Self-fulfilling debt crises

We characterize the values of government debt and the debt's maturity structure under which financial crises brought on by a loss of confidence in the government can arise within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model. We also characterize the optimal policy response of the government to the threat of such a crisis. We show that when the country's fundamentals place it inside the crisis zone, the government is motivated to reduce its debt and exit the crisis zone because this leads to an economic boom and a reduction in the interest rate on the government's debt. We show that this reduction may be quite gradual if debt is high or the probability of a crisis is low. We also show that, while lengthening the maturity of the debt can shrink the crisis zone, credibility-inducing policies can have perverse effects.Debt

Multiple mRNA isoforms of the transcription activator protein CREB

We have characterized cDNA clones representing mouse CREB (cyclic AMP responsive element binding protein) mRNA isoforms. These include CREBA and CREBa, of which the rat and human homologues have been previously identified. Both encode proteins with CREbinding activity and identical transactivation potential. The additional CREB mRNA isoforms potentially encode CREB related proteins. From the structural organization of the mouse CREB gene we conclude that the multiple transcripts are generated by alternative splicing. Furthermore we show that specific CREB mRNA isoforms are expressed at a high level in the adult testis. Expression of these isoforms is induced after commencement of spermatogenesis. In situ hybridization suggests that this expression occurs predominantly in the primary spermatocytes. Comparison of the CREB gene with the recently isolated CREM (cAMP responsive element modulator) cDNAs illustrates that the two genes have arisen by gene duplication and have diverged to encode transcriptional activators and repressors of the cAMP signal transduction pathway

Workset Creation for Scholarly Analysis: Recommendations and Prototyping Project Reports

This document assembles and describes the outcomes of the four prototyping projects undertaken as part of the Workset Creation for Scholarly Analysis (WCSA) research project (2013 – 2015). Each prototyping project team provided its own final report. These reports are assembled together and included in this document. Based on the totality of results reported, the WCSA project team also provide a set of overarching recommendations for HTRC implementation and adoption of research conducted by the Prototyping Project teams. The work described here was made possible through the generous support of The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation (Grant Ref # 21300666).The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation (Grant Ref # 21300666)Ope

A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis

This paper explores the extent to which the Mexican government's inability to roll over its debt during December 1994 and January 1995 can be modeled as a self-fulfilling debt crisis. In the model there is a crucial interval of debt for which the government, although it finds it optimal to repay old debt if it can sell new debt, finds it optimal to default if it cannot sell new debt. If government debt is in this interval, which we call the crisis zone, then we can construct equilibria in which a crisis can occur stochastically, depending on the realization of a sunspot variable. The size of this zone depends on the average length of maturity of government debt. Our analysis suggests that for a country, like Mexico, with a very short maturity structure of debt, the crisis zone is large and includes levels of debt as low as that in Mexico before the crisis.Financial crises - Mexico ; Debts, External ; Mexico

Paul as Jesus: Luke's use of recursion in Luke-Acts

My thesis argues that through the literary technique of recursion, the key stories and major characters in the depiction of Paul in Acts 9-28 were strategically arranged by the author to parallel the key stories and major characters in the portrait of Jesus in the Third Gospel. Recursion is a literary device that has wide currency in the Hebrew Bible, is common to the Hellenistic literature of the day, and is part and parcel of Luke’s literary strategy. The narrative technique of recursion is the author’s conscious shaping of narrative events so that key elements of one narrative are repeated with variation in others. We argue that Luke concentrates on Paul in Acts 9-28 because to some Jewish and Gentile readers, his apostleship was suspect, handicapped by an unknown association with Jesus, an adversary of Jesus, persecuting and attempting to wipe out the church. As part of his larger strategy to sanction Paul, the author shapes selected narrative portions of Acts 1-12 so that the depiction of Peter, the Jerusalem apostle par excellence, well established in the minds of readers, is aligned by recursion to remind readers of his association with Jesus in the Third Gospel. If Jesus raises the dead, heals a man lame from his mother’s womb, and gives the Holy Spirit, so does Peter. Having reaffirmed Peter’s connection to the founder, Jesus, Luke begins in Acts 9 with an extended series of recursions that show Paul as an apostle on par with Peter, performing the same miracles, paving the way to show that Paul is a legitimate apostle to the Gentiles. The major characters and key events of Paul’s ministry to the Gentiles are aligned by recursion to remind readers of the major characters and key events of Jesus’ ministry in the Third Gospel. If there was a Joseph, a key figure in Jesus’ early life, there was also a Joseph in Paul’s early ministry. If Jesus experienced a major event like Gethsemane, so did Paul. As the Acts narrative unfolds, readers are made increasingly aware of Luke’s co-occurring arguments: the pattern of Paul’s apostolic ministry to the Gentiles is a recursion of Peter’s apostolic ministry to the Jews, and the extended depiction of Paul is a recursion of the portrait of Jesus in the Third Gospel. Presented with this comprehensive and compelling series of strategically arranged recursions, validating Paul’s equality with Peter, and repeated imitation of Jesus, Luke’s readers could overcome suspicion about Paul and become certain that he was equal to Peter, a true apostle of Jesus, who guarantees the authenticity and continuity of the Christian proclamation. Luke’s legitimizing of Paul via recursion, then, is one key to understanding the content of Acts 9-28

