Relating Spatial Patterns of Stream Metabolism to Distributions of Juveniles Salmonids at the River Network Scale

Understanding the factors that drive spatial patterns in stream ecosystem processes and the distribution of aquatic biota is important to effective management of these systems and the conservation of biota at the network scale. In this study, we conducted field surveys throughout an extensive river network in NE Oregon that supports diminishing populations of wild salmonids. We collected data on physical habitat, nutrient concentrations, biofilm standing stocks, stream metabolism (gross primary production [GPP] and ecosystem respiration [ER]), and ESA‐listed juvenile salmonid density from approximately 50 sites across two sub‐basins. Our goals were to (1) to evaluate network patterns in these metrics, and (2) determine network‐scale linkages among these metrics, thus providing inference of processes driving observed patterns. Ambient nitrate‐N and phosphate‐P concentrations were low across both sub‐basins (\u3c40 μg/L). Nitrate‐N decreased with watershed area in both sub‐basins, but phosphate‐P only decreased in one sub‐basin. These spatial patterns suggest co‐limitation in one sub‐basin but N limitation in the other; experimental results using nutrient diffusing substrates across both sub‐basins supported these predictions. Solar exposure, temperature, GPP, ER, and GPP:ER increased with watershed area, but biofilm Chl a and ash‐free dry mass (AFDM) did not. Spatial statistical network (SSN) models explained between 70% and 75% of the total variation in biofilm Chl a, AFDM, and GPP, but only 21% of the variation in ER. Temperature and nutrient concentrations were the most supported predictors of Chl aand AFDM standing stocks, but these variables explained little of the total variation compared to spatial autocorrelation. In contrast, solar exposure and temperature were the most supported variables explaining GPP, and these variables explained far more variation than autocorrelation. Solar exposure, temperature, and nutrient concentrations explained almost none of the variation in ER. Juvenile salmonids—a key management focus in these sub‐basins—were most abundant in cool stream sections where rates of GPP were low, suggesting temperature constraints on these species restrict their distribution to oligotrophic areas where energy production at the base of the food web may be limited

Evaluation of a longitudinal family stress model in a population‐based cohort

The family stress model (FSM) is an influential family process model that posits that socioeconomic disadvantage impacts child outcomes via its effects on the parents. Existing evaluations of the FSM are constrained by limited measures of socioeconomic disadvantage, cross‐sectional research designs, and reliance on non‐population‐based samples. The current study tested the FSM in a subsample of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 2,918), a large population‐based study of children followed from birth through the age of nine. We employed a longitudinal framework and used measures of socioeconomic disadvantage beyond economic resources. Although the hypothesized FSM pathways were identified in the longitudinal model (e.g., economic pressure at the age of one was associated with maternal distress at the age of three, maternal distress at the age of three was associated with parenting behaviors at the age of five), the effects of socioeconomic disadvantage at childbirth on youth socioemotional outcomes at the age of nine did not operate through all of the hypothesized mediators. In longitudinal change models that accounted for the stability in constructs, multiple indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage at childbirth were indirectly associated with youth externalizing behaviors at the age of nine via either economic pressure at the age of one or changes in maternal warmth from ages 3 to 5. Greater economic pressure at the age of one, increases in maternal distress from ages 1 to 3, and decreases/increases in maternal warmth/harshness from ages 3 to 5 were also directly associated with increases in externalizing behaviors from ages 5 to 9. Results provide partial support for the FSM across the first decade of life.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163397/2/sode12446.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163397/1/sode12446_am.pd

Charmed meson decay constants in three-flavor lattice QCD

We present the first lattice QCD calculation with realistic sea quark content of the D^+ meson decay constant f_{D^+}. We use the MILC Collaboration's publicly available ensembles of lattice gauge fields, which have a quark sea with two flavors (up and down) much lighter than a third (strange). We obtain f_{D^+} = 201 +/- 3 +/- 17 MeV, where the errors are statistical and a combination of systematic errors. We also obtain f_{D_s} = 249 +/- 3 +/- 16 MeV for the D_s meson.Comment: note added on recent CLEO measurement; PRL versio

Invasion of freshwater ecosystems is promoted by network connectivity to hotspots of human activity

