Retrospective space-time analysis of H5N1 Avian Influenza emergence in Thailand

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus remains a worldwide threat to human and animal health, while the mechanisms explaining its epizootic emergence and re-emergence in poultry are largely unknown. Data from Thailand, a country that experienced significant epidemics in poultry and has recorded suspicious cases of HPAI on a daily basis since 2004, are used here to study the process of emergence. A spatial approach is employed to describe all HPAI H5N1 virus epizootics from 2004 to 2008 and to characterize the pattern of emergence: multiple independent introductions of the virus followed by moderate local spread vs. very rare emergences followed by strong local spread and rare long range diffusion jumps. Sites where epizootics originate (by foreign introduction, local persistence, or long range jump) were selected from those to which the disease subsequently spreads using a filter based on relative date and position. The spatial distribution of these selected foci was statistically analyzed, and to differentiate environmental factors from long range diffusion, we investigate the relationship of these foci with environmental exposure factors and with rearing characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During each wave of epizootics, the temporal occurrence of cases did not show a temporal interruption of more than a week. All foci were globally clustered; i.e., more than 90% of cases had a previous case within a 10 km range and a 21 day period of time, showing a strong local spread. We were able to estimate 60 km as the maximum distance for the local farm to farm dissemination process. The remaining "emergent" cases have occurred randomly over Thailand and did not show specific location, clusters, or trends. We found that these foci are not statistically related to specific environmental conditions or land cover characteristics, and most of them may be interpreted as long range diffusion jumps due to commercial practices.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that only a few foci appear to have been at the origin of each HPAI epidemic wave, leading to the practical action that surveillance and control must focus on farm to farm transmission rather than on emergence or wild fauna.</p

Puberty and Inhibin B in 35 Adolescents With Pituitary Stalk Interruption Syndrome

International audienc

Late toxicity comparison of alkylating-based maintenance regimen with cyclophosphamide (VAC) vs ifosfamide (VAI) in Ewing sarcoma survivors treated in the randomized clinical trial Euro-EWING99-R1 in France

International audienceIn Euro-EWING99-R1 randomized trial, cyclophosphamide was shown to be noninferior to ifosfamide in the consolidation of standard-risk Ewing sarcoma (SR-EWS) after a common induction with VIDE (vincristine-ifosfamide-doxorubicin-etoposide). We present the results of the late effects analysis of VAC (vincristine-dactinomycin-cyclophoshamide) vs VAI (vincristine-dactinomycin-ifosfamide) conducted in Euro-EWING99-R1 French cohort. Of 267 French randomized patients, 204 were alive and free-of-relapse at 5-years including 172 with available long-term follow-up data concerning cardiac, renal and/or gonadal functions (sex-ratio M/F = 1.3, median age at diagnosis = 14 years): 84 randomized in VAC (median cumulative doses: cyclophosphamide = 9.7 g/m2, ifosfamide = 59.4 g/m2) and 88 in VAI (ifosfamide = 97.1 g/m2). With a median follow-up of 10 years (range = 5-17), five late relapses and five second malignancies were recorded. The 10-year event-free survival among 5-year free-of-relapse survivors was similar between VAC and VAI (93% vs 95%, P =.63). We estimated the 10-year cumulative probabilities of cardiac and kidney toxicities at 4.4% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.1%-7.6%) and 34.8% (95% CI = 26.8%-42.0%), respectively. Cardiac toxicity cumulative probability was similar in both arms, whereas kidney toxicity was higher in VAI (at 10 years, 43.0% vs 25.7%, P =.02), resulting from significant difference in glomerular toxicity (31.1% vs 13.1%, P &lt;.01). At 10 years, gonadal toxicity was observed in 27% and 28% of pubertal men and women, respectively, without significant difference between VAC and VAI. Kidney and gonadal toxicities represent major issues in Euro-EWING99-R1, with significantly higher risk of kidney toxicities with VAI, without significant gonadal toxicity reduction. These results support the need to limit cumulative doses of both alkylating agents and to use mixed regimen as in VIDE-VAC or VDC/IE (vincristine-doxorubicin-cyclophoshamide/ifosfamide-etoposide)