Forecasting in the light of Big Data

Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view. This owes to the fact that forecasting lends itself to two equally radical, yet opposite methodologies. A reductionist one, based on the first principles, and the naive inductivist one, based only on data. This latter view has recently gained some attention in response to the availability of unprecedented amounts of data and increasingly sophisticated algorithmic analytic techniques. The purpose of this note is to assess critically the role of big data in reshaping the key aspects of forecasting and in particular the claim that bigger data leads to better predictions. Drawing on the representative example of weather forecasts we argue that this is not generally the case. We conclude by suggesting that a clever and context-dependent compromise between modelling and quantitative analysis stands out as the best forecasting strategy, as anticipated nearly a century ago by Richardson and von Neumann

Potentiation of thrombus instability: a contributory mechanism to the effectiveness of antithrombotic medications

© The Author(s) 2018The stability of an arterial thrombus, determined by its structure and ability to resist endogenous fibrinolysis, is a major determinant of the extent of infarction that results from coronary or cerebrovascular thrombosis. There is ample evidence from both laboratory and clinical studies to suggest that in addition to inhibiting platelet aggregation, antithrombotic medications have shear-dependent effects, potentiating thrombus fragility and/or enhancing endogenous fibrinolysis. Such shear-dependent effects, potentiating the fragility of the growing thrombus and/or enhancing endogenous thrombolytic activity, likely contribute to the clinical effectiveness of such medications. It is not clear how much these effects relate to the measured inhibition of platelet aggregation in response to specific agonists. These effects are observable only with techniques that subject the growing thrombus to arterial flow and shear conditions. The effects of antithrombotic medications on thrombus stability and ways of assessing this are reviewed herein, and it is proposed that thrombus stability could become a new target for pharmacological intervention.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Hypofibrinolysis in diabetes: a therapeutic target for the reduction of cardiovascular risk

An enhanced thrombotic environment and premature atherosclerosis are key factors for the increased cardiovascular risk in diabetes. The occlusive vascular thrombus, formed secondary to interactions between platelets and coagulation proteins, is composed of a skeleton of fibrin fibres with cellular elements embedded in this network. Diabetes is characterised by quantitative and qualitative changes in coagulation proteins, which collectively increase resistance to fibrinolysis, consequently augmenting thrombosis risk. Current long-term therapies to prevent arterial occlusion in diabetes are focussed on anti-platelet agents, a strategy that fails to address the contribution of coagulation proteins to the enhanced thrombotic milieu. Moreover, antiplatelet treatment is associated with bleeding complications, particularly with newer agents and more aggressive combination therapies, questioning the safety of this approach. Therefore, to safely control thrombosis risk in diabetes, an alternative approach is required with the fibrin network representing a credible therapeutic target. In the current review, we address diabetes-specific mechanistic pathways responsible for hypofibrinolysis including the role of clot structure, defects in the fibrinolytic system and increased incorporation of anti-fibrinolytic proteins into the clot. Future anti-thrombotic therapeutic options are discussed with special emphasis on the potential advantages of modulating incorporation of the anti-fibrinolytic proteins into fibrin networks. This latter approach carries theoretical advantages, including specificity for diabetes, ability to target a particular protein with a possible favourable risk of bleeding. The development of alternative treatment strategies to better control residual thrombosis risk in diabetes will help to reduce vascular events, which remain the main cause of mortality in this condition

Resonances in a chaotic attractor crisis of the Lorenz Flow

Local bifurcations of stationary points and limit cycles have successfully been characterized in terms of the critical exponents of these solutions. Lyapunov exponents and their associated covariant Lyapunov vectors have been proposed as tools for supporting the understanding of critical transitions in chaotic dynamical systems. However, it is in general not clear how the statistical properties of dynamical systems change across a boundary crisis during which a chaotic attractor collides with a saddle. This behavior is investigated here for a boundary crisis in the Lorenz flow, for which neither the Lyapunov exponents nor the covariant Lyapunov vectors provide a criterion for the crisis. Instead, the convergence of the time evolution of probability densities to the invariant measure, governed by the semigroup of transfer operators, is expected to slow down at the approach of the crisis. Such convergence is described by the eigenvalues of the generator of this semigroup, which can be divided into two families, referred to as the stable and unstable Ruelle--Pollicott resonances, respectively. The former describes the convergence of densities to the attractor (or escape from a repeller) and is estimated from many short time series sampling the state space. The latter is responsible for the decay of correlations, or mixing, and can be estimated from a long times series, invoking ergodicity. It is found numerically for the Lorenz flow that the stable resonances do approach the imaginary axis during the crisis, as is indicative of the loss of global stability of the attractor. On the other hand, the unstable resonances, and a fortiori the decay of correlations, do not flag the proximity of the crisis, thus questioning the usual design of early warning indicators of boundary crises of chaotic attractors and the applicability of response theory close to such crises

Seminars may increase recruitment to randomised controlled trials: lessons learned from WISDOM

