A Test of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using data from a Natural Experiment

Data on contestants' choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. The most important issue addressed in the paper is what belief function is actually being used by contestants. The parameters of this function are estimated freely along with the parameters of a choice model. Separate identification of the belief function and preferences is possible by virtue of the fact that at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the "true" offer function which is estimated using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find that there is a significant difference between these two functions, and hence we reject the rational expectations hypothesis. However, when a simpler "rule-of-thumb" structure is as- sumed for the belief function, we find a correspondence to the function obtained from data on actual offers. Our overall conclusion is that contestants are rational to the extent that they make use of all available relevant information, but are not fully rational because they are not processing the information in an optimal way. The importance of belief-formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward-looking as opposed to myopic.Beliefs, Discrete choice models, Method of simulated likelihood, Natural Experiments, rational expectations, risky choice

Walking Through the Method Zoo: Does Higher Education Really Meet Software Industry Demands?

Software engineering educators are continually challenged by rapidly evolving concepts, technologies, and industry demands. Due to the omnipresence of software in a digitalized society, higher education institutions (HEIs) have to educate the students such that they learn how to learn, and that they are equipped with a profound basic knowledge and with latest knowledge about modern software and system development. Since industry demands change constantly, HEIs are challenged in meeting such current and future demands in a timely manner. This paper analyzes the current state of practice in software engineering education. Specifically, we want to compare contemporary education with industrial practice to understand if frameworks, methods and practices for software and system development taught at HEIs reflect industrial practice. For this, we conducted an online survey and collected information about 67 software engineering courses. Our findings show that development approaches taught at HEIs quite closely reflect industrial practice. We also found that the choice of what process to teach is sometimes driven by the wish to make a course successful. Especially when this happens for project courses, it could be beneficial to put more emphasis on building learning sequences with other courses

Epidemiology and Impact of Abdominal Oblique Injuries in Major and Minor League Baseball.

BACKGROUND: Oblique injuries are known to be a common cause of time out of play for professional baseball players, and prior work has suggested that injury rates may be on the rise in Major League Baseball (MLB). PURPOSE: To better understand the current incidence of oblique injuries, determine their impact based on time out of play, and to identify common injury patterns that may guide future injury prevention programs. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiological study. METHODS: Using the MLB Health and Injury Tracking System, all oblique injuries that resulted in time out of play in MLB and Minor League Baseball (MiLB) during the 2011 to 2015 seasons were identified. Player demographics such as age, position/role, and handedness were included. Injury-specific factors analyzed included the following: date of injury, timing during season, days missed, mechanism, side, treatment, and reinjury status. RESULTS: A total of 996 oblique injuries occurred in 259 (26%) MLB and 737 (74%) MiLB players. Although the injury rate was steady in MiLB, the MLB injury rate declined (P = .037). A total of 22,064 days were missed at a mean rate of 4413 days per season and 22.2 days per injury. The majority of these occurred during batting (n = 455, 46%) or pitching (n = 348, 35%), with pitchers losing 5 days more per injury than batters (P \u3c .001). The leading side was injured in 77% of cases and took 5 days longer to recover from than trailing side injuries (P = .009). Seventy-nine (7.9%) players received either a corticosteroid or platelet-rich plasma injection, and the mean recovery time was 11 days longer compared with those who did not receive an injection (P \u3c .001). CONCLUSION: Although the rate of abdominal oblique injuries is on the decline in MLB, this is not the case for MiLB, and these injuries continue to represent a significant source of time out of play in professional baseball. The vast majority of injuries occur on the lead side, and these injuries result in the greatest amount time out of play. The benefit of injections for the treatment of oblique injuries remains unknown

Assessing the Impact of Real-Time Machine Translation on Multilingual Meetings in Global Software Projects

Communication in global software development is hindered by language differences in countries with a lack of English speaking professionals. Machine translation is a technology that uses software to translate from one natural language to another. The progress of machine translation systems has been steady in the last decade. As for now, machine translation technology is particularly appealing because it might be used, in the form of cross-language chat services, in countries that are entering into global software projects. However, despite the recent progress of the technology, we still lack a thorough understanding of how real-time machine translation affects communication. In this paper, we present a set of empirical studies with the goal of assessing to what extent real-time machine translation can be used in distributed, multilingual requirements meetings instead of English. Results suggest that, despite far from 100% accurate, real-time machine translation is not disruptive of the conversation flow and, therefore, is accepted with favor by participants. However, stronger effects can be expected to emerge when language barriers are more critical. Our findings add to the evidence about the recent advances of machine translation technology and provide some guidance to global software engineering practitioners in regarding the losses and gains of using English as a lingua franca in multilingual group communication, as in the case of computer-mediated requirements meetings

