The postulations á la D'Alembert and á la Cauchy for higher gradient continuum theories are equivalent. A review of existing results

In order to found continuum mechanics, two different postulations have been used. The first, introduced by Lagrange and Piola, starts by postulating how the work expended by internal interactions in a body depends on the virtual velocity field and its gradients. Then, by using the divergence theorem, a representation theorem is found for the volume and contact interactions which can be exerted at the boundary of the considered body. This method assumes an a priori notion of internal work, regards stress tensors as dual of virtual displacements and their gradients, deduces the concept of contact interactions and produces their representation in terms of stresses using integration by parts. The second method, conceived by Cauchy and based on the celebrated tetrahedron argument, starts by postulating the type of contact interactions which can be exerted on the boundary of every (suitably) regular part of a body. Then it proceeds by proving the existence of stress tensors from a balance-type postulate. In this paper, we review some relevant literature on the subject, discussing how the two postulations can be reconciled in the case of higher gradient theories. Finally, we underline the importance of the concept of contact surface, edge and wedge s-order forces

The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?

This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to forecast out-of-sample four major US dollar exchange rates using various economic criteria of model evaluation. The analysis shows that the model provides economic value to a risk-averse investor, delivering substantial utility gains when switching from a portfolio strategy based on the random walk benchmark to one that conditions on cyclical external imbalances.foreign exchange; predictability; global imbalances; fundamentals.

P. La Corte to Mr. Meredith (4 October 1962)

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/mercorr_pro/1636/thumbnail.jp

Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability

© 2016. We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium-the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility-reflects the costs of insuring against currency volatility fluctuations. The strategy sells high insurance-cost currencies and buys low insurance-cost currencies. A distinctive feature of the strategy's returns is that they are mainly generated by movements in spot exchange rates instead of interest rate differentials. We explore explanations for the profitability of the strategy, which cannot be understood using traditional risk factors

Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk

We empirically investigate the relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads. An increase in a country’s CDS spread is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its exchange rate as well as an increase of its currency volatility and crash risk. The link between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by exposure to global sovereign risk shocks and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. Sovereign risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates, volatility and skewness, and is strongly priced in the cross-section of currencies. Moreover, we find that sovereign risk accounts for a large share of carry trade returns, and that carry and momentum strategies generate high (low) returns across countries with high (low) sovereign risk

Photometry of the Oort Cloud comet C/2009 P1(Garradd): pre-perihelion observations at 5.7 and 2.5 AU

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the characterization of the general properties of the Long Period Comets (LPCs) family, and in particular to report on the dust environment of comet C/2009 P1 (Garradd). The comet was observed at two epochs pre-perihelion, at ~6 AU and at ~2.5 AU: broad-band images have been used to investigate its coma morphology and properties and to model the dust production rate. Comet C/2009 P1 (Garradd) is one of the most active and “dust producing” LPCs ever observed, even at the large heliocentric distance rh~6 AU. Its coma presents a complex morphology, with subtle structures underlying the classical fan-shaped tail, and, at rh~2.5 AU, also jet-like structures and spiralling outflows. In the reference aperture of radius ρ=5°×104 km, the R-Afρ is 3693±156 cm and 6368±412 cm, in August 2010 (rh~6 AU) and July 2011 (rh~2.5 AU), respectively. The application of a first order photometric model, under realistic assumptions on grain geometric albedo, power-law dust size distribution, phase darkening function and grain dust outflow velocity, yielded a measure of the dust production rate for the two epochs of observation of Qd=7.27×102 kg/s and Qd=1.37×103 kg/s, respectively, for a reference outflow dust velocity of vsmall=25 m/s for small (0.1–10 µm) grains and vlarge=1 m/s for large (10 µm–1 cm) grains. These results suggest that comet Garradd is one of the most active minor bodies observed in recent years, highly contributing to the continuous replenishment of the Interplanetary Dust Complex also in the outer Solar System, and pose important constraints on the mechanism(s) driving the cometary activity at large heliocentric distances

Exchange rates and sovereign risk

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks, and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor.Christian Wagner acknowledges support from the Center for Financial Frictions (FRIC), grant no. DNRF10

The Impact of Heterogeneity and Awareness in Modeling Epidemic Spreading on Multiplex Networks.

In the real world, dynamic processes involving human beings are not disjoint. To capture the real complexity of such dynamics, we propose a novel model of the coevolution of epidemic and awareness spreading processes on a multiplex network, also introducing a preventive isolation strategy. Our aim is to evaluate and quantify the joint impact of heterogeneity and awareness, under different socioeconomic conditions. Considering, as case study, an emerging public health threat, Zika virus, we introduce a data-driven analysis by exploiting multiple sources and different types of data, ranging from Big Five personality traits to Google Trends, related to different world countries where there is an ongoing epidemic outbreak. Our findings demonstrate how the proposed model allows delaying the epidemic outbreak and increasing the resilience of nodes, especially under critical economic conditions. Simulation results, using data-driven approach on Zika virus, which has a growing scientific research interest, are coherent with the proposed analytic model.This work was partially supported by the following Research Grant: Italian Ministry of University and Research - MIUR “Programma Operativo Nazionale Ricerca e Competitività 2007–2013” within the project “PON-03PE-00132-1” - Servify

The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value

This paper re-examines the validity of the Expectation Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to three months. We extend the work of Longstaff (2000a) in two directions: (i) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (ii) more importantly, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant