External validation of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine in patients with type 2 diabetes

Treatment guidelines recommend the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes, although validation studies showed moderate performance. The methods used in these validation studies were diverse, however, and sometimes insufficient. Hence, we assessed the discrimination and calibration of the UKPDS risk engine to predict 4, 5, 6 and 8 year cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes. The cohort included 1,622 patients with type 2 diabetes. During a mean follow-up of 8 years, patients were followed for incidence of CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Discrimination and calibration were assessed for 4, 5, 6 and 8 year risk. Discrimination was examined using the c-statistic and calibration by visually inspecting calibration plots and calculating the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) statistic. The UKPDS risk engine showed moderate to poor discrimination for both CHD and CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 for both 5 year CHD and CVD risks), and an overestimation of the risk (224% and 112%). The calibration of the UKPDS risk engine was slightly better for patients with type 2 diabetes who had been diagnosed with diabetes more than 10 years ago compared with patients diagnosed more recently, particularly for 4 and 5 year predicted CVD and CHD risks. Discrimination for these periods was still moderate to poor. We observed that the UKPDS risk engine overestimates CHD and CVD risk. The discriminative ability of this model is moderate, irrespective of various subgroup analyses. To enhance the prediction of CVD in patients with type 2 diabetes, this model should be update

Considerations for the treatment of pancreatic cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic: the UK consensus position.

Funder: DH | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000272Funder: Cancer Research UK (CRUK); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000289The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic epicentre has moved to the USA and Europe, where it is placing unprecedented demands on healthcare resources and staff availability. These service constraints, coupled with concerns relating to an increased incidence and severity of COVID-19 among patients with cancer, should lead to re-consideration of the risk-benefit balance for standard treatment pathways. This is of particular importance to pancreatic cancer, given that standard diagnostic modalities such as endoscopy may be restricted, and that disease biology precludes significant delays in treatment. In light of this, we sought consensus from UK clinicians with an interest in pancreatic cancer for management approaches that would minimise patient risk and accommodate for healthcare service restrictions. The outcomes are described here and include recommendations for treatment prioritisation, strategies to bridge to later surgical resection in resectable disease and factors that modify the risk-benefit balance for treatment in the resectable through to the metastatic settings. Priority is given to strategies that limit hospital visits, including through the use of hypofractionated precision radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy treatment approaches

Does delayed measurement affect patient reports of provider performance? Implications for performance measurement of medical assistance with tobacco cessation: A Dental PBRN study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background:</p> <p>We compared two methods of measuring provider performance of tobacco control activities: immediate "exit cards" versus delayed telephone follow-up surveys. Current standards, e.g. HEDIS, use delayed patient measures that may over or under-estimate overall performance.</p> <p>Methods:</p> <p>Patients completed exit cards in 60 dental practices immediately after a visit to measure whether the provider "asked" about tobacco use, and "advised" the patient to quit. One to six months later patients were asked the same questions by telephone survey. Using the exit cards as the standard, we quantified performance and calculated sensitivity (agreement of those responding yes on telephone surveys compared with exit cards) and specificity (agreement of those responding no) of the delayed measurement.</p> <p>Results:</p> <p>Among 150 patients, 21% reporting being asked about tobacco use on the exit cards and 30% reporting being asked in the delayed surveys. The sensitivity and specificity were 50% and 75%, respectively. Similarly, among 182 tobacco users, 38% reported being advised to quit on the exit cards and this increased to 51% on the delayed surveys. The sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 64%, respectively. Increasing the delay from the visit to the telephone survey resulted in increasing disagreement.</p> <p>Conclusion:</p> <p>Patient reports differed considerably in immediate versus delayed measures. These results have important implications because they suggest that our delayed measures may over-estimate performance. The immediate exit cards should be included in the armamentarium of tools for measuring providers' performance of tobacco control, and perhaps other service delivery.</p

Multiple populations in globular clusters. Lessons learned from the Milky Way globular clusters

Recent progress in studies of globular clusters has shown that they are not simple stellar populations, being rather made of multiple generations. Evidence stems both from photometry and spectroscopy. A new paradigm is then arising for the formation of massive star clusters, which includes several episodes of star formation. While this provides an explanation for several features of globular clusters, including the second parameter problem, it also opens new perspectives about the relation between globular clusters and the halo of our Galaxy, and by extension of all populations with a high specific frequency of globular clusters, such as, e.g., giant elliptical galaxies. We review progress in this area, focusing on the most recent studies. Several points remain to be properly understood, in particular those concerning the nature of the polluters producing the abundance pattern in the clusters and the typical timescale, the range of cluster masses where this phenomenon is active, and the relation between globular clusters and other satellites of our Galaxy.Comment: In press (The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review

Paternal and Maternal History of Myocardial Infarction and Cardiovascular Diseases Incidence in a Dutch Cohort of Middle-Aged Persons

Background - A positive parental history of myocardial infarction (MI) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, different definitions of parental history have been used. We evaluated the impact of parental gender and age of onset of MI on CVD incidence. Methods - Baseline data were collected between 1993 and 1997 in 10¿524 respondents aged 40–65 years. CVD events were obtained from the National Hospital Discharge Register and Statistics Netherlands. We used proportional hazard models to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for CVD incidence and adjusted for lifestyle and biological risk factors. Results - At baseline, 36% had a parental history of MI. During 10-year follow-up, 914 CVD events occurred. The age and gender adjusted HR was 1.3 (95% CI 1.1–1.5) for those with a paternal MI, 1.5 (1.2–1.8) for those with a maternal MI and 1.6 (1.2–2.2) for those with both parents with an MI. With decreasing parental age of MI, HR increased from 1.2 (1.0–1.6) for age =70 years to 1.5 (1.2–1.8) for ag