Completeness of the cubic and quartic H\'enon-Heiles Hamiltonians

The quartic H\'enon-Heiles Hamiltonian $H = (P_1^2+P_2^2)/2+(\Omega_1 Q_1^2+\Omega_2 Q_2^2)/2 +C Q_1^4+ B Q_1^2 Q_2^2 + A Q_2^4 +(1/2)(\alpha/Q_1^2+\beta/Q_2^2) - \gamma Q_1$ passes the Painlev\'e test for only four sets of values of the constants. Only one of these, identical to the traveling wave reduction of the Manakov system, has been explicitly integrated (Wojciechowski, 1985), while the three others are not yet integrated in the generic case $(\alpha,\beta,\gamma)\not=(0,0,0)$. We integrate them by building a birational transformation to two fourth order first degree equations in the classification (Cosgrove, 2000) of such polynomial equations which possess the Painlev\'e property. This transformation involves the stationary reduction of various partial differential equations (PDEs). The result is the same as for the three cubic H\'enon-Heiles Hamiltonians, namely, in all four quartic cases, a general solution which is meromorphic and hyperelliptic with genus two. As a consequence, no additional autonomous term can be added to either the cubic or the quartic Hamiltonians without destroying the Painlev\'e integrability (completeness property).Comment: 10 pages, To appear, Theor.Math.Phys. Gallipoli, 34 June--3 July 200

A reduction of the resonant three-wave interaction to the generic sixth Painleve' equation

Among the reductions of the resonant three-wave interaction system to six-dimensional differential systems, one of them has been specifically mentioned as being linked to the generic sixth Painleve' equation P6. We derive this link explicitly, and we establish the connection to a three-degree of freedom Hamiltonian previously considered for P6.Comment: 13 pages, 0 figure, J. Phys. A Special issue "One hundred years of Painleve' VI

A Tight Interaction between the Native Seagrass Cymodocea nodosa and the Exotic Halophila stipulacea in the Aegean Sea Highlights Seagrass Holobiont Variations

Seagrasses harbour bacterial communities with which they constitute a functional unit called holobiont that responds as a whole to environmental changes. Epiphytic bacterial communities rapidly respond to both biotic and abiotic factors, potentially contributing to the host fitness. The Lessepsian migrant Halophila stipulacea has a high phenotypical plasticity and harbours a highly diverse epiphytic bacterial community, which could support its invasiveness in the Mediterranean Sea. The current study aimed to evaluate the Halophila/Cymodocea competition in the Aegean Sea by analysing each of the two seagrasses in a meadow zone where these intermingled, as well as in their monospecific zones, at two depths. Differences in holobionts were evaluated using seagrass descriptors (morphometric, biochemical, elemental, and isotopic composition) to assess host changes, and 16S rRNA gene to identify bacterial community structure and composition. An Indicator Species Index was used to identify bacteria significantly associated with each host. In mixed meadows, native C. nodosa was shown to be affected by the presence of exotic H. stipulacea, in terms of both plant descriptors and bacterial communities, while H. stipulacea responded only to environmental factors rather than C. nodosa proximity. This study provided evidence of the competitive advantage of H. stipulacea on C. nodosa in the Aegean Sea and suggests the possible use of associated bacterial communities as an ecological seagrass descriptor

Economic evaluations using genetic algorithms to determine the territorial impact caused by high speed railways

The evolution of technology and construction techniques has enabled the upgrading of transport networks. In particular, the high-speed rail networks allow convoys to peak at above 300 km/h. These structures, however, often significantly impact the surrounding environment. Among the effects of greater importance are the ones provoked by the soundwave connected to train transit. The wave propagation affects the quality of life in areas surrounding the tracks, often for several hundred metres. There are substantial damages to properties (buildings and land), in terms of market depreciation. The present study, integrating expertise in acoustics, computering and evaluation fields, outlines a useful model to select project paths so as to minimize the noise impact and reduce the causes of possible litigation. It also facilitates the rational selection of initiatives to contain the environmental damage to the already existing railway tracks. The research is developed with reference to the Italian regulatory framework (usually more stringent than European and international standards) and refers to a case study concerning the high speed network in Italy