Statistical Approach for Computing Base Flow Rates in Gaged Rivers and Hydropower Effect Analysis

The calculation of base flow rates in rivers is complex since hydrogeological and hydrological studies should be performed. The estimation of base flow rates in storm hydrograph associated to various return periods is even more challenging compared to other events. This research provides a novel methodology to compute base flow rates in gaged rivers for extreme events based on statistical correlations of daily flows. The current methodology does not require complex aquifers analysis to compute base flows. Results of computed base flow rates are validated using observed storm hydrographs using a complete record. The proposed methodology was applied considering measurements of a limnigraphic station in the Sinú river located in Montería, Córdoba, Colombia. The analysis confirmed that only using series of multiannual monthly mean flows is possible to estimate base flow of flood hydrograph associated to different return periods

Assessment of steady and unsteady friction models in the draining processes of hydraulic installations

The study of draining processes without admitting air has been conducted using only steady friction formulations in the implementation of governing equations. However, this hydraulic event involves transitions from laminar to turbulent flow, and vice versa, because of the changes in water velocity. In this sense, this research improves the current mathematical model considering unsteady friction models. An experimental facility composed by a 4.36 m long methacrylate pipe was configured, and measurements of air pocket pressure oscillations were recorded. The mathematical model was performed using steady and unsteady friction models. Comparisons between measured and computed air pocket pressure patterns indicated that unsteady friction models slightly improve the results compared to steady friction models

Selección de distribuciones de probabilidad hidrológica para eventos de lluvia extrema en las regiones de Colombia

Frequency analysis of extreme events is used to estimate the maximum rainfall associated with different return periods and is used in planning hydraulic structures. When carrying out this type of analysis in engineering projects, the hydrological distributions that best fit the trend of maximum 24 h rainfall data are unknown. This study collected maximum 24 h rainfall records from 362 stations distributed throughout Colombia, with the goal of guiding hydraulic planners by suggesting the probability distributions they should use before beginning their analysis. The generalized extreme value (GEV) probability distribution, using the weighted moments method, presented the best fits of frequency analysis of maximum daily precipitation for various return periods for selected rainfall stations in Colombia.El análisis de frecuencia de eventos extremos se utiliza para estimar la precipitación máxima asociada con diferentes períodos de retorno y se utiliza en la planificación de estructuras hidráulicas. Al realizar este tipo de análisis en proyectos de ingeniería, las distribuciones hidrológicas que mejor se ajustan a la tendencia de máxima Se desconocen los datos de precipitación de 24 h. Este estudio recopiló registros de precipitación máxima de 24 h de 362 estaciones distribuidos por toda Colombia, con el objetivo de orientar a los planificadores hidráulicos sugiriendo distribuciones de probabilidad que deben usar antes de comenzar su análisis. El extremo generalizado La distribución de probabilidad del valor (GEV), utilizando el método de momentos ponderados, presentó los mejores ajustes de análisis de frecuencia de la precipitación máxima diaria para varios períodos de retorno para lluvias seleccionadas estaciones en Colombia

Probabilistic approach to determine the spatial distribution of the antecedent moisture conditions for different return periods in the Atlántico region, Colombia

Previous soil moisture conditions play an important role in the design of hydraulic structures because they are directly related to the runoff threshold associated with a return period. These represent one of the main determinants of the runoff response of a drainage basin. One of the main difficulties facing hydrologists in Colombia lies in the time spent gathering and analyzing information related to the selection of antecedent moisture conditions. In this study, complete records from 19 rainfall stations located in the Atlántico region, Colombia, were used to analyze the cumulative precipitation during the 5 days prior to the annual maximum daily precipitation associated with different return periods using the Gev, Gumbel, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson Type III probability distributions. Different interpolation methods (IDW, kriging and spline) were applied to evaluate the spatial distribution of the antecedent moisture conditions. The main contribution of this research is establishing, using a probabilistic approach, the behavior of antecedent moisture conditions in a particular region, which can be used by engineers and designers to plan water infrastructure. This probabilistic approach was applied to a case study of the Atlántico region, Colombia, where the spatial distribution of antecedent moisture conditions was calculated for several return periods. The results indicate that the better results were obtained with the IDW interpolation method, and the Pearson Type III and Gumbel distributions also showed the best fits based on the Akaike criterion