Aim: Hotspots of human activity are focal points for ecosystem disturbance and non‐native introduction, from which invading populations disperse and spread. As such, connectivity to locations used by humans may influence the likelihood of invasion. Moreover, connectivity in freshwater ecosystems may follow the hydrological network. Here we tested whether multiple forms of connectivity to human recreational activities promotes biological invasion of freshwater ecosystems. Location: England, UK. Time period: 1990–2018. Major taxa studied: One hundred and twenty‐six non‐native freshwater birds, crustaceans, fish, molluscs and plants. Methods: Machine learning was used to predict spatial gradients in human recreation and two high risk activities for invasion (fishing and water sports). Connectivity indices were developed for each activity, in which human influence decayed from activity hotspots according to Euclidean distance (spatial connectivity) or hydrological network distance (downstream, upstream and along‐channel connectivity). Generalized linear mixed models identified the connectivity type most associated to invasive species richness of each group, while controlling for other anthropogenic and environmental drivers. Results: Connectivity to humans generally had stronger positive effects on invasion than all other drivers except recording effort. Recreation had stronger influence than urban land cover, and for most groups high risk activities had stronger effects than general recreation. Downstream human connectivity was most important for invasion by most of the groups, potentially reflecting predominantly hydrological dispersal. An exception was birds, for which spatial connectivity was most important, possibly because of overland dispersal capacity. Main conclusions: These findings support the hypothesis that freshwater invasion is partly determined by an interaction between human activity and species dispersal in the hydrological network. By comparing alternative connectivity types for different human activities, our approach could enable robust inference of specific pathways and spread mechanisms associated with particular taxa. This would provide evidence to support better prioritization of surveillance and management for invasive non‐native species

Developments in determining the gravitational potential using toroidal functions

have shown how the integration/summation expression for the Green's function in cylindrical coordinates can be written as an azimuthal Fourier series expansion, with toroidal functions as expansion coefficients. In this paper, we show how this compact representation can be extended to other rotationally invariant coordinate systems which are known to admit separable solutions for Laplace's equation

The devil is in the details: trends in avoidable hospitalization rates by geography in British Columbia, 1990–2000

BACKGROUND: Researchers and policy makers have focussed on the development of indicators to help monitor the success of regionalization, primary care reform and other health sector restructuring initiatives. Certain indicators are useful in examining issues of equity in service provision, especially among older populations, regardless of where they live. AHRs are used as an indicator of primary care system efficiency and thus reveal information about access to general practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to examine trends in avoidable hospitalization rates (AHRs) during a period of time characterized by several waves of health sector restructuring and regionalization in British Columbia. AHRs are examined in relation to non-avoidable and total hospitalization rates as well as by urban and rural geography across the province. METHODS: Analyses draw on linked administrative health data from the province of British Columbia for 1990 through 2000 for the population aged 50 and over. Joinpoint regression analyses and t-tests are used to detect and describe trends in the data. RESULTS: Generally speaking, non-avoidable hospitalizations constitute the vast majority of hospitalizations in a given year (i.e. around 95%) with AHRs constituting the remaining 5% of hospitalizations. Comparing rural areas and urban areas reveals that standardized rates of avoidable, non-avoidable and total hospitalizations are consistently higher in rural areas. Joinpoint regression results show significantly decreasing trends overall; lines are parallel in the case of avoidable hospitalizations, and lines are diverging for non-avoidable and total hospitalizations, with the gap between rural and urban areas being wider at the end of the time interval than at the beginning. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that access to effective primary care in rural communities remains problematic in BC given that rural areas did not make any gains in AHRs relative to urban areas under recent health sector restructuring initiatives. It remains important to continue to monitor the discrepancy between them as a reflection of inequity in service provision. In addition, it is important to consider alternative explanations for the observed trends paying particular attention to the needs of rural and urban populations and the factors influencing local service provision

Reviewing progress: 7 Year Trends in Characteristics of Adults and Children Enrolled at HIV Care and Treatment Clinics in the United Republic of Tanzania.

