Pascal's Wager, infective endocarditis and the "no-lose" philosophy in medicine

Doctors and dentists have traditionally used antibiotic prophylaxis in certain patient groups in order to prevent infective endocarditis (IE). New guidelines, however, suggest that the risk to patients from using antibiotics is higher than the risk from IE. This paper analyses the relative risks of prescribing and not prescribing antibiotic prophylaxis against the background of Pascal's Wager, the infamous assertion that it is better to believe in God regardless of evidence, because of the prospective benefits should He exist. Many doctors seem to believe the parallel proposition that it is better to prescribe antibiotics, regardless of evidence, because of the prospective benefit conferred upon the patient. This has been called the "no lose philosophy" in medicine: better safe than sorry, even if the evidence inconveniently suggests that following this mantra is potentially more likely to result in sorry than safe. It transpires that, just as Pascal's Wager fails to convince because of a lack of evidence to support it and the costs incurred by trying to believe, so the "belts and braces" approach of prescribing antibiotic prophylaxis is unjustifiable given the actual evidence of potential risk and benefit to the patient. Ultimately, there is no no-lose if your clinical decisions, like Pascal's Wager, are based on faith rather than evidence

A population-based case-control study on social factors and risk of testicular germ cell tumours

Objectives Incidence rates for testicular cancer have risen over the last few decades. Findings of an association between the risk of testicular cancer and social factors are controversial. The association of testicular cancer and different indicators of social factors were examined in this study.<p></p> Design Case–control study.<p></p> Setting Population-based multicentre study in four German regions (city states Bremen and Hamburg, the Saarland region and the city of Essen).<p></p> Participants The study included 797 control participants and 266 participants newly diagnosed with testicular cancer of which 167 cases were classified as seminoma and 99 as non-seminoma. The age of study participants ranged from 15 to 69 years.<p></p> Methods Social position was classified by educational attainment level, posteducational training, occupational sectors according to Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarrero (EGP) and the socioeconomic status (SES) on the basis of the International SocioEconomic Index of occupational status (ISEI). ORs and corresponding 95% CIs (95% CIs) were calculated for the whole study sample and for seminoma and non-seminoma separately.<p></p> Results Testicular cancer risk was modestly increased among participants with an apprenticeship (OR=1.7 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.8)) or a university degree (OR=1.6 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.8)) relative to those whose education was limited to school. Analysis of occupational sectors revealed an excess risk for farmers and farm-related occupations. No clear trend was observed for the analyses according to the ISEI-scale.<p></p> Conclusions Social factors based on occupational measures were not a risk factor for testicular cancer in this study. The elevated risk in farmers and farm-related occupations warrants further research including analysis of occupational exposures.<p></p&gt

Is the Scottish population living dangerously? Prevalence of multiple risk factors: the Scottish Health Survey 2003

<b>Background:</b> Risk factors are often considered individually, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of combinations of multiple behavioural risk factors and their association with socioeconomic determinants.<p></p> <b>Methods:</b> Multinomial logistic regression was used to model the associations between socioeconomic factors and multiple risk factors from data in the Scottish Health Survey 2003. Prevalence of five main behavioural risk factors - smoking alcohol, diet, overweight/obesity, and physical inactivity, and the odds in relation to demographic, individual and area socioeconomic factors.<p></p> <b>Results:</b> Full data were available on 6,574 subjects (80.7% of the survey sample). Nearly the whole adult population (97.5%) reported to have at least one behavioural risk factor; while 55% have three or more risk factors; and nearly 20% have four or all five risk factors. The most important determinants for having four or five multiple risk factors were low educational attainment which conferred around a 3-fold increased odds compared to high education; and residence in the most deprived communities (relative to least deprived) which had greater than 3-fold increased odds.<p></p> <b>Conclusions:</b> The prevalence of multiple behavioural risk factors was high and the prevalence of absence of all risk factors very low. These behavioural patterns were socioeconomically determined. Policy to address factors needs to be joined up and better consider underlying socioeconomic circumstances.<p></p&gt

