coastal composite time series (3.8 mm w.e. decade−2). Differences in precipitation trends between NW Greenland and coastal composite Greenland underscore the heterogeneity in climate influences affecting precipitation. In particular, recent (1981–2012) changes in NW Greenland annual precipitation are likely a response to a weakening North Atlantic oscillation

Recent Accumulation Variability in Northwest Greenland from Ground-Penetrating Radar and Shallow Cores along the Greenland Inland Traverse

Accumulation is a key parameter governing the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. Several studies have documented the spatial variability of accumulation over wide spatial scales, primarily using point data, remote sensing or modeling. Direct measurements of spatially extensive, detailed profiles of accumulation in Greenland, however, are rare. We used 400 MHz ground-penetrating radar along the 1009 km route of the Greenland Inland Traverse from Thule to Summit during April and May of 2011, to image continuous internal reflecting horizons. We dated these horizons using ice-core chemistry at each end of the traverse. Using density profiles measured along the traverse, we determined the depth to the horizons and the corresponding water-equivalent accumulation rates. The measured accumulation rates vary from ~0.1 m w.e. a–1 in the interior to ~0.7 m w.e. a–1 near the coast, and correspond broadly with existing published model results, though there are some excursions. Comparison of our recent accumulation rates with those collected along a similar route in the 1950s shows a ~10% increase in accumulation rates over the past 52 years along most of the traverse route. This implies that the increased water vapor capacity of warmer air is increasing accumulation in the interior of Greenland

Looking back on 50 years of literature to understand the potential impact of influenza on extrapulmonary medical outcomes

We conducted a scoping review of the epidemiological literature from the past 50 years to document the contribution of influenza virus infection to extrapulmonary clinical outcomes. We identified 99 publications reporting 243 associations using many study designs, exposure and outcome definitions, and methods. Laboratory confirmation of influenza was used in only 28 (12%) estimates, mostly in case-control and self-controlled case series study designs. We identified 50 individual clinical conditions associated with influenza. The most numerous estimates were of cardiocirculatory diseases, neurological/neuromuscular diseases, and fetal/newborn disorders, with myocardial infarction the most common individual outcome. Due to heterogeneity, we could not generate summary estimates of effect size, but of 130 relative effect estimates, 105 (81%) indicated an elevated risk of extrapulmonary outcome with influenza exposure. The literature is indicative of systemic complications of influenza virus infection, the requirement for more effective influenza control, and a need for robust confirmatory studies

Excess hospitalizations and mortality associated with seasonal influenza in Spain, 2008-2018

Influenza may trigger complications, particularly in at-risk groups, potentially leading to hospitalization or death. However, due to lack of routine testing, influenza cases are infrequently coded with influenza-specific diagnosis. Statistical models using influenza activity as an explanatory variable can be used to estimate annual hospitalizations and deaths associated with influenza. Our study aimed to estimate the clinical and economic burden of severe influenza in Spain, considering such models. The study comprised ten epidemic seasons (2008/2009-2017/2018) and used two approaches: (i) a direct method of estimating the seasonal influenza hospitalization, based on the number of National Health Service hospitalizations with influenza-specific International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes (ICD-9: 487-488; ICD-10: J09-J11), as primary or secondary diagnosis; (ii) an indirect method of estimating excess hospitalizations and deaths using broader groups of ICD codes in time-series models, computed for six age groups and four groups of diagnoses: pneumonia or influenza (ICD-9: 480-488, 517.1; ICD-10: J09-J18), respiratory (ICD-9: 460-519; ICD-10: J00-J99), respiratory or cardiovascular (C&R, ICD-9: 390-459, 460-519; ICD-10: I00-I99, J00-J99), and all-cause. Means, excluding the H1N1pdm09 pandemic (2009/2010), are reported in this study. The mean number of hospitalizations with a diagnosis of influenza per season was 13,063, corresponding to 28.1 cases per 100,000 people. The mean direct annual cost of these hospitalizations was €45.7 million, of which 65.7% was generated by patients with comorbidities. Mean annual influenza-associated C&R hospitalizations were estimated at 34,894 (min: 16,546; max: 52,861), corresponding to 75.0 cases per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 63.3-86.3) for all ages and 335.3 (95% CI: 293.2-377.5) in patients aged ≥ 65 years. We estimate 3.8 influenza-associated excess C&R hospitalizations for each hospitalization coded with an influenza-specific diagnosis in patients aged ≥ 65 years. The mean direct annual cost of the estimated excess C&R hospitalizations was €142.9 million for all ages and €115.9 million for patients aged ≥ 65 years. Mean annual influenza-associated all-cause mortality per 100,000 people was estimated at 27.7 for all ages. Results suggest a relevant under-detected burden of influenza mostly in the elderly population, but not neglectable in younger people. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-023-08015-3

