Climate change and health in Earth's future

Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these “tertiary effects” have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people’s ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also “risk multipliers” for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it

Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world

BACKGROUND: Concern intensifying that emerging infectious diseases and global environmental changes that could generate major future human pandemics. METHOD: A focused literature review was undertaken, partly informed by a forthcoming report on environment, agriculture and infectious diseases of poverty, facilitated by the Special Programme for Tropical Diseases. RESULTS: More than ten categories of infectious disease emergence exist, but none formally analyse past, current or future burden of disease. Other evidence suggests that the dominant public health concern focuses on two informal groupings. Most important is the perceived threat of newly recognised infections, especially viruses that arise or are newly discovered in developing countries that originate in species exotic to developed countries, such as non-human primates, bats and rodents. These pathogens may be transmitted by insects or bats, or via direct human contact with bushmeat. The second group is new strains of influenza arising from intensively farmed chickens or pigs, or emerging from Asian “wet markets” where several bird species have close contact. Both forms appear justified because of two great pandemics: HIV/AIDS (which appears to have originated from bushmeat hunting in Africa before emerging globally) and Spanish influenza, which killed up to 2.5% of the human population around the end of World War I. Insufficiently appreciated is the contribution of the milieu which appeared to facilitate the high disease burden in these pandemics. Additionally, excess anxiety over emerging infectious diseases diverts attention from issues of greater public health importance, especially: (i) existing (including neglected) infectious diseases and (ii) the changing milieu that is eroding the determinants of immunity and public health, caused by adverse global environmental changes, including climate change and other components of stressed life and civilisation-supporting systems. CONCLUSIONS: The focus on novel pathogens and minor forms of anti-microbial resistance in emerging disease literature is unjustified by their burden of disease, actual and potential, and diverts attention from far more important health problems and determinants. There is insufficient understanding of systemic factors that promote pandemics. Adverse global change could generate circumstances conducive to future pandemics with a high burden of disease, arising via anti-microbial and insecticidal resistance, under-nutrition, conflict, and public health breakdown

Climate change and global health: a new conceptual framework

Abstract Climate change's burden of disease seems orders of magnitude too low to justify claims that it is this century's greatest threat to health. However, such claims can be more easily understood by considering how climate change acts as a risk multiplier, compounding pre-existing socially and politically-mediated drivers of adverse health consequences including conflict

A NASA/RAE cooperation in the development of a real-time knowledge-based autopilot

As part of a US/UK cooperative aeronautical research program, a joint activity between the NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility and the Royal Aerospace Establishment on knowledge-based systems was established. This joint activity is concerned with tools and techniques for the implementation and validation of real-time knowledge-based systems. The proposed next stage of this research is described, in which some of the problems of implementing and validating a knowledge-based autopilot for a generic high-performance aircraft are investigated

Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970–2007

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change

Human Carrying Capacity and Human Health

The issue of overpopulation has fallen out of favor among most contemporary demographers, economists, and epidemiologists. Discussing population control has become taboo. This taboo could be hazardous to public healt

The Routine Use of Antibiotics to Promote Animal Growth Does Little to Benefit Protein Undernutrition in the Developing World

Some persons argue that the routine addition of antibiotics to animal feed will help alleviate protein undernutrition in developing countries by increasing meat production. In contrast, we estimate that, if all routine antibiotic use in animal feed were ceased, there would be negligible effects in these countries. Poultry and pork production are unlikely to decrease by more than 2%. Average daily protein supply would decrease by no more than 0.1 g per person (or 0.2% of total protein intake). Eliminating the routine use of in-feed antibiotics will improve human and animal health, by reducing the development and spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteri

Time to Regenerate: Ecosystems and Health Promotion

Butler and Friel call upon the health promotion community to strongly reengage with environmental and ecological issues

SDG 3: Good health and well-being - framing targets to maximise co-benefits for forests and people

Key Points: The achievement of SDG 3 depends on many other SDGs; some SDGs are logically inconsistent, especially in the attempt to increase conventionally defined GDP while preserving natural capital. Any short-term gains for human health from further forest conversion (e.g. food production) creates short- and long-term, direct and indirect health risks for humans, as well as for other biota. Failure to ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services (including family planning) will increase pressure on forests at local, regional and global scales. The burning and clearing of forests cause significant harm to health via impaired quality of water, soil and air; increased exposure to infectious diseases and impacts climate regulation. Many infectious diseases are associated with forest disturbances and intrusions; some important infectious diseases have emerged from forests (notably HIV/AIDS). Greater exposure to green space, including forests, provides mental and physical health benefits for the growing global urban population

Vaccine effectiveness of live attenuated and trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination in 2010/11 to 2015/16:the SIVE II record linkage study

Background: There is good evidence of vaccine effectiveness in healthy individuals but less robust evidence for vaccine effectiveness in the populations targeted for influenza vaccination. The live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has recently been recommended for children in the UK. The trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) is recommended for all people aged≥65 years and for those aged<65 years who are at an increased risk of complications from influenza infection (e.g. people with asthma). Objective: To examine the vaccine effectiveness of LAIV and TIV. Design: Cohort study and test-negative designs to estimate vaccine effectiveness. A self-case series study to ascertain adverse events associated with vaccination. Setting: A national linkage of patient-level general practice (GP) data from 230 Scottish GPs to the Scottish Immunisation & Recall Service, Health Protection Scotland virology database, admissions to Scottish hospitals and the Scottish death register. Participants: A total of 1,250,000 people. Interventions: LAIV for 2- to 11-year-olds and TIV for older people (aged≥65 years) and those aged<65 years who are at risk of diseases, from 2010/11 to 2015/16. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measures include vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), influenza-related morbidity and mortality, and adverse events associated with vaccination. Results: Two-fifths (40%) of preschool-aged children and three-fifths (60%) of primary school-aged children registered in study practices were vaccinated. Uptake varied among groups [e.g. most affluent vs. most deprived in 2- to 4-year-olds, odds ratio 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.70 to 1.82]. LAIV-adjusted vaccine effectiveness among children (aged 2-11 years) for preventing RT-PCR laboratoryconfirmed influenza was 21% (95% CI -19% to 47%) in 2014/15 and 58% (95% CI 39% to 71%) in 2015/16. No significant adverse events were associated with LAIV. Among at-risk 18- to 64-year-olds, significant trivalent influenza vaccine effectiveness was found for four of the six seasons, with the highest vaccine effectiveness in 2010/11 (53%, 95% CI 21% to 72%). The seasons with non-significant vaccine effectiveness had low levels of circulating influenza virus (2011/12, 5%; 2013/14, 9%). Among those people aged≥65 years, TIV effectiveness was positive in all six seasons, but in only one of the six seasons (2013/14) was significance achieved (57%, 95% CI 20% to 76%). Conclusions: The study found that LAIV was safe and effective in decreasing RT-PCR-confirmed influenza in children. TIV was safe and significantly effective in most seasons for 18- to 64-year-olds, with positive vaccine effectiveness in most seasons for those people aged≥65 years (although this was significant in only one season). Future work: The UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has recommended the use of adjuvanted injectable vaccine for those people aged≥65 years from season 2018/19 onwards. A future study will be required to evaluate this vaccine. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN88072400