Short-term forecasting of intermodal freight using ANNs and SVR: Case of the Port of Algeciras Bay

[EN] Forecasting of future intermodal traffic demand is very important for decision making in ports operations management. The use of accurate prediction tools is an issue that awakens a lot of interest among transport researchers. Intermodal freight forecasting plays an important role in ports management and in the planning of the principal port activities. Hence, the study is carried out under the motivation of knowing that modeling the freight transport flows could facilitate the management of the infrastructure and optimize the resources of the ports facilities. The use of advanced models for freight forecasting is essential to improve the port level-service and competitiveness. In this paper, two forecasting-models are presented and compared to predict the freight volume. The models developed and tested are based on Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. Both techniques are based in a historical data and these methods forecast the daily weight of the freight with one week in advance. The performance of the models is evaluated on real data from Ro-Ro freight transport in the Port of Algeciras Bay. This work proposes and compares different approaches to determine the best prediction. In order to select the best model a multicomparison procedure is developed using several statistical test. The results of the assessed models show a promising tool to predict Ro-Ro transport flows with accuracy.Moscoso López, J.; Turias, I.; Jimenez Come, M.; Ruiz-Aguilar, J.; Cerban, M. (2016). Short-term forecasting of intermodal freight using ANNs and SVR: Case of the Port of Algeciras Bay. En XII Congreso de ingeniería del transporte. 7, 8 y 9 de Junio, Valencia (España). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 1501-1509. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2015.3464OCS1501150

ANANALYTICAL STUDY OF MARBLE CONSOLIDATION BY OXALATE PRECIPITATION USING DENSITY, FTIR AND POWDER-XRD MEASUREMENTS

oai:ojs2.www.jepm.rs.ba:article/28Our recent study on consolidation of marble samples with the purpose of culture heritage protection occurred by periodical calcium oxalate precipitation on top of quasi parallelepipedic samples. The overall process consisting of three stages of treatment, starting with 5 % calcium acetate solution for 60 minutes at 20°C, a draining step at 70°C for 30 min, followed by a treatment with 5 % ammonium sulfate solution, it followed with the third stage which includes the treatment with 5% ammonium oxalate solution revealed a continuous density increace, determined using ethanol. As the natural samples had an initial density of 2.5871 g/cm3 , it increased up to 2.6980 g/cm3 for 50 times treatments. The precipitation of oxalate on top of calcium carbonate substrate, in form of calcite, revealed two distinguished infra-red bands, at 1316 cm-1 and 1624 cm-1 unsymmetrically located around the carbonate one at 1426 cm-1 .The intensity of the bands was proportional to the number of treatments. The continuous surface coverage investigated in parallel by powder XRD evidenced the presence of whewellite crystallites deposited on top of calcite, and their intensity increasing as well with the number of treatments. This method exhibits a reliable oxalate coverage of marble sample surfaces which doesn’t influence considerably their water solubility

Framingham score and work-related variables for predicting cardiovascular disease in the working population

Background: The Framingham score is commonly used to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study investigated whether work-related variables improve Framingham score predictions of sickness absence due to CVD. Methods: Eleven occupational health survey variables (descent, marital status, education, work type, work pace, cognitive demands, supervisor support, co-worker support, commitment to work, intrinsic work motivation and distress) and the Framingham Point Score (FPS) were combined into a multi-variable logistic regression model for CVD sickness absence during 1-year follow-up of 19 707 survey participants. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to investigate the added value of work-related variables to the FPS risk classification. Discrimination between participants with and without CVD sickness absence during follow-up was investigated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: A total of 129 (0.7%) occupational health survey participants had CVD sickness absence during 1-year follow-up. Manual work and high cognitive demands, but not the other work-related variables contributed to the FPS predictions of CVD sickness absence. However, work type and cognitive demands did not improve the FPS classification for risk of CVD sickness absence [NRI = 2.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.7 to 9.5%; P = 0.629]. The FPS discriminated well between participants with and without CVD sickness absence (AUC = 0.759; 95% CI 0.724-0.794). Conclusion: Work-related variables did not improve predictions of CVD sickness absence by the FPS. The non-laboratory Framingham score can be used to identify health survey participants at risk of CVD sickness absence