To evaluate the on-going scale-up of HIV programs, we assessed trends in patient characteristics at enrolment and ART initiation over 7 years of implementation. Data were from Optimal Models, a prospective open cohort study of HIV-infected (HIV+) adults (>=15 years) and children (<15 years) enrolled from January 2005 to December 2011 at 44 HIV clinics in 3 regions of mainland Tanzania (Kagera, Kigoma, Pwani) and Zanzibar. Comparative statistics for trends in characteristics of patients enrolled in 2005--2007, 2008--2009 and 2010--2011 were examined. Overall 62,801 HIV+ patients were enrolled: 58,102(92.5%) adults, (66.5% female); 4,699(7.5%) children.Among adults, pregnant women enrolment increased: 6.8%, 2005--2007; 12.1%, 2008--2009; 17.2%, 2010--2011; as did entry into care from prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) programs: 6.6%, 2005--2007; 9.5%, 2008--2009; 12.6%, 2010--2011. WHO stage IV at enrolment declined: 27.1%, 2005--2007; 20.2%, 2008--2009; 11.1% 2010--2011. Of the 42.5% and 29.5% with CD4+ data at enrolment and ART initiation respectively, median CD4+ count increased: 210cells/muL, 2005--2007; 262cells/muL, 2008--2009; 266cells/muL 2010--2011; but median CD4+ at ART initiation did not change (148cells/muL overall). Stavudine initiation declined: 84.9%, 2005--2007; 43.1%, 2008--2009; 19.7%, 2010--2011.Among children, median age (years) at enrolment decreased from 6.1(IQR:2.7-10.0) in 2005--2007 to 4.8(IQR:1.9-8.6) in 2008--2009, and 4.1(IQR:1.5-8.1) in 2010--2011 and children <24 months increased from 18.5% to 26.1% and 31.5% respectively. Entry from PMTCT was 7.0%, 2005--2007; 10.7%, 2008--2009; 15.0%, 2010--2011. WHO stage IV at enrolment declined from 22.9%, 2005--2007, to 18.3%, 2008--2009 to 13.9%, 2010--2011. Proportion initiating stavudine was 39.8% 2005--2007; 39.5%, 2008--2009; 26.1%, 2010--2011. Median age at ART initiation also declined significantly. Over time, the proportion of pregnant women and of adults and children enrolled from PMTCT programs increased. There was a decline in adults and children with advanced HIV disease at enrolment and initiation of stavudine. Pediatric age at enrolment and ART initiation declined. Results suggest HIV program maturation from an emergency response

A method to determine spatial access to specialized palliative care services using GIS

Background: Providing palliative care is a growing priority for health service administratorsworldwide as the populations of many nations continue to age rapidly. In many countries, palliativecare services are presently inadequate and this problem will be exacerbated in the coming years.The provision of palliative care, moreover, has been piecemeal in many jurisdictions and there islittle distinction made at present between levels of service provision. There is a pressing need todetermine which populations do not enjoy access to specialized palliative care services in particular.Methods: Catchments around existing specialized palliative care services in the Canadian provinceof British Columbia were calculated based on real road travel time. Census block face populationcounts were linked to postal codes associated with road segments in order to determine thepercentage of the total population more than one hour road travel time from specialized palliativecare.Results: Whilst 81% of the province\u27s population resides within one hour from at least onespecialized palliative care service, spatial access varies greatly by regional health authority. Based onthe definition of specialized palliative care adopted for the study, the Northern Health Authorityhas, for instance, just two such service locations, and well over half of its population do not havereasonable spatial access to such care.Conclusion: Strategic location analysis methods must be developed and used to accurately locatefuture palliative services in order to provide spatial access to the greatest number of people, andto ensure that limited health resources are allocated wisely. Improved spatial access has thepotential to reduce travel-times for patients, for palliative care workers making home visits, and fortravelling practitioners. These methods are particularly useful for health service planners – andprovide a means to rationalize their decision-making. Moreover, they are extendable to a numberof health service allocation problems

Thresholds of fire response to moisture and fuel load differ between tropical savannas and grasslands across continents

Aim An emerging framework for tropical ecosystems states that fire activity is either “fuel build‐up limited” or “fuel moisture limited”, that is, as you move up along rainfall gradients, the major control on fire occurrence switches from being the amount of fuel, to the moisture content of the fuel. Here we used remotely sensed datasets to assess whether interannual variability of burned area is better explained by annual rainfall totals driving fuel build‐up, or by dry season rainfall driving fuel moisture. Location Pantropical savannas and grasslands. Time period 2002–2016. Methods We explored the response of annual burned area to interannual variability in rainfall. We compared several linear models to understand how fuel moisture and fuel build‐up effect (accumulated rainfall during 6 and 24 months prior to the end of the burning season, respectively) determine the interannual variability of burned area and explore if tree cover, dry season duration and human activity modified these relationships. Results Fuel and moisture controls on fire occurrence in tropical savannas varied across continents. Only 24% of South American savannas were fuel build‐up limited against 61% of Australian savannas and 47% of African savannas. On average, South America switched from fuel limited to moisture limited at 500 mm/year, Africa at 800 mm/year and Australia at 1,000 mm/year of mean annual rainfall. Main conclusions In 42% of tropical savannas (accounting for 41% of current area burned) increased drought and higher temperatures will not increase fire, but there are savannas, particularly in South America, that are likely to become more flammable with increasing temperatures. These findings highlight that we cannot transfer knowledge of fire responses to global change across ecosystems/regions—local solutions to local fire management issues are required, and different tropical savanna regions may show contrasting responses to the same drivers of global change