Helen J. PAUL, The South Sea Bubble: An Economic History of its Origins and Consequences, Nueva York, Routledge, 2011,176 pp.

El libro d

Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020

Stock market crashes have occurred very frequently in Spain. However, in the period 1850-2006, Spain had a lower probability of a depression being associated with a crash than in other countries, even though economic depressions were also common during the period. This result could be explained by the small size and low level of development of the stock market throughout most of this period. However, the probability rises when considering a longer period (1850-2018 and also until 2020), which includes the years of greater financial development and international integration. In this later period, Spain is more similar to other developed countries and stock market crashes seem to be more predictive of the prospect of a depression occurring, especially when the stock market crash is accompanied by a banking crisis. As a result, greater financial instability seems to be the main transmission mechanism between stock market crises and depressions.Las crisis bursátiles se han producido con mayor frecuencia en España. Sin embargo, en el periodo 1850-2006, España tuvo una menor probabilidad, que otros países, de que una depresión económica estuviera asociada a una crisis, a pesar de que las depresiones económicas también fueron comunes durante el periodo. Este resultado podría explicarse por el pequeño tamaño y bajo nivel de desarrollo del mercado bursátil durante la mayor parte de este periodo. Sin embargo, la probabilidad aumenta al considerar un lapso más largo (1850-2018 y también hasta 2020), que incluye los años de mayor desarrollo financiero e integración internacional. En este último periodo, España se parece más a otros países desarrollados y las crisis bursátiles parecen predecir en mayor medida la posibilidad de que se produzca una depresión, especialmente cuando la crisis bursátil va acompañada de una crisis bancaria. En consecuencia, una mayor inestabilidad financiera parece ser el principal mecanismo de transmisión entre las crisis bursátiles y las depresiones

Financial Crises In Spain: Lessons From The Last 150 Years

The financial disturbances that originated in the US in the second half of 2007 are the latest in a series of episodes in various regions of the world in recent years. However, financial crises are not unique to current financial systems, history being full of banking and exchange rate crises. Are crises alike? Do they share similar features or, on the contrary, are they strikingly distinct? Have they become more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe since the 20th century? Are we now living in a more vulnerable financial world? What does history tell us when comparing past and present crises? This paper chooses to address some of these questions for the case of Spain. The objective of this paper is to study the financial crises that have occurred in Spain over the last 150 years. Data are revised and different indicators constructed to identify financial crises. We consider all types of crises, namely currency, banking, stock market and debt crises and all their possible combinations, estimate their frequency by period and measure their length and depth. The Spanish case is compared to the results obtained for multi-country analyses in order to test whether the general conclusions obtained in those papers hold for one sole country. Finally, we perform an analysis of the main financial crises in order to establish hypotheses that could be tested in future research.financial crises, currency, banking, stock market and debt crises, Spanish banking history.

Two Great Banking Crises and Their Economic Impact Compared: Spain 1976/1977 and 2008

The 1976/1977 crisis was the most severe in Spanish history, but the losses associated with the 2008 crisis are huge. This paper compares these two great banking crises and identifies the main parallels and differences between them. Is the current crisis as severe as that of 1976? What is the impact on the banking and financial sectors? We show that the 1976 crisis is being surpassed by the 2008 crisis in terms of the decline in GDP, industrial production and unemployment, and that these two events have had at least a similar impact in terms of output gap and output loss. Finally, the financial impact measured by different financial indicators confirms the greater severity of the 2008 crisis.La crisis de 1976/77 fue la más severa de la historia en España, pero las pérdidas asociadas a la crisis de 2008 han sido también enormes. Este trabajo compara las dos grandes crisis bancarias e identifica los principales paralelismos y diferencias entre ambas. ¿Es la crisis actual tan severa como la de 1976? ¿Cuál ha sido su impacto en la banca y en el sector financiero? El trabajo muestra que la crisis de 1976 se ha visto sobrepasada por la de 2008 en términos de caída en el PIB, producción industrial y empleo, y que estos dos acontecimientos han tenido al menos un impacto similar en términos de output loss y output gap. Finalmente, el impacto financiero medido a través de diferentes indicadores confirma la mayor severidad de la crisis de 2008.This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MINECO) ECO2009-08791 and MINECO/FEDER ECO2015-66782-P