Linking routinely collected social work, education and health data to enable monitoring of the health and health care of school-aged children in state care (‘looked after children’) in Scotland: a national demonstration project

Background and objectives: Children in state care (‘looked after children’) have poorer health than children who are not looked after. Recent developments in Scotland and elsewhere have aimed to improve services and outcomes for looked after children. Routine monitoring of the health outcomes of looked after children compared to those of their non-looked after peers is currently lacking. Developing capacity for comparative monitoring of population based outcomes based on linkage of routinely collected administrative data has been identified as a priority. To our knowledge there are no existing population based data linkage studies providing data on the health of looked after and non-looked after children at national level. Smaller scale studies that are available generally provide very limited information on linkage methods and hence do not allow scrutiny of bias that may be introduced through the linkage process. Study design and methods: National demonstration project testing the feasibility of linking routinely collected looked after children, education, and health data. Participants: All children in publicly funded school in Scotland in 2011/12. Results: Linkage between looked after children data and the national pupil census classified 10,009 (1.5%) and 1,757 (0.3%) of 670,952 children as, respectively, currently and previously looked after. Recording of the unique pupil identifier (Scottish Candidate Number, SCN) on looked after children returns is incomplete, with 66% of looked after records for 2011/12 for children of possible school age containing a valid SCN. This will have resulted in some under-ascertainment of currently and, particularly, previously looked after children within the general pupil population. Further linkage of the pupil census to the NHS Scotland master patient index demonstrated that a safe link to the child’s unique health service (Community Health Index, CHI) number could be obtained for a very high proportion of children in each group (94%, 95%, and 95% of children classified as currently, previously, and non-looked after respectively). In general linkage rates were higher for older children and those living in more affluent areas. Within the looked after group, linkage rates were highest for children with the fewest placements and for those in permanent fostering. Conclusions: This novel data linkage demonstrates the feasibility of monitoring population based health outcomes of school aged looked after and non-looked after children using linked routine administrative data. Improved recording of the unique pupil identifier number on looked after data returns would be beneficial. Extending the range of personal identifiers on looked after children returns would enable linkage to health data for looked after children who are not in publicly funded schooling (i.e. those who are pre- or post-school, home schooled, or in independent schooling)

Is detecting oral cancer in general dental practices a realistic expectation? A population-based study using population linked data in Scotland

Introduction: Despite the increasing burden of oral cancer (OC) – including oral cavity (OCC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) – it remains a relatively low-volume disease in Scotland, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that dentists only see between one and two cases in their practising careers. Aims: To examine, for the first time on a population-basis via data linkage, whether early detection by general dental practices (GDP) is a realistic expectation by i) estimating the number of OC cases/year a dentist in Scotland may encounter over time, accounting for the deprivation level of practice location and dental registration/attendance rates, and ii) assessing whether patients attended GDPs two years pre-diagnosis. Materials and methods: Scottish Cancer Registry data on all OC cases (2010-2012), published NHS Scotland dental workforce and registration/participation statistics, and individual patient data linked with NHS dental service activity were analysed. Results: Dentists were estimated to potentially encounter one case of OC every 10 years, OCC every 16.7 years, and OPC every 25 years. However, 53.7% of OC patients had made no dental contact two years pre-diagnosis. Conclusion: Strategies for early detection must consider the rarity of OC incidence and poor dental attendance patterns. These results highlight the importance of improving access and uptake of dental services among those at highest risk to increase the opportunities for early detection

The structure of blocks with a Klein four defect group

We prove Erdmann’s conjecture [16] stating that every block with a Klein four defect group has a simple module with trivial source, and deduce from this that Puig’s finiteness conjecture holds for source algebras of blocks with a Klein four defect group. The proof uses the classification of finite simple groups