Background: Recruiting patients to large randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the primary care setting can be challenging. Research teams need to identify and utilise strategies that both maximise the efficiency of recruitment and minimise the burden on general practitioners. Purpose: To describe our methods for identifying, approaching and recruiting female patients aged 50–69 years to a long-term double-blind RCT of hormone therapy (HT) – the Women's International Study of long Duration Oestrogen after Menopause (WISDOM). The effectiveness of conducting group seminars with patients prior to one-to-one screening is discussed. Methods: Female patients aged between 50 and 69 years were sent letters from participating general practitioners in Adelaide inviting them to participate in WISDOM and attend an initial seminar providing information about HT and the trial prior to a screening interview with a trial nurse. Recruitment rates for those who did or did not attend group seminars were compared. Results: Women who attended a group seminar conducted by the research team were twice as likely to attend an initial screening visit and enrol to participate in WISDOM than women who did not attend a seminar (p < 0.001). In addition, it was estimated that the time required to randomise a woman in the trial, and the number and duration of telephone calls to screen out uninterested women, was reduced for the seminar group. Conclusion: Conducting group seminars with potential participants may be a useful strategy for maximising recruitment from general practice, by increasing patient information and reducing a research team's workload.Bronwen J. Paine, Nigel P. Stocks and Alastair H. MacLenna

Hand-held cell phone use while driving legislation and observed driver behavior among population sub-groups in the United States

Abstract Background Cell phone use behaviors are known to vary across demographic sub-groups and geographic locations. This study examined whether universal hand-held calling while driving bans were associated with lower road-side observed hand-held cell phone conversations across drivers of different ages (16–24, 25–59, ≥60 years), sexes, races (White, African American, or other), ruralities (suburban, rural, or urban), and regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). Methods Data from the 2008–2013 National Occupant Protection Use Survey were merged with states’ cell phone use while driving legislation. The exposure was presence of a universal hand-held cell phone ban at time of observation. Logistic regression was used to assess the odds of drivers having a hand-held cell phone conversation. Sub-groups differences were assessed using models with interaction terms. Results When universal hand-held cell phone bans were effective, hand-held cell phone conversations were lower across all driver demographic sub-groups and regions. Sub-group differences existed among the sexes (p-value, <0.0001) and regions (p-value, 0.0003). Compared to states without universal hand-held cell phone bans, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of a driver hand-held phone conversation was 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28, 0.41] for females versus 0.47 (CI 0.40, 0.55) for males and 0.31 (CI 0.25, 0.38) for drivers in Western states compared to 0.47 (CI 0.30, 0.72) in the Northeast and 0.50 (CI 0.38, 0.66) in the South. Conclusions The presence of universal hand-held cell phone bans were associated lower hand-held cell phone conversations across all driver sub-groups and regions. Hand-held phone conversations were particularly lower among female drivers and those from Western states when these bans were in effect. Public health interventions concerning hand-held cell phone use while driving could reasonably target all drivers

Effects of MASP-1 of the Complement System on Activation of Coagulation Factors and Plasma Clot Formation

BACKGROUND: Numerous interactions between the coagulation and complement systems have been shown. Recently, links between coagulation and mannan-binding lectin-associated serine protease-1 (MASP-1) of the complement lectin pathway have been proposed. Our aim was to investigate MASP-1 activation of factor XIII (FXIII), fibrinogen, prothrombin, and thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI) in plasma-based systems, and to analyse effects of MASP-1 on plasma clot formation, structure and lysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a FXIII incorporation assay and specific assays to measure the activation products prothrombin fragment F1+2, fibrinopeptide A (FPA), and activated TAFI (TAFIa). Clot formation and lysis were assessed by turbidimetric assay. Clot structure was studied by scanning electron microscopy. MASP-1 activated FXIII and, contrary to thrombin, induced FXIII activity faster in the Val34 than the Leu34 variant. MASP-1-dependent generation of F1+2, FPA and TAFIa showed a dose-dependent response in normal citrated plasma (NCP), albeit MASP-1 was much less efficient than FXa or thrombin. MASP-1 activation of prothrombin and TAFI cleavage were confirmed in purified systems. No FPA generation was observed in prothrombin-depleted plasma. MASP-1 induced clot formation in NCP, affected clot structure, and prolonged clot lysis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We show that MASP-1 interacts with plasma clot formation on different levels and influences fibrin structure. Although MASP-1-induced fibrin formation is thrombin-dependent, MASP-1 directly activates prothrombin, FXIII and TAFI. We suggest that MASP-1, in concerted action with other complement and coagulation proteins, may play a role in fibrin clot formation

On the Implications of a Sex Difference in the Reaction Times of Sprinters at the Beijing Olympics

Elite sprinters offer insights into the fastest whole body auditory reaction times. When, however, is a reaction so fast that it represents a false start? Currently, a false start is awarded if an athlete increases the force on their starting block above a given threshold before 100 ms has elapsed after the starting gun. To test the hypothesis that the fastest valid reaction times of sprinters really is 100 ms and that no sex difference exists in that time, we analyzed the fastest reaction times achieved by each of the 425 male and female sprinters who competed at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. After power transformation of the skewed data, a fixed effects ANOVA was used to analyze the effects of sex, race, round and lane position. The lower bounds of the 95, 99 and 99.9% confidence intervals were then calculated and back transformed. The mean fastest reaction time recorded by men was significantly faster than women (p<0.001). At the 99.9% confidence level, neither men nor women can react in 100 ms, but they can react in as little as 109 ms and 121 ms, respectively. However, that sex difference in reaction time is likely an artifact caused by using the same force threshold in women as men, and it permits a woman to false start by up to 21 ms without penalty. We estimate that female sprinters would have similar reaction times to male sprinters if the force threshold used at Beijing was lowered by 22% in order to account for their lesser muscle strength