Forecasting in the light of Big Data

Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view. This owes to the fact that forecasting lends itself to two equally radical, yet opposite methodologies. A reductionist one, based on the first principles, and the naive inductivist one, based only on data. This latter view has recently gained some attention in response to the availability of unprecedented amounts of data and increasingly sophisticated algorithmic analytic techniques. The purpose of this note is to assess critically the role of big data in reshaping the key aspects of forecasting and in particular the claim that bigger data leads to better predictions. Drawing on the representative example of weather forecasts we argue that this is not generally the case. We conclude by suggesting that a clever and context-dependent compromise between modelling and quantitative analysis stands out as the best forecasting strategy, as anticipated nearly a century ago by Richardson and von Neumann

Potentiation of thrombus instability: a contributory mechanism to the effectiveness of antithrombotic medications

© The Author(s) 2018The stability of an arterial thrombus, determined by its structure and ability to resist endogenous fibrinolysis, is a major determinant of the extent of infarction that results from coronary or cerebrovascular thrombosis. There is ample evidence from both laboratory and clinical studies to suggest that in addition to inhibiting platelet aggregation, antithrombotic medications have shear-dependent effects, potentiating thrombus fragility and/or enhancing endogenous fibrinolysis. Such shear-dependent effects, potentiating the fragility of the growing thrombus and/or enhancing endogenous thrombolytic activity, likely contribute to the clinical effectiveness of such medications. It is not clear how much these effects relate to the measured inhibition of platelet aggregation in response to specific agonists. These effects are observable only with techniques that subject the growing thrombus to arterial flow and shear conditions. The effects of antithrombotic medications on thrombus stability and ways of assessing this are reviewed herein, and it is proposed that thrombus stability could become a new target for pharmacological intervention.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

High platelet reactivity in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: Randomised controlled trial comparing prasugrel and clopidogrel

Background: Prasugrel is more effective than clopidogrel in reducing platelet aggregation in acute coronary syndromes. Data available on prasugrel reloading in clopidogrel treated patients with high residual platelet reactivity (HRPR) i.e. poor responders, is limited. Objectives: To determine the effects of prasugrel loading on platelet function in patients on clopidogrel and high platelet reactivity undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Patients: Patients with ACS on clopidogrel who were scheduled for PCI found to have a platelet reactivity ≥40 AUC with the Multiplate Analyzer, i.e. “poor responders” were randomised to prasugrel (60 mg loading and 10 mg maintenance dose) or clopidogrel (600 mg reloading and 150 mg maintenance dose). The primary outcome measure was proportion of patients with platelet reactivity <40 AUC 4 hours after loading with study medication, and also at one hour (secondary outcome). 44 patients were enrolled and the study was terminated early as clopidogrel use decreased sharply due to introduction of newer P2Y12 inhibitors. Results: At 4 hours after study medication 100% of patients treated with prasugrel compared to 91% of those treated with clopidogrel had platelet reactivity <40 AUC (p = 0.49), while at 1 hour the proportions were 95% and 64% respectively (p = 0.02). Mean platelet reactivity at 4 and 1 hours after study medication in prasugrel and clopidogrel groups respectively were 12 versus 22 (p = 0.005) and 19 versus 34 (p = 0.01) respectively. Conclusions: Routine platelet function testing identifies patients with high residual platelet reactivity (“poor responders”) on clopidogrel. A strategy of prasugrel rather than clopidogrel reloading results in earlier and more sustained suppression of platelet reactivity. Future trials need to identify if this translates into clinical benefit

Seminars may increase recruitment to randomised controlled trials: lessons learned from WISDOM

Background: Recruiting patients to large randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the primary care setting can be challenging. Research teams need to identify and utilise strategies that both maximise the efficiency of recruitment and minimise the burden on general practitioners. Purpose: To describe our methods for identifying, approaching and recruiting female patients aged 50–69 years to a long-term double-blind RCT of hormone therapy (HT) – the Women's International Study of long Duration Oestrogen after Menopause (WISDOM). The effectiveness of conducting group seminars with patients prior to one-to-one screening is discussed. Methods: Female patients aged between 50 and 69 years were sent letters from participating general practitioners in Adelaide inviting them to participate in WISDOM and attend an initial seminar providing information about HT and the trial prior to a screening interview with a trial nurse. Recruitment rates for those who did or did not attend group seminars were compared. Results: Women who attended a group seminar conducted by the research team were twice as likely to attend an initial screening visit and enrol to participate in WISDOM than women who did not attend a seminar (p &lt; 0.001). In addition, it was estimated that the time required to randomise a woman in the trial, and the number and duration of telephone calls to screen out uninterested women, was reduced for the seminar group. Conclusion: Conducting group seminars with potential participants may be a useful strategy for maximising recruitment from general practice, by increasing patient information and reducing a research team's workload.Bronwen J. Paine, Nigel P. Stocks and Alastair H. MacLenna

