Time Spent Exercising and Obesity: An Application of Lewbel’s Instrumental Variables Method

This paper examines the role physical activity plays in determining body mass using data from the American Time Use Survey. Our work is the first to address the measurement error that arises when time use during a single day—rather than average daily time use over an extended period—is used as an explanatory variable. We show that failing to account for day-to-day variation in activities results in the effects of time use on a typical day being understated. Furthermore, we account for the possibility that physical activity and body mass are jointly determined by implementing Lewbel’s instrumental variables estimator that exploits first-stage heteroskedasticity rather than traditional exclusion restrictions. Our results suggest that, on average, physical activity reduces body mass by less than would be predicted by simple calorie expenditure-to-weight formulas, implying compensatory behavior such as increased caloric intake

Did Social-Distancing Measures in Kentucky Help to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve?

In the absence of a vaccine or more effective treatment options, containing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) must rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing measures in March and April of 2020, though they varied in both timing and scope. Kentucky began by closing public schools and restaurant dining rooms on March 16th before progressing to closing other non-essential businesses and eventually issuing a “Healthy at Home” order with restrictions similar to the shelter-in-place (SIPO) orders adopted by other states. We aim to quantify the impact of these measures on COVID-19 case growth in the state. An event-study model allows us to link adoption of social distancing measures across the Midwest and South to the growth rate of cases, allowing for effects to emerge gradually to account for the lag between infection and positive test result. We then use the results to predict how the number of cases would have evolved in Kentucky in the absence of these policy measures – in other words, if the state had relied on voluntary social distancing alone. We estimate that, by April 25, Kentucky would have had 44,482 confirmed COVID-19 cases without social distancing restrictions, as opposed to the 3,857 actually observed

From Labyrinthine Patterns to Spiral Turbulence

A new mechanism for spiral vortex nucleation in nongradient reaction diffusion systems is proposed. It involves two key ingredients: An Ising-Bloch type front bifurcation and an instability of a planar front to transverse perturbations. Vortex nucleation by this mechanism plays an important role in inducing a transition from labyrinthine patterns to spiral turbulence. PACS numbers: 05.45.+b, 82.20.MjComment: 4 pages uuencoded compressed postscrip

Instability and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Alternans in Paced Cardiac Tissue

We derive an equation that governs the spatiotemporal dynamics of small amplitude alternans in paced cardiac tissue. We show that a pattern-forming linear instability leads to the spontaneous formation of stationary or traveling waves whose nodes divide the tissue into regions with opposite phase of oscillation of action potential duration. This instability is important because it creates dynamically an heterogeneous electrical substrate for inducing fibrillation if the tissue size exceeds a fraction of the pattern wavelength. We compute this wavelength analytically as a function of three basic length scales characterizing dispersion and inter-cellular electrical coupling.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitted to PR

Propagation Failure in Excitable Media

We study a mechanism of pulse propagation failure in excitable media where stable traveling pulse solutions appear via a subcritical pitchfork bifurcation. The bifurcation plays a key role in that mechanism. Small perturbations, externally applied or from internal instabilities, may cause pulse propagation failure (wave breakup) provided the system is close enough to the bifurcation point. We derive relations showing how the pitchfork bifurcation is unfolded by weak curvature or advective field perturbations and use them to demonstrate wave breakup. We suggest that the recent observations of wave breakup in the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction induced either by an electric field or a transverse instability are manifestations of this mechanism.Comment: 8 pages. Aric Hagberg: http://cnls.lanl.gov/~aric; Ehud Meron:http://www.bgu.ac.il/BIDR/research/staff/meron.htm

Remodelling of human atrial K+ currents but not ion channel expression by chronic β-blockade

Chronic β-adrenoceptor antagonist (β-blocker) treatment in patients is associated with a potentially anti-arrhythmic prolongation of the atrial action potential duration (APD), which may involve remodelling of repolarising K+ currents. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of chronic β-blockade on transient outward, sustained and inward rectifier K+ currents (ITO, IKSUS and IK1) in human atrial myocytes and on the expression of underlying ion channel subunits. Ion currents were recorded from human right atrial isolated myocytes using the whole-cell-patch clamp technique. Tissue mRNA and protein levels were measured using real time RT-PCR and Western blotting. Chronic β-blockade was associated with a 41% reduction in ITO density: 9.3 ± 0.8 (30 myocytes, 15 patients) vs 15.7 ± 1.1 pA/pF (32, 14), p < 0.05; without affecting its voltage-, time- or rate dependence. IK1 was reduced by 34% at −120 mV (p < 0.05). Neither IKSUS, nor its increase by acute β-stimulation with isoprenaline, was affected by chronic β-blockade. Mathematical modelling suggested that the combination of ITO- and IK1-decrease could result in a 28% increase in APD90. Chronic β-blockade did not alter mRNA or protein expression of the ITO pore-forming subunit, Kv4.3, or mRNA expression of the accessory subunits KChIP2, KChAP, Kvβ1, Kvβ2 or frequenin. There was no reduction in mRNA expression of Kir2.1 or TWIK to account for the reduction in IK1. A reduction in atrial ITO and IK1 associated with chronic β-blocker treatment in patients may contribute to the associated action potential prolongation, and this cannot be explained by a reduction in expression of associated ion channel subunits

Size-Dependent Transition to High-Dimensional Chaotic Dynamics in a Two-Dimensional Excitable Medium

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an excitable medium with multiple spiral defects is shown to vary smoothly with system size from short-lived transients for small systems to extensive chaos for large systems. A comparison of the Lyapunov dimension density with the average spiral defect density suggests an average dimension per spiral defect varying between three and seven. We discuss some implications of these results for experimental studies of excitable media.Comment: 5 pages, Latex, 4 figure

Competition and quality indicators in the health care sector: empirical evidence from the Dutch hospital sector

textabstractThere is much debate about the effect of competition in healthcare and especially the effect of competition on the quality of healthcare, although empirical evidence on this subject is mixed. The Netherlands provides an interesting case in this debate. The Dutch system could be characterized as a system involving managed competition and mandatory healthcare insurance. Information about the quality of care provided by hospitals has been publicly available since 2008. In this paper, we evaluate the relationship between quality scores for three diagnosis groups and the market power indicators of hospitals. We estimate the impact of competition on quality in an environment of liberalized pricing. For this research, we used unique price and production data relating to three diagnosis groups (cataract, adenoid and tonsils, bladder tumor) produced by Dutch hospitals in the period 2008–2011. We also used the quality indicators relating to these diagnosis groups. We reveal a negative relationship between market share and quality score for two of the three diagnosis groups studied, meaning that hospitals in competitive markets have better quality scores than those in concentrated markets. We therefore conclude that more competition is associated with higher quality scores

Toward Innovative, Cost-Effective, and Systemic Solutions to Improve Outcomes and Well-Being of Military Families Affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder

The burdens faced by military families who have a child with autism are unique. The usual challenges of securing diagnostic, treatment, and educational services are compounded by life circumstances that include the anxieties of war, frequent relocation and separation, and a demand structure that emphasizes mission readiness and service. Recently established military autism-specific health care benefits set the stage for community-viable and cost-effective solutions that can achieve better outcomes for children and greater well-being for families. Here we argue for implementation of evidence-based solutions focused on reducing age of diagnosis and improving access to early intervention, as well as establishment of a tiered menu of services, individualized to the child and family, that fit with the military ethos and system of health care. Absence of this new model of care could compromise the utility and sustainability of the autism-specific benefit