A surface water flooding impact library for flood risk assessment

The growing demand for improved risk-based Surface Water Flooding (SWF) warning systems is evident in EU directives and in the UK Government’s Pitt Review of the 2007 summer floods. This paper presents a novel approach for collating receptor and vulnerability datasets via the concept of an Impact Library, developed by the Health and Safety Laboratory as a depository of pre-calculated impact information on SWF risk for use in a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model (HIM). This has potential benefits for the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) as the organisation responsible for the issuing of flood guidance information for England and Wales. The SWF HIM takes a pixel-based approach to link probabilistic surface water runoff forecasts produced by CEH’s Grid-to-Grid hydrological model with Impact Library information to generate impact assessments. These are combined to estimate flood risk as a combination of impact severity and forecast likelihood, at 1km pixel level, and summarised for counties and local authorities. The SWF HIM takes advantage of recent advances in operational ensemble forecasting of rainfall by the Met Office and of SWF by the Environment Agency and CEH working together through the FFC. Results are presented for a case study event which affected the North East of England during 2012. The work has been developed through the UK’s Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP), a group of organisations gathered to provide information, research and analysis on natural hazards for civil contingencies, government and responders across the UK

Investigation of the response of high-bandwidth MOX sensors to gas plumes for application on a mobile robot in hazardous environments

A custom sensor module has been developed comprising high-bandwidth metal oxide (MOX), low-cost non-dispersive infra-red (NDIR) and miniature solidly mounted resonator (SMR) acoustic sensors for use on a mobile exploration robot. The module has been tested in a wind tunnel in order to evaluate the performance of three MOX sensors (with coatings of PdPt SnO2, WO3 and NiO) to plumes of 2-propanol (concentration < 2.5 ppm). The formation of the VOC (volatile organic compound) plumes was verified through mapping of sensor responses across a grid of 9 positions in the wind tunnel. Fluctuating sensor responses were observed (±5%), demonstrating variation of VOC concentration within the gas plumes. Higher sensor responses were demonstrated with the n-type SnO2 and WO3 based devices (80% and 40% change relative to baseline, respectively) compared to the p-type NiO device (10%). Short plumes of VOC demonstrated the effect of gas pulse broadening, where longer duration responses (10% greater) were observed at locations further from the VOC source (∼0.4 m distance variation tested). Finally, the module was tested in a real-world environment, where plumes of VOC were observed using the MOX sensors and verified using a commercial Photoionization Detector (PID)

Whole-genome sequencing shows that patient-to-patient transmission rarely accounts for acquisition of Staphylococcus aureus in an intensive care unit

BACKGROUND  Strategies to prevent Staphylococcus aureus infection in hospitals focus on patient-to-patient transmission. We used whole-genome sequencing to investigate the role of colonized patients as the source of new S. aureus acquisitions, and the reliability of identifying patient-to-patient transmission using the conventional approach of spa typing and overlapping patient stay. METHODS Over 14 months, all unselected patients admitted to an adult intensive care unit (ICU) were serially screened for S. aureus. All available isolates (n = 275) were spa typed and underwent whole-genome sequencing to investigate their relatedness at high resolution. RESULTS Staphylococcus aureus was carried by 185 of 1109 patients sampled within 24 hours of ICU admission (16.7%); 59 (5.3%) patients carried methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). Forty-four S. aureus (22 MRSA) acquisitions while on ICU were detected. Isolates were available for genetic analysis from 37 acquisitions. Whole-genome sequencing indicated that 7 of these 37 (18.9%) were transmissions from other colonized patients. Conventional methods (spa typing combined with overlapping patient stay) falsely identified 3 patient-to-patient transmissions (all MRSA) and failed to detect 2 acquisitions and 4 transmissions (2 MRSA). CONCLUSIONS Only a minority of S. aureus acquisitions can be explained by patient-to-patient transmission. Whole-genome sequencing provides the resolution to disprove transmission events indicated by conventional methods and also to reveal otherwise unsuspected transmission events. Whole-genome sequencing should replace conventional methods for detection of nosocomial S. aureus transmission