Effects of MASP-1 of the Complement System on Activation of Coagulation Factors and Plasma Clot Formation

BACKGROUND: Numerous interactions between the coagulation and complement systems have been shown. Recently, links between coagulation and mannan-binding lectin-associated serine protease-1 (MASP-1) of the complement lectin pathway have been proposed. Our aim was to investigate MASP-1 activation of factor XIII (FXIII), fibrinogen, prothrombin, and thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI) in plasma-based systems, and to analyse effects of MASP-1 on plasma clot formation, structure and lysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a FXIII incorporation assay and specific assays to measure the activation products prothrombin fragment F1+2, fibrinopeptide A (FPA), and activated TAFI (TAFIa). Clot formation and lysis were assessed by turbidimetric assay. Clot structure was studied by scanning electron microscopy. MASP-1 activated FXIII and, contrary to thrombin, induced FXIII activity faster in the Val34 than the Leu34 variant. MASP-1-dependent generation of F1+2, FPA and TAFIa showed a dose-dependent response in normal citrated plasma (NCP), albeit MASP-1 was much less efficient than FXa or thrombin. MASP-1 activation of prothrombin and TAFI cleavage were confirmed in purified systems. No FPA generation was observed in prothrombin-depleted plasma. MASP-1 induced clot formation in NCP, affected clot structure, and prolonged clot lysis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We show that MASP-1 interacts with plasma clot formation on different levels and influences fibrin structure. Although MASP-1-induced fibrin formation is thrombin-dependent, MASP-1 directly activates prothrombin, FXIII and TAFI. We suggest that MASP-1, in concerted action with other complement and coagulation proteins, may play a role in fibrin clot formation

On the Implications of a Sex Difference in the Reaction Times of Sprinters at the Beijing Olympics

Elite sprinters offer insights into the fastest whole body auditory reaction times. When, however, is a reaction so fast that it represents a false start? Currently, a false start is awarded if an athlete increases the force on their starting block above a given threshold before 100 ms has elapsed after the starting gun. To test the hypothesis that the fastest valid reaction times of sprinters really is 100 ms and that no sex difference exists in that time, we analyzed the fastest reaction times achieved by each of the 425 male and female sprinters who competed at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. After power transformation of the skewed data, a fixed effects ANOVA was used to analyze the effects of sex, race, round and lane position. The lower bounds of the 95, 99 and 99.9% confidence intervals were then calculated and back transformed. The mean fastest reaction time recorded by men was significantly faster than women (p<0.001). At the 99.9% confidence level, neither men nor women can react in 100 ms, but they can react in as little as 109 ms and 121 ms, respectively. However, that sex difference in reaction time is likely an artifact caused by using the same force threshold in women as men, and it permits a woman to false start by up to 21 ms without penalty. We estimate that female sprinters would have similar reaction times to male sprinters if the force threshold used at Beijing was lowered by 22% in order to account for their lesser muscle strength

Respiratory Paradoxical Adverse Drug Reactions Associated with Acetylcysteine and Carbocysteine Systemic Use in Paediatric Patients: A National Survey

OBJECTIVE: To report pediatric cases of paradoxical respiratory adverse drug reactions (ADRs) after exposure to oral mucolytic drugs (carbocysteine, acetylcysteine) that led to the withdrawal of licenses for these drugs for infants in France and then Italy. DESIGN: The study followed the recommendations of the European guidelines of pharmacovigilance for medicines used in the paediatric population. SETTING: Cases voluntarily reported by physicians from 1989 to 2008 were identified in the national French pharmacovigilance public database and in drug company databases. PATIENTS: The definition of paradoxical respiratory ADRs was based on the literature. Exposure to mucolytic drugs was arbitrarily defined as having received mucolytic drugs for at least 2 days (>200 mg) and at least until the day before the first signs of the suspected ADR. RESULTS: The non-exclusive paradoxical respiratory ADRs reported in 59 paediatric patients (median age 5 months, range 3 weeks to 34 months, 98% younger than 2 years old) were increased bronchorrhea or mucus vomiting (n = 27), worsening of respiratory distress during respiratory tract infection (n = 35), dyspnoea (n = 18), cough aggravation or prolongation (n = 11), and bronchospasm (n = 1). Fifty-one (86%) children required hospitalization or extended hospitalization because of the ADR; one patient died of pulmonary oedema after mucus vomiting. CONCLUSION: Parents, physicians, pharmacists, and drug regulatory agencies should know that the benefit risk ratio of mucolytic drugs is at least null and most probably negative in infants according to available evidence