Systemic restoration of UBA1 ameliorates disease in spinal muscular atrophy

Acknowledgments Blood biochemistry analysis and serum analysis were performed by the Easter Bush Pathology Department, University of Edinburgh. Animal husbandry was performed by Centre for Integrative Physiology bio-research restructure technical staff, University of Edinburgh. Assistance with intravenous injections was provided by Ian Coldicott (University of Sheffield) and Hannah Shorrock (University of Edinburgh). Human blood cDNA was a gift to GH from Kathy Evans, University of Edinburgh. Imaging was performed at the IMPACT imaging facility, University of Edinburgh, with technical assistance from Anisha Kubasik-Thayil. The authors would also like to thank Lyndsay Murray for technical discussions relating to qRT-PCR analysis. This work was supported by funding from the SMA Trust and the Anatomical Society (via grants to THG); the Euan MacDonald Centre for Motor Neurone Disease Research (via grants to THG and SHP); the Wellcome Trust (via grants to EJNG and THG); Muscular Dystrophy UK (via grants to THG and CGB); a Elphinstone Scholarship from the University of Aberdeen (to SHP); and The French Muscular Dystrophy Association (via grants to CM and JC).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

On the statistical mechanics of prion diseases

We simulate a two-dimensional, lattice based, protein-level statistical mechanical model for prion diseases (e.g., Mad Cow disease) with concommitant prion protein misfolding and aggregation. Our simulations lead us to the hypothesis that the observed broad incubation time distribution in epidemiological data reflect fluctuation dominated growth seeded by a few nanometer scale aggregates, while much narrower incubation time distributions for innoculated lab animals arise from statistical self averaging. We model `species barriers' to prion infection and assess a related treatment protocol.Comment: 5 Pages, 3 eps figures (submitted to Physical Review Letters

Adaptive mutation using statistics mechanism for genetic algorithms

Copyright @ 2004 Springer-Verla

Anatomical localization of progenitor cells in human breast tissue reveals enrichment of uncommitted cells within immature lobules

Introduction: Lineage tracing studies in mice have revealed the localization and existence of lineage-restricted mammary epithelial progenitor cells that functionally contribute to expansive growth during puberty and differentiation during pregnancy. However, extensive anatomical differences between mouse and human mammary tissues preclude the direct translation of rodent findings to the human breast. Therefore, here we characterize the mammary progenitor cell hierarchy and identify the anatomic location of progenitor cells within human breast tissues. Methods: Mammary epithelial cells (MECs) were isolated from disease-free reduction mammoplasty tissues and assayed for stem/progenitor activity in vitro and in vivo. MECs were sorted and evaluated for growth on collagen and expression of lineages markers. Breast lobules were microdissected and individually characterized based on lineage markers and steroid receptor expression to identify the anatomic location of progenitor cells. Spanning-tree progression analysis of density-normalized events (SPADE) was used to identify the cellular hierarchy of MECs within lobules from high-dimensional cytometry data. Results: Integrating multiple assays for progenitor activity, we identified the presence of luminal alveolar and basal ductal progenitors. Further, we show that Type I lobules of the human breast were the least mature, demonstrating an unrestricted pattern of expression of luminal and basal lineage markers. Consistent with this, SPADE analysis revealed that immature lobules were enriched for basal progenitor cells, while mature lobules consisted of increased hierarchal complexity of cells within the luminal lineages. Conclusions: These results reveal underlying differences in the human breast epithelial hierarchy and suggest that with increasing glandular maturity, the epithelial hierarchy also becomes more complex. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-014-0453-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The pacing stress test: Thallium-201 myocardial imaging after atrial pacing. Diagnostic value in detecting coronary artery disease compared with exercise testing

