Asymmetry of Shocks and Convergence in Selected Asean Countries: A Dynamic Analysis

This paper aims to investigate whether structural shocks among ASEAN countries are becoming more symmetrical over time, thus indicating whether this region is becoming better prepared to introduce a common monetary policy. For that purpose a dynamic space-state model that complements the conventional Structural VAR models used in the existing literature was estimated by using the Kalman filter so that the evolution of the degree of shock symmetry and, therefore, the evolution in the degree of convergence could be identified over time, distinguishing between a country's convergence with a regional partner and a more general trend of convergence with the rest of the world.The results showed that in the majority of cases there has been an increase in the degree of convergence of demand shocks in recent years. More importantly, it also showed an increase in divergence in supply shocks for most cases since the beginning of the 90's even when taking into account the Asian Financial Crisis. This is especially true for the periphery countries suggesting that the Philippines and Thailand are not only not converging but actually diverging from the core group. These results have important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common monetary policy in the region.Optimum currency areas; Monetary integration; Asymmetric shocks; Convergence; Asean.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN: Implications for the Prospects of Monetary Integration in the Region

This paper investigates, for the first time, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in all five founding members of ASEAN. For this purpose, a three variable recursive VAR model was applied which uses the Choleski decomposition method along the distribution chain of pricing, using data for the period 1968 to 2001. The results show that a strong case for entering a currency union can only be made for the cases of Singapore and Malaysia as in these countries there appears to be a case of exchange rate disconnect. A case for a common currency can also be made for Indonesia but for entirely different reasons. For this country, an independent monetary policy is a clear source of shocks to the economy and therefore a currency union would tend to eliminate then. A weaker case for a common currency can be made for the Philippines as evidence of some exchange rate pass-through to inflation was found but not to import prices. Finally, Thailand exhibits a clear case of exchange rate pass-through to import prices (but not to inflation) and thus evidence that a flexible exchange rate might be preferable as it provides the means to improve the country’s price competitiveness.Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Monetary Integration; Asean

Asymmetry of Shocks and Convergence in Selected Asean Countries: A Dynamic Analysis

This paper aims to investigate whether structural shocks among ASEAN countries are becoming more symmetrical over time, thus indicating whether this region is becoming better prepared to introduce a common monetary policy. For that purpose a dynamic space-state model that complements the conventional Structural VAR models used in the existing literature was estimated by using the Kalman filter so that the evolution of the degree of shock symmetry and, therefore, the evolution in the degree of convergence could be identified over time, distinguishing between a country’s convergence with a regional partner and a more general trend of convergence with the rest of the world. The results showed that in the majority of cases there has been an increase in the degree of convergence of demand shocks in recent years. More importantly, it also showed an increase in divergence in supply shocks for most cases since the beginning of the 90’s even when taking into account the Asian Financial Crisis. This is especially true for the periphery countries suggesting that the Philippines and Thailand are not only not converging but actually diverging from the core group. These results have important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common monetary policy in the region.Optimum currency areas; Monetary integration; Asymmetric shocks; Convergence; Asean.

Asymmetry of Shocks and Convergence in Selected Asean Countries: A Dynamic Analysis

Formerly at Economic Policy Research Unit (NIPE), Universidade do Minho, now at University of ExeterThis paper aims to investigate whether structural shocks among ASEAN countries are becoming more symmetrical over time, thus indicating whether this region is becoming better prepared to introduce a common monetary policy. For that purpose a dynamic space-state model that complements the conventional Structural VAR models used in the existing literature was estimated by using the Kalman filter so that the evolution of the degree of shock symmetry and, therefore, the evolution in the degree of convergence could be identified over time, distinguishing between a country’s convergence with a regional partner and a more general trend of convergence with the rest of the world. The results showed that in the majority of cases there has been an increase in the degree of convergence of demand shocks in recent years. More importantly, it also showed an increase in divergence in supply shocks for most cases since the beginning of the 90’s even when taking into account the Asian Financial Crisis. This is especially true for the periphery countries suggesting that the Philippines and Thailand are not only not converging but actually diverging from the core group. These results have important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common monetary policy in the regio

Exchange rate pass-through in ASEAN : implications for the prospects of monetary integration in the region

This paper investigates, for the first time, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in all five founding members of ASEAN. For this purpose, a three variable recursive VAR model was applied which uses the Choleski decomposition method along the distribution chain of pricing, using data for the period 1968 to 2001. The results show that a strong case for entering a currency union can only be made for the cases of Singapore and Malaysia as in these countries there appears to be a case of exchange rate disconnect. A case for a common currency can also be made for Indonesia but for entirely different reasons. For this country, an independent monetary policy is a clear source of shocks to the economy and therefore a currency union would tend to eliminate then. A weaker case for a common currency can be made for the Philippines as evidence of some exchange rate pass-through to inflation was found but not to import prices. Finally, Thailand exhibits a clear case of exchange rate pass-through to import prices (but not to inflation) and thus evidence that a flexible exchange rate might be preferable as it provides the means to improve the country’s price competitiveness

Intra-industry trade, specialisation and business cycles in ASEAN

Recently, a new resolve for both increased economic integration and monetary and exchange rate cooperation has started to emerge in ASEAN, especially since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. According to the optimum currency area theory, the degree of trade integration is one most important criterion for joining a currency union. The large increase in intra-ASEAN trade in recent years naturally raises the question of whether the ASEAN countries are becoming better prepared to form a currency union. This paper sets to test whether the recorded increase in intra-ASEAN trade is leading the ASEAN members to closer economic integration and thus to better satisfy the criteria for a common currency. Two separate models are estimated for that purpose. First, a variation of the model of Frankel and Rose (1997) was estimated for the ASEAN members. As the results were not very significant, a new methodology that uses the whole sample period data instead of dividing the data into sub-periods was conducted. The results with our own model were very significant and robust, and showed a clear positive correlation between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization in ASEAN. This result has important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common currency in the region

Asymmetry of shocks and convergence in selected Asean countries : a dynamic analysis

This paper aims to investigate whether structural shocks among ASEAN countries are becoming more symmetrical over time, thus indicating whether this region is becoming betterprepared to introduce a common monetary policy. For that purpose a dynamic space-state model that complements the conventional Structural VAR models used in the existing literature was estimated by using the Kalman filter so that the evolution of the degree of shock symmetry and, therefore, the evolution in the degree of convergence could be identified over time, distinguishing between a country’s convergence with a regional partner and a more general trend of convergence with the rest of the world. The results showed that in the majority of cases there has been an increase in the degree of convergence of demand shocks in recent years. More importantly, it also showed an increase in divergence in supply shocks for most cases since the beginning of the 90’s even when taking into account the Asian Financial Crisis. This is especially true for the periphery countries suggesting that the Philippines and Thailand are not only not converging but actually diverging from the core group. These results have important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common monetary policy in the region

Xtremeveggies - Halophyte cultivation using saline water and amended underused soils and sediments

Doutoramento em Engenharia Alimentar / Instituto Superior de Agronomia. Universidade de LisboaABSTRACT - The estuarine ecosystems are among the most productive, but also among the most threatened ecosystems. This PhD project arise as a response to two questions raised by society, which reflect two environmental problems in an estuarine context: the deposition of aquaculture sediments around the ponds, contributing to the degradation of a saltmarsh area in the Guadiana estuary; and an abandoned and degraded saltmarsh area, mainly due to the industrial activity, in the Tagus estuary. This thesis develops an answer to these two environmental issues based on Sustainable Development Goals: waste reutilisation to a circular economy, halt of biodiversity loss, develop agricultural practices to protect freshwater and contribute to the recovery of degraded areas. Sediments proprieties of aquaculture ponds in the Guadiana estuary and Fluvisol properties from the Tagus estuary were improved using organic and inorganic wastes from local activities: agriculture (substrate used in the strawberry crop, pruning wastes) and/or industries (distilleries, breweries), allowing reutilisation of these wastes that would be disposable. Contributing to the species and estuarine ecosystems conservation, the Technosols constructed with the sediments/Fluvisol permitted the cultivation of native plants, which contribute to the estuaries’ stabilisation, some of them endemics, threatened and/or have an economic potential: A. macrostachyum, L. algarvense, L. daveaui, e S. vera. Since these species are halophytes, high NaCl concentrations tolerant, they also were able to grow and develop under irrigation with water from the respective estuary (Guadiana or Tagus), being this methodology a freshwater protection cultivation technique. Altogether these measures may constitute the first step in the recovery of these degraded salt marsh areas in the Guadiana and Tagus estuariesRESUMO - Os ecossistemas estuarinos encontram-se entre os ecossistemas mais produtivos, mas também entre os mais ameaçados. Esta dissertação surge como resposta a duas questões apresentadas pela sociedade, que refletem dois problemas ambientais em contexto estuarino: a deposição de sedimentos de aquacultura na área adjacente aos tanques, contribuindo para a degradação de uma área de sapal no estuário do Guadiana; e uma área de sapal abandonada e degradada, sobretudo devido à antiga atividade industrial ali instalada, no estuário do Tejo. Esta tese desenvolve uma resposta a estas duas problemáticas ambientais, baseada nos objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável: reutilização de resíduos para uma economia circular, travar a perda de biodiversidade, desenvolver práticas agrícolas de proteção da água doce e contribuir para a recuperação de áreas degradadas. As propriedades dos sedimentos, provenientes dos tanques de aquacultura no estuário do Guadiana, e do Fluvissolo, proveniente do estuário do Tejo, foram melhoradas utilizando resíduos orgânicos e/ou inorgânicos, provenientes de atividades locais: agrícolas (substrato de cultura de morangueiro, podas de biomassa) e/ou industriais (destilarias, cervejarias), permitindo também a reutilização destes resíduos que de outra forma seriam descartados. Contribuindo para a conservação das espécies e dos ecossistemas estuarinos, os Tecnossolos construídos com os sedimentos/Fluvissolo e os resíduos orgânicos/inorgânicos, possibilitaram o cultivo de plantas nativas que contribuem para a estabilização dos estuários, e que são endémicas, ameaçadas e/ou têm um potencial económico: Arthocnemum macrostachyum (Moric.) Moris, Limonium algarvense Erben, Limonium daveaui Erben, e Suaeda vera Forssk. ex J. F. Gmel. Sendo estas espécies halófitas, tolerantes a elevada concentração de NaCl, as mesmas foram capazes de se desenvolver regadas com água proveniente do respetivo estuário (Guadiana ou Tejo), contribuindo assim para a proteção da água doce. No seu conjunto, estas medidas podem constituir um primeiro passo na recuperação destas áreas de sapal degradadas, no estuário do Guadiana e do TejoN/

A temporal multiscale approach for MR Fingerprinting

Quantitative MRI (qMRI) is becoming increasingly important for research and clinical applications, however, state-of-the-art reconstruction methods for qMRI are computationally prohibitive. We propose a temporal multiscale approach to reduce computation times in qMRI. Instead of computing exact gradients of the qMRI likelihood, we propose a novel approximation relying on the temporal smoothness of the data. These gradients are then used in a coarse-to-fine (C2F) approach, for example using coordinate descent. The C2F approach was also found to improve the accuracy of solutions, compared to similar methods where no multiscaling was used.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Title revise