The relationship between reported fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in African children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fever has traditionally served as the entry point for presumptive treatment of malaria in African children. However, recent changes in the epidemiology of malaria across many places in Africa would suggest that the predictive accuracy of a fever history as a marker of disease has changed prompting calls for the change to diagnosis-based treatment strategies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from six national malaria indicator surveys undertaken between 2007 and 2009, the relationship between childhood (6-59 months) reported fever on the day of survey and the likelihood of coincidental <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>infection recorded using a rapid diagnostic test was evaluated across a range of endemicities characteristic of Africa today.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 16,903 children surveyed, 3% were febrile and infected, 9% were febrile without infection, 12% were infected but were not febrile and 76% were uninfected and not febrile. Children with fever on the day of the survey had a 1.98 times greater chance of being infected with <it>P. falciparum </it>compared to children without a history of fever on the day of the survey after adjusting for age and location (OR 1.98; 95% CI 1.74-2.34). There was a strong linear relationship between the percentage of febrile children with infection and infection prevalence (R²= 0.9147). The prevalence of infection in reported fevers was consistently greater than would be expected solely by chance and this increased with increasing transmission intensity. The data suggest that in areas where community-based infection prevalence in childhood is above 34-37%, 50% or more of fevers are likely to be associated with infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The potential benefits of diagnosis will depend on the prevalence of infection among children who report fever. The study has demonstrated a predictable relationship between parasite prevalence in the community and risks of infection among febrile children suggesting that current maps of parasite prevalence could be used to guide diagnostic strategies in Africa.</p

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of mass screening and treatment for reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Past experience and modelling suggest that, in most cases, mass treatment strategies are not likely to succeed in interrupting Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission. However, this does not preclude their use to reduce disease burden. Mass screening and treatment (MSAT) is preferred to mass drug administration (MDA), as the latter involves massive over-use of drugs. This paper reports simulations of the incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) of wellconducted MSAT campaigns as a strategy for P. falciparum malaria disease-burden reduction in settings with varying receptivity (ability of the combined vector population in a setting to transmit disease) and access to case management. METHODS: MSAT incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated in different sub-Saharan African settings using simulation models of the dynamics of malaria and a literature-based MSAT cost estimate. Imported infections were simulated at a rate of two per 1,000 population per annum. These estimates were compared to the ICERs of scaling up case management or insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage in each baseline health system, in the absence of MSAT. RESULTS: MSAT averted most episodes, and resulted in the lowest ICERs, in settings with a moderate level of disease burden. At a low pre-intervention entomological inoculation rate (EIR) of two infectious bites per adult per annum (IBPAPA) MSAT was never more cost-effective than scaling up ITNs or case management coverage. However at pre-intervention entomological inoculation rate (EIRs) of 20 and 50 IBPAPA and ITN coverage levels of 40 or 60%, respectively, the ICER of MSAT was similar to that of scaling up ITN coverage further. CONCLUSIONS: In all the transmission settings considered, achieving a minimal level of ITN coverage is a 'best buy'. At low transmission, MSAT probably is not worth considering. Instead, MSAT may be suitable at medium to high levels of transmission and at moderate ITN coverage. undertaken as a burden-reducing intervention, MSAT should be continued indefinitely and should complement, not replace, case management and vector control intervention