Hydrological considerations for sizing of a barge discharge pipeline runway

A key element for water supply systems is the design of the water intake components. Mobile floating platforms (barges) are helpful when the hydraulic system displays substantial variations in water levels. This study presents the hydrological considerations that should be considered for the design of the barge’s pipeline runway. The analysis takes into consideration the maximum and minimum water levels measured at the location. The study was carried out at the Magdalena River -Plato (Colombia) station, finding variations in water levels of between 12.3 m and 16.1 m for return periods of 25 and 100 years, respectively. This information is helpful for designers and consultants in order to design an appropriate barge pipeline runway

A preliminary analysis for selecting the best hydrological probability density functions of annual peak flows associated to various return periods in some rivers of Colombia

Analysis of extreme events of annual flow peaks are used for sizing hydraulic structures for specified return period. Cumulative distribution functions are applied to annual flow peak records in order to obtain extreme values with different return periods. In Colombia, when performing a frequency analysis, hydrological planners often do not know a priori the best cumulative distribution function for making analysis. In the present research, annual flow peak records from 49 hydrometric stations located in important rivers were collected, with the objective of determining the most representative cumulative distribution function. The best results were achieved using the generalized extreme value (GEV) cumulative distribution function with the maximum likelihood method

The Global Retinoblastoma Outcome Study: a prospective, cluster-based analysis of 4064 patients from 149 countries

Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular cancer worldwide. There is some evidence to suggest that major differences exist in treatment outcomes for children with retinoblastoma from different regions, but these differences have not been assessed on a global scale. We aimed to report 3-year outcomes for children with retinoblastoma globally and to investigate factors associated with survival

The Global Retinoblastoma Outcome Study: a prospective, cluster-based analysis of 4064 patients from 149 countries

Background Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular cancer worldwide. There is some evidence to suggest that major differences exist in treatment outcomes for children with retinoblastoma from different regions, but these differences have not been assessed on a global scale. We aimed to report 3-year outcomes for children with retinoblastoma globally and to investigate factors associated with survival. Methods We did a prospective cluster-based analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed between Jan 1,2017, and Dec 31,2017, then treated and followed up for 3 years. Patients were recruited from 260 specialised treatment centres worldwide. Data were obtained from participating centres on primary and additional treatments, duration of follow-up, metastasis, eye globe salvage, and survival outcome. We analysed time to death and time to enucleation with Cox regression models. Findings The cohort included 4064 children from 149 countries. The median age at diagnosis was 23.2 months (IQR 11.0-36.5). Extraocular tumour spread (cT4 of the cTNMH classification) at diagnosis was reported in five (0.8%) of 636 children from high-income countries, 55 (5.4%) of 1027 children from upper-middle-income countries, 342 (19. 7%) of 1738 children from lower-middle-income countries, and 196 (42.9%) of 457 children from low-income countries. Enudeation surgery was available for all children and intravenous chemotherapy was available for 4014 (98.8%) of 4064 children. The 3-year survival rate was 99.5% (95% CI 98.8-100.0) for children from high-income countries, 91.2% (89.5-93.0) for children from upper-middle-income countries, 80.3% (78.3-82.3) for children from lower-middle-income countries, and 57.3% (524-63-0) for children from low-income countries. On analysis, independent factors for worse survival were residence in low-income countries compared to high-income countries (hazard ratio 16.67; 95% CI 4.76-50.00), cT4 advanced tumour compared to cT1 (8.98; 4.44-18.18), and older age at diagnosis in children up to 3 years (1.38 per year; 1.23-1.56). For children aged 3-7 years, the mortality risk decreased slightly (p=0.0104 for the change in slope). Interpretation This study, estimated to include approximately half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017, shows profound inequity in survival of children depending on the national income level of their country of residence. In high-income countries, death from retinoblastoma is rare, whereas in low-income countries estimated 3-year survival is just over 50%. Although essential treatments are available in nearly all countries, early diagnosis and treatment in low-income countries are key to improving survival outcomes. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Y