Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?

Fluctuations in investor risk aversion are often cited as a factor explaining crises on financial markets. The alternation between periods of bullishness prompting investors to make risky investments, and periods of bearishness, when they retreat to the safest forms of investments, could be at the root of sharp fluctuations in asset prices. One problem in the assessment of these different periods is clearly distinguishing the risk perceived by agents from risk aversion itself. There are several types of risk aversion indicators used by financial institutions (the VIX, the LCVI, the GRAI, etc.). These indices, which are estimated in diverse ways, often show differing developments, although it is not possible to directly assess which is the most accurate. An interesting method in this respect is to link the indicators to financial crises. In principle, financial crises should coincide with periods in which risk aversion increases. Here we estimate probabilities of financial crises –currency and stock market crises– using the different risk aversion indicators as explanatory variables. This allows us to assess their respective predictive powers. The tests carried out show that risk aversion does tend to increase before crises, at least when it is measured by the most relevant indices. This variable is a good leading indicator of stock market crises, but is less so for currency crises.

Two-way interplays between capital buffers, credit and output: evidence from French banks

We assess the extent to which capital buffers (the capital banks hold in excess of the regulatory minimum) exacerbate rather than reduce the cyclical behavior of credit. We empirically study the relationships between output gap, capital buffers and loan growth with firm-level data for French banks over the period 1993—2009. Our findings reveal that bank capital buffers intensify the cyclical credit fluctuations arising from the output gap developments, all the more as better quality capital is considered. Moreover, by performing Granger causality tests at the bank level, we find evidence of a two-way causality between capital buffers and loan growth, pointing to mutually reinforcing mechanisms. Overall, those empirical results lend support to a countercyclical financial regulation that focuses on highest-quality capital and aims at smoothing loan growth.Bank Capital Regulation, Procyclicality, Capital Buffers, Business Cycle Fluctuations, Basel III.

La croissance des crédits dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale est-elle excessive ?

Les taux de croissance du crédit dépassent ou avoisinent 30 à 50 % l’an dans certains pays d’Europe centrale, orientale et du sud-est (pays baltes, Bulgarie, Roumanie, Albanie et Macédoine). Ces taux de croissance élevés sont-ils susceptibles de générer des « excès » de crédit, dommageables à l’économie ? Ou s’agit-il d’un effet normal du rattrapage, pour des pays peu bancarisés au moment de leur transition ?Crédits bancaires, convergence, rattrapage.

Power Converters of the Main Dipole and Quadrupole Magnet Strings of the Antiproton Decelerator at CERN

The two main power converters for the dipoles (D) and quadrupoles (Q) are presented as part of the complex power converter system of the Antiproton Decelerator. The operational requirements and the performance specifications for deceleration from 3.5 to 0.1 GeV/c are discussed. The layout and design of the power part, consisting of a 12-pulse thyristor rectifier and a switch-mode parallel active filter (AF), and of the precision regulation are described. The alternatives for integrating the AF into the current and voltage regulation loops are outlined. Problems encountered and results of tests are reported

A new classification system for degenerative spondylolisthesis of the lumbar spine

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.PURPOSE: There is no consensus for a comprehensive analysis of degenerative spondylolisthesis of the lumbar spine (DSLS). A new classification system for DSLS based on sagittal alignment was proposed. Its clinical relevance was explored. METHODS: Health-related quality-of-life scales (HRQOLs) and clinical parameters were collected: SF-12, ODI, and low back and leg pain visual analog scales (BP-VAS, LP-VAS). Radiographic analysis included Meyerding grading and sagittal parameters: segmental lordosis (SL), L1-S1 lumbar lordosis (LL), T1-T12 thoracic kyphosis (TK), pelvic incidence (PI), pelvic tilt (PT), and sagittal vertical axis (SVA). Patients were classified according to three main types-1A: preserved LL and SL; 1B: preserved LL and reduced SL (≤5°); 2A: PI-LL ≥10° without pelvic compensation (PT < 25°); 2B: PI-LL ≥10° with pelvic compensation (PT ≥ 25°); type 3: global sagittal malalignment (SVA ≥40 mm). RESULTS: 166 patients (119 F: 47 M) suffering from DSLS were included. Mean age was 67.1 ± 11 years. DSLS demographics were, respectively: type 1A: 73 patients, type 1B: 3, type 2A: 8, type 2B: 22, and type 3: 60. Meyerding grading was: grade 1 (n = 124); grade 2 (n = 24). Affected levels were: L4-L5 (n = 121), L3-L4 (n = 34), L2-L3 (n = 6), and L5-S1 (n = 5). Mean sagittal parameter values were: PI: 59.3° ± 11.9°; PT: 24.3° ± 7.6°; SVA: 29.1 ± 42.2 mm; SL: 18.2° ± 8.1°. DSLS types were correlated with age, ODI and SF-12 PCS (ρ = 0.34, p < 0.05; ρ = 0.33, p < 0.05; ρ = -0.20, and p = 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION: This classification was consistent with age and HRQOLs and could be a preoperative assessment tool. Its therapeutic impact has yet to be validated. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 4.No funds were received in support of this work. No benefits in any forms have been or will be received from a commercial party related directly or indirectly to the subject of this manuscript

Production/maintenance cooperative scheduling using multi-agents and fuzzy logic

Within companies, production is directly concerned with the manufacturing schedule, but other services like sales, maintenance, purchasing or workforce management should also have an influence on this schedule. These services often have together a hierarchical relationship, i.e. the leading function (most of the time sales or production) generates constraints defining the framework within which the other functions have to satisfy their own objectives. We show how the multi-agent paradigm, often used in scheduling for its ability to distribute decision-making, can also provide a framework for making several functions cooperate in the schedule performance. Production and maintenance have been chosen as an example: having common resources (the machines), their activities are actually often conflicting. We show how to use a fuzzy logic in order to model the temporal degrees of freedom of the two functions, and show that this approach may allow one to obtain a schedule that provides a better compromise between the satisfaction of the respective objectives of the two functions

Cellular expression, trafficking, and function of two isoforms of human ULBP5/RAET1G

Background: The activating immunoreceptor NKG2D is expressed on Natural Killer (NK) cells and subsets of T cells. NKG2D contributes to anti-tumour and anti-viral immune responses in vitro and in vivo. The ligands for NKG2D in humans are diverse proteins of the MIC and ULBP/RAET families that are upregulated on the surface of virally infected cells and tumours. Two splicing variants of ULBP5/RAET1G have been cloned previously, but not extensively characterised. Methodology/Principal Findings: We pursue a number of approaches to characterise the expression, trafficking, and function of the two isoforms of ULBP5/RAET1G. We show that both transcripts are frequently expressed in cell lines derived from epithelial cancers, and in primary breast cancers. The full-length transcript, RAET1G1, is predicted to encode a molecule with transmembrane and cytoplasmic domains that are unique amongst NKG2D ligands. Using specific anti-RAET1G1 antiserum to stain tissue microarrays we show that RAET1G1 expression is highly restricted in normal tissues. RAET1G1 was expressed at a low level in normal gastrointestinal epithelial cells in a similar pattern to MICA. Both RAET1G1 and MICA showed increased expression in the gut of patients with celiac disease. In contrast to healthy tissues the RAET1G1 antiserum stained a wide variety or different primary tumour sections. Both endogenously expressed and transfected RAET1G1 was mainly found inside the cell, with a minority of the protein reaching the cell surface. Conversely the truncated splicing variant of RAET1G2 was shown to encode a soluble molecule that could be secreted from cells. Secreted RAET1G2 was shown to downregulate NKG2D receptor expression on NK cells and hence may represent a novel tumour immune evasion strategy. Conclusions/Significance: We demonstrate that the expression patterns of ULBP5RAET1G are very similar to the well-characterised NKG2D ligand, MICA. However the two isoforms of ULBP5/RAET1G have very different cellular localisations that are likely to reflect unique functionality