Elastic Labour Supply and Optimal Taxation in a Model of Sustainable Endogenous Growth

This paper presents an endogenous growth model which features elastic labour supply in order to address the distortions created by labour income and consumption taxation. Introducing elastic labour into an AK model greatly changes the structure of the model and raises problems regarding the existence and the stability of a balanced growth path. Another important feature of this paper is the presence of environmental quality both in the utility and in the production functions and the requirement that the growth path of the economy be environmentally sustainable. Within the framework outlined, the focus of the analysis is on optimal taxation and on the effects of government policy on the growth path of the economy. The basic result is that even in this simple setting the interaction between the economic and the ecological system are complex and the policy outcomes crucially depend on the parameters of the model.Endogenous growth, Sustainable growth, Environmental externalities, Elastic labour supply

Efficiency, Productivity and Environmental Policy: A Case Study of Power Generation in the EU

This study uses the EU public power generating sector as a case study to investigate the environmental efficiency and productivity enhancing performance of the European Union’s CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in its pilot phase. Using Data Envelopment Analysis methods, we measure the environmental efficiency and the productivity growth registered in public power generation across the EU over the 1996-2007 period. In the second stage of our analysis we attempt to explain changes in productivity and efficiency over time using state-of-the-art econometric techniques. Our analysis suggests two conclusions: on the one hand carbon pricing led to an increase in environmental efficiency and to a shift outwards of the technological frontier; on the other hand, the overly generous allocation of emission permits had a negative impact on both measures. These results are shown to be robust to changes in controls and specifications.Emissions Trading, EU ETS, Environmental Efficiency, Productivity Growth, Data Envelopment Analysis

The Direction of Technical Change in Capital-Resource Economies

We analyze a multi-sector growth model with directed technical change where man-made capital and exhaustible resources are essen- tial for production. The relative profitability of factor-specific inno- vations endogenously determines whether technical progress will be capital- or resource-augmenting. We show that convergence to bal- anced growth implies zero capital-augmenting innovations: in the long run, the economy exhibits purely resource-augmenting technical change. This result provides sound microfoundations for the broad class of models of exogenous/endogenous growth where resource-aug- menting progress is required to sustain consumption in the long run, contradicting the view that these models are conceptually biased in favor of sustainability.Endogenous Growth, Directed Technical Change, Exhaustible Resources, Sustainability

Efficiency, Productivity and Environmental Policy: A Case Study of Power Generation in the EU

This study uses the EU public power generating sector as a case study to investigate the environmental efficiency and productivity enhancing performance of the EU ETS in its pilot phase. Using Data Envelopment Analysis methods, we measures the environmental efficiency and the productivity growth registered in public power generation across the EU over the 1996-2007 period. In the second stage of our analysis we attempt to explain changes in productivity and efficiency over time using state-of-the-art econometric techniques. Our analysis suggests two conclusions: on the one hand carbon pricing led to an increase in environmental efficiency and to a shift outwards of the technological frontier; on the other hand, the overly generous allocation of emission permits had a negative impact on both measures. These results are shown to be quite robust to changes in controls and specifications.Emissions Trading; EU ETS; Environmental Efficiency; Productivity GrowthM; Data Envelopment Analysis

The Direction of Technical Change in Capital-Resource Economies

We analyze a multi-sector growth model with directed technical change where man-made capital and exhaustible resources are essential for production. The relative profitability of factor-specific innovations endogenously determines whether technical progress will be capital- or resource-augmenting. We show that convergence to balanced growth implies zero capital-augmenting innovations: in the long run, the economy exhibits purely resource-augmenting technical change. This result provides sound microfoundations for the broad class of models of exogenous/endogenous growth where resource-augmenting progress is required to sustain consumption in the long run, contradicting the view that these models are conceptually biased in favor of sustainability.Endogenous Growth; Directed Technical Change; Exhaustible Resources; Sustainability

Carbon Leakage Revisited: Unilateral Climate Policy with Directed Technical Change

A common critique to the Kyoto Protocol is that the reduction in emissions of CO2 by countries who comply with it will be (partly) offset by the increase in emissions on the part of other countries (carbon leakage). This paper analyzes the effect of technical change on carbon leakage in a two-country model where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions. Climate policy induces changes in relative prices, which cause carbon leakage through a terms-of-trade effect. However, these changes in relative prices in addition affect the incentives to innovate in different sectors. We allow entrepreneurs to choose the sector for which they innovate (directed technical change). This leads to a counterbalancing induced-technology effect, which always reduces carbon leakage. We therefore conclude that the leakage rates reported in the literature so far may be too high, as these estimates neglect the effect of relative price changes on the incentives to innovate.Climate Policy, Carbon Leakage, Directed Technical Change, International Trade

Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS

We use historical industrial emissions data to assess the level of abatement and overallocation that took place across European countries during the pilot phase (2005-2007)of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. Using a dynamic panel data model, we estimate the counterfactual (business-as-usual) emissions scenario for EU member states. Comparing this baseline to allocated and verified emissions, we conclude that both overallocation and abatement occurred, along with under-allocation and emissions inflation. Over the three trading years of the pilot phase we find over-allocation of approximately 376 million EUAs (6%) and total abatement at the member state level of 107 Mt CO2 (1.8%). However, due to over-allocation and possible uncertainty about future allocation methodologies, we calculate that emissions inflation of approximately 119 Mt CO2 (2%) occurred, resulting in emissions over the pilot phase being approximately 12 Mt CO2 (0.2%) higher than they would have been in the absence of the EU ETS.Emissions Trading Scheme, Climate Policy, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Unintended Detrimental Effects of Environmental Policy: The Green Paradox and Beyond

Well-intended policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions may have unintended undesirable consequences. Recently, a large literature has emerged showing under what conditions this so-called ‘Green Paradox’ may occur. We review this literature and identify the key mechanisms behind these paradoxical policy outcomes and highlight avenues for future research.climate policy, green paradox, non-renewable resources, scarcity, carbon tax, announcement effects, implementation lag, carbon leakage, backstop technology

A paler shade of green: Environmental policy under induced technical change

Conventional wisdom argues that environmental policy is less costly if it induces the development of cleaner technologies. In contrast to this argument, we show that once the second-best nature of actual economies is taken into account, the cost of environmental policy may well be larger with induced technical change (ITC) than without. Thus, ITC may lower both the emissions reductions and the welfare gains associated with environmental policy. In an endogenous policy framework, ITC may reduce the desired stringency of the policy

Did the EU ETS make a difference? An empirical assessment using Lithuanian firm-level data

We use a panel dataset of about 5,000 Lithuanian firms between 2003 and 2010, to assess the impact of the EU ETS on the environmental and economic performance of participating firms. Using a matching methodology, we are able to estimate the causal impact of EU ETS participation on CO2 emissions, CO2 intensity, investment behaviour and profitability of participating firms. Our results show that ETS participation did not lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions, while we identify a slight improvement in CO2 intensity. ETS participants are shown to have retired part of their less efficient capital stock, and to have made modest additional investments from 2010. We also show that the EU ETS did not represent a drag on the profitability of participating firms