Spectral extension of the quantum group cotangent bundle

The structure of a cotangent bundle is investigated for quantum linear groups GLq(n) and SLq(n). Using a q-version of the Cayley-Hamilton theorem we construct an extension of the algebra of differential operators on SLq(n) (otherwise called the Heisenberg double) by spectral values of the matrix of right invariant vector fields. We consider two applications for the spectral extension. First, we describe the extended Heisenberg double in terms of a new set of generators -- the Weyl partners of the spectral variables. Calculating defining relations in terms of these generators allows us to derive SLq(n) type dynamical R-matrices in a surprisingly simple way. Second, we calculate an evolution operator for the model of q-deformed isotropic top introduced by A.Alekseev and L.Faddeev. The evolution operator is not uniquely defined and we present two possible expressions for it. The first one is a Riemann theta function in the spectral variables. The second one is an almost free motion evolution operator in terms of logarithms of the spectral variables. Relation between the two operators is given by a modular functional equation for Riemann theta function.Comment: 38 pages, no figure

Interventions for the treatment of oral and oropharyngeal cancers: surgical treatment

Background: Surgery is an important part of the management of oral cavity cancer with regard to both the removal of the primary tumour and removal of lymph nodes in the neck. Surgery is less frequently used in oropharyngeal cancer. Surgery alone may be treatment for early‐stage disease or surgery may be used in combination with radiotherapy, chemotherapy and immunotherapy/biotherapy. There is variation in the recommended timing and extent of surgery in the overall treatment regimens of people with these cancers. This is an update of a review originally published in 2007 and first updated in 2011. Objectives: To determine which surgical treatment modalities for oral and oropharyngeal cancers result in increased overall survival, disease‐free survival and locoregional control and reduced recurrence. To determine the implication of treatment modalities in terms of morbidity, quality of life, costs, hospital days of treatment, complications and harms. Search methods: Cochrane Oral Health's Information Specialist searched the following databases: Cochrane Oral Health's Trials Register (to 20 December 2017), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2017, Issue 11), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to 20 December 2017) and Embase Ovid (1980 to 20 December 2017). We searched the US National Institutes of Health Trials Registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for ongoing trials. There were no restrictions on the language or date of publication. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials where more than 50% of participants had primary tumours of the oral cavity or oropharynx, or where separate data could be extracted for these participants, and that compared two or more surgical treatment modalities, or surgery versus other treatment modalities. Data collection and analysis: Two or more review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We contacted study authors for additional information as required. We collected adverse events data from included studies. Main results: We identified five new trials in this update, bringing the total number of included trials to 12 (2300 participants; 2148 with cancers of the oral cavity). We assessed four trials at high risk of bias, and eight at unclear. None of the included trials compared different surgical approaches for the excision of the primary tumour. We grouped the trials into seven main comparisons. Future research may change the findings as there is only very low‐certainty evidence available for all results. Five trials compared elective neck dissection (ND) with therapeutic (delayed) ND in participants with oral cavity cancer and clinically negative neck nodes, but differences in type of surgery and duration of follow‐up made meta‐analysis inappropriate in most cases. Four of these trials reported overall and disease‐free survival. The meta‐analyses of two trials found no evidence of either intervention leading to greater overall survival (hazard ratio (HR) 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41 to 1.72; 571 participants), or disease‐free survival (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.25 to 2.11; 571 participants), but one trial found a benefit for elective supraomohyoid ND compared to therapeutic ND in overall survival (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.84; 67 participants) and disease‐free survival (HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.84; 67 participants). Four individual trials assessed locoregional recurrence, but could not be meta‐analysed; one trial favoured elective ND over therapeutic delayed ND, while the others were inconclusive. Two trials compared elective radical ND with elective selective ND, but we were unable to pool the data for two outcomes. Neither study found evidence of a difference in overall survival or disease‐free survival. A single trial found no evidence of a difference in recurrence. One trial compared surgery plus radiotherapy with radiotherapy alone, but data were unreliable because the trial stopped early and there were multiple protocol violations. One trial comparing positron‐emission tomography‐computed tomography (PET‐CT) following chemoradiotherapy (with ND only if no or incomplete response) versus planned ND (either before or after chemoradiotherapy), showed no evidence of a difference in mortality (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.31; 564 participants). The trial did not provide usable data for the other outcomes. Three single trials compared: surgery plus adjunctive radiotherapy versus chemoradiotherapy; supraomohyoid ND versus modified radical ND; and super selective ND versus selective ND. There were no useable data from these trials. The reporting of adverse events was poor. Four trials measured adverse events. Only one of the trials reported quality of life as an outcome. Authors' conclusions: Twelve randomised controlled trials evaluated ND surgery in people with oral cavity cancers; however, the evidence available for all comparisons and outcomes is very low certainty, therefore we cannot rely on the findings. The evidence is insufficient to draw conclusions about elective ND of clinically negative neck nodes at the time of removal of the primary tumour compared to therapeutic (delayed) ND. Two trials combined in meta‐analysis suggested there is no difference between these interventions, while one trial (which evaluated elective supraomohyoid ND) found that it may be associated with increased overall and disease‐free survival. One trial found elective ND reduced locoregional recurrence, while three were inconclusive. There is no evidence that radical ND increases overall or disease‐free survival compared to more conservative ND surgery, or that there is a difference in mortality between PET‐CT surveillance following chemoradiotherapy versus planned ND (before or after chemoradiotherapy). Reporting of adverse events in all trials was poor and it was not possible to compare the quality of life of people undergoing different surgical treatments