Combinations of Host Biomarkers Predict Mortality among Ugandan Children with Severe Malaria: A Retrospective Case-Control Study

Background: Severe malaria is a leading cause of childhood mortality in Africa. However, at presentation, it is difficult to predict which children with severe malaria are at greatest risk of death. Dysregulated host inflammatory responses and endothelial activation play central roles in severe malaria pathogenesis. We hypothesized that biomarkers of these processes would accurately predict outcome among children with severe malaria. Methodology/Findings: Plasma was obtained from children with uncomplicated malaria (n = 53), cerebral malaria (n = 44) and severe malarial anemia (n = 59) at time of presentation to hospital in Kampala, Uganda. Levels of angiopoietin-2, von Willebrand Factor (vWF), vWF propeptide, soluble P-selectin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), soluble endoglin, soluble FMS-like tyrosine kinase-1 (Flt-1), soluble Tie-2, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, 10 kDa interferon gamma-induced protein (IP-10), and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) were determined by ELISA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess predictive accuracy of individual biomarkers. Six biomarkers (angiopoietin-2, soluble ICAM-1, soluble Flt-1, procalcitonin, IP-10, soluble TREM-1) discriminated well between children who survived severe malaria infection and those who subsequently died (area under ROC curve&gt;0.7). Combinational approaches were applied in an attempt to improve accuracy. A biomarker score was developed based on dichotomization and summation of the six biomarkers, resulting in 95.7% (95% CI: 78.1-99.9) sensitivity and 88.8% (79.7-94.7) specificity for predicting death. Similar predictive accuracy was achieved with models comprised of 3 biomarkers. Classification tree analysis generated a 3-marker model with 100% sensitivity and 92.5% specificity (cross-validated misclassification rate: 15.4%, standard error 4.9%). Conclusions: We identified novel host biomarkers of pediatric severe and fatal malaria (soluble TREM-1 and soluble Flt-1) and generated simple biomarker combinations that accurately predicted death in an African pediatric population. While requiring validation in further studies, these results suggest the utility of combinatorial biomarker strategies as prognostic tests for severe malaria

Short and medium-term effects of an education self-management program for individuals with osteoarthritis of the knee, designed and delivered by health professionals: A quality assurance study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Self-management (SM) programs are effective for some chronic conditions, however the evidence for arthritis SM is inconclusive. The aim of this case series project was to determine whether a newly developed specific self-management program for people with osteoarthritis of the knee (OAK), implemented by health professionals could achieve and maintain clinically meaningful improvements.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p><it>Participants: </it>79 participants enrolled; mean age 66, with established osteoarthritis of the knee. People with coexisting inflammatory joint disease or serious co-morbidities were excluded.</p> <p><it>Intervention: </it>6-week disease (OA) and site (knee) specific self-management education program that included disease education, exercise advice, information on healthy lifestyle and relevant information within the constructs of self-management. This program was conducted in a community health care setting and was delivered by health professionals thereby utilising their knowledge and expertise.</p> <p><it>Measurements: </it>Pain, physical function and mental health scales were assessed at baseline, 8 weeks, 6 and 12 months using WOMAC and SF-36 questionnaires. Changes in pain during the 8-week intervention phase were monitored with VAS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pain improved during the intervention phase: mean (95% CI) change 15 (8 to 22) mm. Improvements (0.3 to 0.5 standard deviation units) in indices of pain, mental health and physical functioning, assessed by SF-36 and WOMAC questionnaires were demonstrated from baseline to 12 months.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This disease and site-specific self-management education program improved health status of people with osteoarthritis of the knee in the short and medium term.</p

Nine-year comparison of presentation and management of acute coronary syndromes in Ireland: a national cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND: Shorter time to treatment is associated with lower mortality in acute coronary syndromes (ACS). A previous (1994) survey showed substantial delays for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Ireland. The present study compared current practice with 1994 and surveyed acute coronary syndromes as a more complete contemporary evaluation of critical cardiac care than assessing AMI alone. METHODS: Following ethics committee approval, all centres (N = 39) admitting acute cardiac patients to intensive/coronary care unit provided information on 1365 episodes. A cross-sectional survey design was employed. RESULTS: Since 1994, median hospital arrival to thrombolysis time was reduced by 41% (76 to 45 minutes). Thrombolysis was delivered more often in the emergency department in 2003 (48% vs 2%). Thrombolysis when delivered in the emergency department was achieved faster than thrombolysis delivered in intensive/coronary care (35 mins v 60 mins; z = 5.62, p < .0001). Suspected AMI patients who did not subsequently receive thrombolysis took longer to present to hospital (5 h vs 2 h 34 mins; z = 7.33, p < .0001) and had longer transfer times to the intensive/coronary care unit following arrival (2 h 17 mins vs 1 h 10 mins; z = 8.92, p < .0001). Fewer confirmed AMI cases received thrombolysis in 2003 (43% vs 58%). There was an increase in confirmed cases of AMI from 1994 (70% to 87%). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial improvements in time to thrombolysis have occurred since 1994, probably relating to treatment provision in emergency departments. Patient delay pre-hospital is still the principal impediment to effective treatment of ACS. A recent change of definition of AMI may have precluded an exact comparison between 1994 and 2003 data