Collective Animal Behavior from Bayesian Estimation and Probability Matching

Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is based on empirical fits to observations and we lack first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching.
In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability given by the Bayesian estimation that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior

Physical and optical characteristics of heavily melted “rotten” Arctic sea ice

Field investigations of the properties of heavily melted “rotten” Arctic sea ice were carried out on shorefast and drifting ice off the coast of Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, during the melt season. While no formal criteria exist to qualify when ice becomes rotten, the objective of this study was to sample melting ice at the point at which its structural and optical properties are sufficiently advanced beyond the peak of the summer season. Baseline data on the physical (temperature, salinity, density, microstructure) and optical (light scattering) properties of shorefast ice were recorded in May and June 2015. In July of both 2015 and 2017, small boats were used to access drifting rotten ice within ∼32&thinsp;km of Utqiaġvik. Measurements showed that pore space increased as ice temperature increased (−8 to 0&thinsp;∘C), ice salinity decreased (10 to 0&thinsp;ppt), and bulk density decreased (0.9 to 0.6&thinsp;g&thinsp;cm−3). Changes in pore space were characterized with thin-section microphotography and X-ray micro-computed tomography in the laboratory. These analyses yielded changes in average brine inclusion number density (which decreased from 32 to 0.01&thinsp;mm−3), mean pore size (which increased from 80&thinsp;µm to 3&thinsp;mm), and total porosity (increased from 0&thinsp;% to &gt;&thinsp;45&thinsp;%) and structural anisotropy (variable, with values of generally less than 0.7). Additionally, light-scattering coefficients of the ice increased from approximately 0.06 to &gt;&thinsp;0.35&thinsp;cm−1 as the ice melt progressed. Together, these findings indicate that the properties of Arctic sea ice at the end of melt season are significantly distinct from those of often-studied summertime ice. If such rotten ice were to become more prevalent in a warmer Arctic with longer melt seasons, this could have implications for the exchange of fluid and heat at the ocean surface.</p

Neuroendocrine carcinoma arising in soft tissue: three case reports and literature review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neuroendocrine tumours (NET) are tumours arising from neuroendocrine cells of neural crest origin. They are characterised by the presence of neurosecretory granules which react positively to silver stains and to specific markers including neuron specific enolase, synaptophysin and chromogranin. Metastasis to the skin occurs infrequently but primary soft tissue NET is excessively rare.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report our experience with 3 such cases. In the first case, the NET originated in muscle and was treated with wide surgical excision and adjuvant radiotherapy. The second case presented as a subcutaneous mass in the foot and the tumour was positive on ¹²³I mIBG scan. She has had prolonged recurrence-free survival following primary hypo-fractionated radiotherapy. In the third case, a cutaneous nodule proved to be a NET and at surgery, lymph node disease was present. He has remained disease-free after surgical excision without the need for external beam radiotherapy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These tumours appear to have a good prognosis. Complete excision offers potentially curative treatment. Adjuvant radiotherapy may be helpful when the tumour margin is narrow. For patients with unresectable disease or where surgery would not be appropriate, radiotherapy appears to be an effective therapeutic option.</p