The current state of peek implant osseointergration and future perspectives: a systematic review

Polyetheretherketone (PEEK) has been considered as an alternative to replace surgical metal implants. Several medical applications, including dental and orthopaedic implants, need confirmed osseointegration before functional loading. The present study aims at providing a comprehensive systematic review of the evidence on PEEK implants' osseointegration. A systematic search was conducted using Cochrane library, MEDLINE (PubMed), Ovid MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE databases. Publications were identified in accordance with specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. Eligibility screening, data extraction and quality assessment were performed. The review protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018116061). A total of 55 articles were reviewed and 29 of the most relevant that met the inclusion criteria were selected. Heterogeneity was identified among the included studies. Several approaches have been applied to enhance PEEK osseointegration, with most in vivo studies conducted on small-scale animal models but no study evaluating the osseointegration of PEEK under cyclic loading. However, PEEK modifications are demonstrated to enhance osseointegration preclinically. Collectively, the present review shows a shortage of evidence, including a lack of comprehensive assessment of osseointegration, the need for large-animal-model tests, the need to assess the effect of loading on the implants and the lack of randomised controlled clinical trials

A prospective cohort study of human papillomavirus-driven oropharyngeal cancers: implications for prognosis and immunisation

Aims: Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is increasing on a global scale, including the component driven by high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV); contemporary data that provides insight into the prognosis of this disease in addition to the fraction attributable to HR-HPV are essential to inform primary and secondary disease management strategies. Materials and methods: A population-based cohort of 235 patients diagnosed with OPC between 2013 and 2015 in Scotland was assessed for HPV status using molecular genotyping. Associations between HR-HPV status and key clinical and demographic variables were estimated using the Pearson chi-squared test. Rates of overall survival and progression-free survival were estimated and visualised using Kaplan–Meier curves. Results: HPV DNA (largely HPV 16) was identified in 60% of cases. After adjustment for age, gender, deprivation, smoking, alcohol consumption and tumour stage, patients with HR-HPV-positive OPC had an 89% reduction in the risk of death (hazard ratio = 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.05–0.25) and an 85% reduction in the risk of disease progression (hazard ratio = 0.15, 95% confidence interval 0.07–0.30). HPV positivity was not associated with age, deprivation or smoking status, whereas those who reported excess alcohol consumption were less likely to be positive for HR-HPV. Conclusions: The prevalence of HR-HPV-associated OPC is high in Scotland and strongly associated with dramatically improved clinical outcomes, including survival. Demographic/behavioural variables did not reliably predict HPV positivity in this cohort, which underlines the importance of laboratory confirmation. Finally, the dominance of HPV 16 in OPC indicates the significant impact of prophylactic immunisation on this disease