Flood risk management through a resilience lens

To prevent floods from becoming disasters, social vulnerability must be integrated into flood risk management. We advocate complementing conventional risk analysis by adopting a resilience lens in which the welfare of different societal groups is considered by adding recovery capacity, impacts of beyond design events, and distributional impacts

Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach

At the end of October 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and entered the United States not far from New York. Along its track, Sandy caused more than 200 fatalities and severe losses in Jamaica, The Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and the US. This paper demonstrates the capability and potential for near-real-time analysis of catastrophes. It is shown that the impact of Sandy was driven by the superposition of different extremes (high wind speeds, storm surge, heavy precipitation) and by cascading effects. In particular the interaction between Sandy and an extra-tropical weather system created a huge storm that affected large areas in the US. It is examined how Sandy compares to historic hurricane events, both from a hydro-meteorological and impact perspective. The distribution of losses to different sectors of the economy is calculated with simple input-output models as well as government estimates. Direct economic losses are estimated about USD 4.2 billion in the Caribbean and between USD 78 and 97 billion in the US. Indirect economic losses from power outages is estimated in the order of USD 16.3 billion. Modelling sector-specific dependencies quantifies total business interruption losses between USD 10.8 and 15.5 billion. Thus, seven years after the record impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Sandy is the second costliest hurricane in the history of the United States

Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach

At the end of October 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and entered the United States not far from New York. Along its track, Sandy caused more than 200 fatalities and severe losses in Jamaica, The Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and the US. This paper demonstrates the capability and potential for near-real-time analysis of catastrophes. It is shown that the impact of Sandy was driven by the superposition of different extremes (high wind speeds, storm surge, heavy precipitation) and by cascading effects. In particular the interaction between Sandy and an extra-tropical weather system created a huge storm that affected large areas in the US. It is examined how Sandy compares to historic hurricane events, both from a hydro-meteorological and impact perspective. The distribution of losses to different sectors of the economy is calculated with simple input-output models as well as government estimates. Direct economic losses are estimated about USD 4.2 billion in the Caribbean and between USD 78 and 97 billion in the US. Indirect economic losses from power outages is estimated in the order of USD 16.3 billion. Modelling sector-specific dependencies quantifies total business interruption losses between USD 10.8 and 15.5 billion. Thus, seven years after the record impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Sandy is the second costliest hurricane in the history of the United States

Polarization Dependence of Born Effective Charge and Dielectric Constant in KNbO3_3

The Born effective charge Z^{*} and dielectric tensor \epsilon_{\infty} of KNbO_3 are found to be very sensitive to the atomic geometry, changing by as much as 27% between the paraelectric cubic and ferroelectric tetragonal and rhombohedral phases. Subtracting the bare ionic contribution reveals changes of the dynamic component of Z^{*} as large as 50%, for atomic displacements that are typically only a few percent of the lattice constant. Z^{*}, \epsilon_{\infty} and all phonon frequencies at the Brillouin zone center were calculated using the {\it ab initio} linearized augmented plane-wave linear response method with respect to the reference cubic, experimental tetragonal, and theoretically determined rhombohedral ground state structures. The ground state rhombohedral structure of KNbO_3 was determined by minimizing the forces on the relaxed atoms. By contrast with the cubic structure, all zone center phonon modes of the rhombohedral structure are stable and their frequencies are in good agreement with experiment. In the tetragonal phase, one of the soft zone center modes in the cubic phase is stablized. In view of the small atomic displacements involved in the ferroelectric transitions, it is evident that not only the soft mode frequencies but also the Born effective charge and dielectric constants are very sensitive to the atomic geometry.Comment: 26 pages, revtex, no figures; to appear in Phys. Rev. B15 (Oct.), 199

Comparison of the Electronic Structures and Energetics of Ferroelectric LiNbO3 and LiTaO3

This paper explains the origin of the ferroelectric instability in LiNbO3 and LiTaO3 and compares the electronic structures and energetics of the two materials.Comment: 31 pages, 11 Postscript figure

Cystatin A, a Potential Common Link for Mutant Myocilin Causative Glaucoma

Myocilin (MYOC) is a 504 aa secreted glycoprotein induced by stress factors in the trabecular meshwork tissue of the eye, where it was discovered. Mutations in MYOC are linked to glaucoma. The glaucoma phenotype of each of the different MYOC mutation varies, but all of them cause elevated intraocular pressure (IOP). In cells, forty percent of wild-type MYOC is cleaved by calpain II, a cysteine protease. This proteolytic process is inhibited by MYOC mutants. In this study, we investigated the molecular mechanisms by which MYOC mutants cause glaucoma. We constructed adenoviral vectors with variants Q368X, R342K, D380N, K423E, and overexpressed them in human trabecular meshwork cells. We analyzed expression profiles with Affymetrix U133Plus2 GeneChips using wild-type and null viruses as controls. Analysis of trabecular meshwork relevant mechanisms showed that the unfolded protein response (UPR) was the most affected. Search for individual candidate genes revealed that genes that have been historically connected to trabecular meshwork physiology and pathology were altered by the MYOC mutants. Some of those had known MYOC associations (MMP1, PDIA4, CALR, SFPR1) while others did not (EDN1, MGP, IGF1, TAC1). Some, were top-changed in only one mutant (LOXL1, CYP1B1, FBN1), others followed a mutant group pattern. Some of the genes were new (RAB39B, STC1, CXCL12, CSTA). In particular, one selected gene, the cysteine protease inhibitor cystatin A (CSTA), was commonly induced by all mutants and not by the wild-type. Subsequent functional analysis of the selected gene showed that CSTA was able to reduce wild-type MYOC cleavage in primary trabecular meshwork cells while an inactive mutated CSTA was not. These findings provide a new molecular understanding of the mechanisms of MYOC-causative glaucoma and reveal CSTA, a serum biomarker for cancer, as a potential biomarker and drug for the treatment of MYOC-induced glaucoma

A new focus on risk reduction: an ad hoc decision support system for humanitarian relief logistics

Particularly in the early phases of a disaster, logistical decisions are needed to be made quickly and under high pressure for the decision‐makers, knowing that their decisions may have direct consequences on the affected society and all future decisions. Proactive risk reduction may be helpful in providing decision‐makers with optimal strategies in advance. However, disasters are characterized by severe uncertainty and complexity, limited knowledge about the causes of the disaster, and continuous change of the situation in unpredicted ways. Following these assumptions, we believe that adequate proactive risk reduction measures are not practical. We propose strengthening the focus on ad hoc decision support to capture information in almost real time and to process information efficiently to reveal uncertainties that had not been previously predicted. Therefore, we present an ad hoc decision support system that uses scenario techniques to capture uncertainty by future developments of a situation and an optimization model to compute promising decision options. By combining these aspects in a dynamic manner and integrating new information continuously, it can be ensured that a decision is always based on the best currently available and processed information. And finally, to identify a robust decision option that is provided as a decision recommendation to the decision‐makers, methods of multi‐attribute decision making (MADM) are applied. Our approach is illustrated for a facility location decision problem arising in humanitarian relief logistics where the objective is to identify robust locations for tent hospitals to serve injured people in the immediate aftermath of the Haiti Earthquake 2010.Frank Schätter, Marcus Wiens and Frank Schultman