Perfect Simulation of M/G/cM/G/c Queues

In this paper we describe a perfect simulation algorithm for the stable $M/G/c$ queue. Sigman (2011: Exact Simulation of the Stationary Distribution of the FIFO M/G/c Queue. Journal of Applied Probability, 48A, 209--213) showed how to build a dominated CFTP algorithm for perfect simulation of the super-stable $M/G/c$ queue operating under First Come First Served discipline, with dominating process provided by the corresponding $M/G/1$ queue (using Wolff's sample path monotonicity, which applies when service durations are coupled in order of initiation of service), and exploiting the fact that the workload process for the $M/G/1$ queue remains the same under different queueing disciplines, in particular under the Processor Sharing discipline, for which a dynamic reversibility property holds. We generalize Sigman's construction to the stable case by comparing the $M/G/c$ queue to a copy run under Random Assignment. This allows us to produce a naive perfect simulation algorithm based on running the dominating process back to the time it first empties. We also construct a more efficient algorithm that uses sandwiching by lower and upper processes constructed as coupled $M/G/c$ queues started respectively from the empty state and the state of the $M/G/c$ queue under Random Assignment. A careful analysis shows that appropriate ordering relationships can still be maintained, so long as service durations continue to be coupled in order of initiation of service. We summarize statistical checks of simulation output, and demonstrate that the mean run-time is finite so long as the second moment of the service duration distribution is finite.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figure

Recalibrating the ‘world map’ of palliative care development

Background: Despite growing interest from policy makers, researchers and activists, there is still little science to underpin the global development of palliative care. This study presents the methods deployed in the creation of a ‘world map’ of palliative care development. Building on two previous iterations, with improved rigour and taking into account reviewers’ feedback, the aim of the study is to determine the level of palliative care development in 198 countries in 2017, whilst ensuring comparability with previous versions. We present methods of data collection and analysis. Methods and analysis: Primary data on the level of palliative care development in 2017 was collected from in-country experts through an online questionnaire and, where required, supplemented by published documentary sources and grey literature. Population and per capita opioid consumption data were derived from independent sources. Data analysis was conducted according to a new scoring system and algorithm developed by the research team. Ethics and dissemination: The study was approved by the University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences Research Ethics Committee. Findings of the study will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, as a contribution to the second edition of the Global Atlas of Palliative Care at the End-of-Life, and via social media, including the Glasgow End of Life Studies Group blog and the project website. Limitations of the study: There are potential biases associated with self-reporting by key in-country experts. In some countries, the identified key expert failed to complete the questionnaire in whole or part and data limitations were potentially compounded by language restrictions, as questionnaires were available only in three European languages. The study relied in part on data from independent sources, the accuracy of which could not be verified

Global development of children’s palliative care: the picture in 2017

Background: The growing interest in tracking the global development of palliative care provision is not matched by research on the development of palliative care services specifically for children. Yet it is estimated that worldwide, 21 million children annually could benefit from the provision of palliative care. We report on a global study of children’s palliative care development and offer suggestions for further improvement in design and method. Methods: Primary data on the level of children’s palliative care development in 2017 was collected from in-country experts through a specific question in an online questionnaire that sought to measure the overall level of palliative care provision globally. Countries were assigned to one of six categories on the basis of the responses obtained. Conflicting responses from the same country were resolved with reference to a hierarchy of preferred respondents. Results: Our data allowed the categorisation of 113 countries, accounting for 65% of the global population aged under 20. Number of countries (% of global child population) in each category were as follows: 1) no known activity, 21 (4%); 2) capacity-building, 16 (24%); 3a) isolated provision, 55 (30%); 3b) generalized provision, 5 (1%); 4a) preliminary integration into mainstream provision, 14 (8%); 4b) advanced integration, 7 (2%). Conclusions: Children’s palliative care at the highest level of provision is available in just 21 countries, accounting for fewer than 10% of the global population aged under 20. It is concentrated in high income settings, whilst the majority of the global need for such care is in low- and middle-income countries. Our study is a useful tool for global advocacy relating to children’s palliative care and a stimulus for the creation of improved indicators to measure it at the country level

Mapping levels of Palliative Care development in 198 Countries: the situation in 2017

