Consumption-Based Conservation Targeting: Linking Biodiversity Loss to Upstream Demand through a Global Wildlife Footprint.

Although most conservation efforts address the direct, local causes of biodiversity loss, effective long-term conservation will require complementary efforts to reduce the upstream economic pressures, such as demands for food and forest products, which ultimately drive these downstream losses. Here, we present a wildlife footprint analysis that links global losses of wild birds to consumer purchases across 57 economic sectors in 129 regions. The United States, India, China, and Brazil have the largest regional wildlife footprints, while per-person footprints are highest in Mongolia, Australia, Botswana, and the United Arab Emirates. A US$100 purchase of bovine meat or rice products occupies approximately 0.1 km2 of wild bird ranges, displacing 1-2 individual birds, for 1 year. Globally significant importer regions, including Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and France, have large footprints that drive wildlife losses elsewhere in the world and represent important targets for consumption-focused conservation attention

The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change

Abstract A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species -Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors -climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequencyemphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations

Conlisk_etal_seeds

Seed rain dat

Appendix A. Derivation of Theorem 1.

Derivation of Theorem 1

Appendix C. Derivation of Theorem 4.

Derivation of Theorem 4

Appendix D. A discussion of the statistical significance of results.

A discussion of the statistical significance of results