Many patients suspected of having coronary artery disease are unable to undergo adequate exercise testing. An alternate stress, pacing tachycardia, has been shown to produce electrocardiographic changes that are as sensitive and specific as those observed during exercise testing. To compare thallium-201 imaging after atrial pacing stress with thallium imaging after exercise stress, 22 patients undergoing cardiac catheterization were studied with both standard exercise thallium imaging and pacing thallium imaging.Positive ischemic electrocardiographic changes (> 1 mm ST segment depression) were noted in 11 of 16 patients with coronary artery disease during exercise, and in 15 of the 16 patients during atrial pacing. One of six patients with normal or trivial coronary artery disease had a positive electrocardiogram with each test. Exercise thallium imaging was positive in 13 of 16 patients with coronary artery disease compared with 15 of 16 patients during atrial pacing. Three of six patients without coronary artery disease had a positive scan with exercise testing, and two of these same patients developed a positive scan with atrial pacing. Of those patients with coronary artery disease and an abnormal scan, 85% showed redistribution with exercise testing compared with 87% during atrial pacing. Segment by segment comparison of thallium imaging after either atrial pacing or exercise showed that there was a good correlation of the location and severity of the thallium defects (r = 0.83, p = 0.0001, Spearman rank correlation).It is concluded that the location and presence of both fixed and transient thallium defects after atrial pacing are closely correlated with the findings after exercise testing. Thus, atrial pacing may be used as a stress for myocardial perfusion scintigraphy in patients unable to complete a satisfactory exercise test

Impaired left atrial mechanical function after cardioversion: Relation to the duration of atrial fibrillation

AbstractObjectives. We hypothesized that the time course of the recovery of atrial systolic function may be related to the duration of atrial fibrillation before cardioversion and sought to study noninvesively the recovery of left atrial mechanical function utilizing serial transthoracic Doppler studies.Background. Recovery of atrial mechanical function may be delayed for several weeks after successful cardioversion of atrial fibrillation to sinus rhythm.Methods. After successful cardioversion, 60 patients with atrial fibrillation of brief (≤2 week, 17 patients), moderate (>2 to 6 weeks, 22 patients) or prolonged (>6 weeks, 21 patients) duration were followed up with serial transmitral pulsed Doppler echocardiography immediately (60 patients) and at 24 h (45 patients), 1 week (41 patients), 1 month (31 patients) and >3 months (30 patients) after cardioversion.Results. Atrial mechanical function is greater immediately and at 24 h and 1 week after cardioversion in patients with “brief” compared with “prolonged” atrial fibrillation. In all groups, atrial mechanical function increases over time, ultimately achieving similar levels. Full recovery of atrial mechanical function, however, is achieved within 24 h in patients with brief atrial fibrillation, within 1 week in patients with moderate-duration atrial fibrillation and within 1 month in patients with prolonged atrial fibrillation.Conclusions. Recovery of left atrial mechanical function is related to the duration of atrial fibrillation before cardioversion. These findings have important implications for assessing the early hemodynamic benefit of successful cardioversion

Digital Quantification of Gene Expression in Sequential Breast Cancer Biopsies Reveals Activation of an Immune Response

Advancements in molecular biology have unveiled multiple breast cancer promoting pathways and potential therapeutic targets. Large randomized clinical trials remain the ultimate means of validating therapeutic efficacy, but they require large cohorts of patients and are lengthy and costly. A useful approach is to conduct a window of opportunity study in which patients are exposed to a drug pre-surgically during the interval between the core needle biopsy and the definitive surgery. These are non-therapeutic studies and the end point is not clinical or pathological response but rather evaluation of molecular changes in the tumor specimens that can predict response. However, since the end points of the non-therapeutic studies are biologic, it is critical to first define the biologic changes that occur in the absence of treatment. In this study, we compared the molecular profiles of breast cancer tumors at the time of the diagnostic biopsy versus the definitive surgery in the absence of any intervention using the Nanostring nCounter platform. We found that while the majority of the transcripts did not vary between the two biopsies, there was evidence of activation of immune related genes in response to the first biopsy and further investigations of the immune changes after a biopsy in early breast cancer seem warranted