Context Palliative care is gaining ground globally and is endorsed in high-level policy commitments, but service provision, supporting policies, education, and funding are incommensurate with rapidly growing needs. Objectives The objective of this study was to describe current levels of global palliative care development and report on changes since 2006. Methods An online survey of experts in 198 countries generated 2017 data on 10 indicators of palliative care provision, fitted to six categories of development. Factor analysis and discriminant analysis showed the validity of the categorization. Spearman correlation analyses assessed the relationship with World Bank Income Level (WBIL), Human Development Index (HDI), and Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Results Numbers (percentages) of countries in each development category were as follows: 1) no known palliative care activity, 47 (24%); 2) capacity-building, 13 (7%); 3a) isolated provision, 65 (33%); 3b) generalized provision, 22 (11%); 4a) preliminary integration into mainstream provision, 21 (11%); 4b) advanced integration, 30 (15%). Development levels were significantly associated with WBIL (rS = 0.4785), UHC (rS = 0.5558), and HDI (rS = 0.5426) with P < 0.001. Net improvement between 2006 and 2017 saw 32 fewer countries in Categories 1/2, 16 more countries in 3a/3b, and 17 more countries in 4a/4b. Conclusion Palliative care at the highest level of provision is available for only 14% of the global population and is concentrated in European countries. An 87% global increase in serious health-related suffering amenable to palliative care interventions is predicted by 2060. With an increasing need, palliative care is not reaching the levels required by at least half of the global population

Health and Climate–Needs

This paper describes the needs for climate risk management and information services for the health sector to serve research, educational and operational needs of ministries of health and their partners, those agencies that support broader public health service provision as well as respond to epidemics and emergencies. While climate information is considered highly relevant to helping guide improvements in public health provision, to date this information is largely underutilized. We explore some of the gaps in satisfying these needs, and we make recommendations to help fill the identified gaps

A cross-sectional study of vascular risk factors in a rural South African population : data from the Southern African Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI)

Background: Rural sub-Saharan Africa is at an early stage of economic and health transition. It is predicted that the 21st century will see a serious added economic burden from non-communicable disease including vascular disease in low-income countries as they progress through the transition. The stage of vascular disease in a population is thought to result from the prevalence of vascular risk factors. Already hypertension and stroke are common in adults in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a multidisciplinary approach we aimed to assess the prevalence of several vascular risk factors in Agincourt, a rural demographic surveillance site in South Africa. Methods: We performed a cross sectional random sample survey of adults aged over 35 in Agincourt (population ≈ 70 000). Participants were visited at home by a trained nurse who administered a questionnaire, carried out clinical measurements and took a blood sample. From this we assessed participants' history of vascular risk, blood pressure using an OMRON 705 CP monitor, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), ankle brachial index (ABI), and total and HDL cholesterol. Results: 402 people (24% men) participated. There was a high prevalence of smoking in men, but the number of cigarettes smoked was small. There was a striking difference in mean BMI between men and women (22.8 kg/m2 versus 27.2 kg/m2), but levels of blood pressure were very similar. 43% of participants had a blood pressure greater than 140/90 or were on anti-hypertensive treatment and 37% of participants identified with measured high blood pressure were on pharmacological treatment. 12% of participants had an ABI of < 0.9, sugesting the presence of sub-clinical atheroma. 25.6% of participants had a total cholesterol level > 5 mmol/l. Conclusion: We found a high prevalence of hypertension, obesity in women, and a suggestion of subclinical atheroma despite relatively favourable cholesterol levels in a rural South African population. South Africa is facing the challenge of an emerging epidemic of vascular disease. Research to establish the social determinates of these risk factors and interventions to reduce both individual and population risk are required

Miniature exoplanet radial velocity array I: design, commissioning, and early photometric results

The MINiature Exoplanet Radial Velocity Array (MINERVA) is a US-based observational facility dedicated to the discovery and characterization of exoplanets around a nearby sample of bright stars. MINERVA employs a robotic array of four 0.7 m telescopes outfitted for both high-resolution spec- troscopy and photometry, and is designed for completely autonomous operation. The primary science program is a dedicated radial velocity survey and the secondary science objective is to obtain high precision transit light curves. The modular design of the facility and the flexibility of our hardware allows for both science programs to be pursued simultaneously, while the robotic control software provides a robust and efficient means to carry out nightly observations. In this article, we describe the design of MINERVA including major hardware components, software, and science goals. The telescopes and photometry cameras are characterized at our test facility on the Caltech campus in Pasadena, CA, and their on-sky performance is validated. New observations from our test facility demonstrate sub-mmag photometric precision of one of our radial velocity survey targets, and we present new transit observations and fits of WASP-52b—a known hot-Jupiter with an inflated radius and misaligned orbit. The process of relocating the MINERVA hardware to its final destination at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory in southern Arizona has begun, and science operations are expected to commence within 2015

The role of religion in the longer-range future, April 6, 7, and 8, 2006

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This conference that took place during April 6, 7, and 8, 2006. Co-organized by David Fromkin, Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, and Ray L. Hart, Dean ad interim Boston University School of TheologyThe conference brought together some 40 experts from various disciplines to ponder upon the “great dilemma” of how science, religion, and the human future interact. In particular, different panels looked at trends in what is happening to religion around the world, questions about how religion is impacting the current political and economic order, and how the social dynamics unleashed by science and by religion can be reconciled.Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affair

Oral Contraceptives and Periodontal Diseases: Rethinking the Association Based Upon Analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141450/1/jper1374.pd