Modelling CPV

A methodology for the simulation of CPV systems is presented in four distinct sections: input, optics, uncertainty and electrical output. In the input section, existing methods of describing the solar irradiation that is incident at the primary optical element of a CPV system are discussed, the inadequacies of the existing methods are explored and conditions of validity for their use drawn. An improved and spectrally extended model for a variable, spatially resolved solar image is arrived at. The model is used to analyse losses at the primary concentration device stage under varying solar profiles and air masses. A contextual analysis of an example Seattle based CPV system operating with constant solar tracking errors of 0.3-0.4° show a corresponding loss in isolation available to the optical system of 5-20%, respectively. In the optics section, an optical ray trace model is developed specifically for this work. The optical ray trace model is capable of the spectrally resolved ray tracing of all insolation input models discussed above. Plano-convex and Fresnel lenses are designed, investigated and compared using each of the insolation models described in the input section. Common CPV component material samples for the plano-convex and Fresnel lenses are analysed for their spectrally resolved optical properties. The computational expense of high resolution spatial and spectral modelling is addressed by means of a spectrally weighted banding method. The optical properties parameter spectral weighting method can be applied to any arbitrary spectral band. The bands used herein correspond to the active ranges of a typical triple-junction solar cell. Each band shows a different spectral dependency. Banded beam irradiation proportions are shown to change by as much as 10% in absolute terms within the air mass range of 1 to 3. Significant variations in spectrally banded illumination profiles are found with the extended light source insolation model. These banded variations are mostly unaccounted for with the use of approximated insolation models, further compounding the argument for extended light source Sun models in CPV system simulations. In the uncertainty section, the limitations of the manufacturing process are explored. Manufacturing tolerance errors from manufacturer datasheets are presented. These production uncertainties are used in the design of an erroneous plano-convex lens which is then analysed with the optical modelled presented in the optics section and compared to the ideal design specification. A 15% variation in maximum intensity value is found alongside a linear shift in the focal crossover point of approximately 0.2mm, although the optical efficiency of the lens remains the same. Framing manufacture errors are investigated for a square Fresnel lens system resulting in a linear shift of the focal centre of approximately 0.85mm. A process for the calculation of wind loading force on a CPV array is also presented. The process uses real 2 second resolution wind data and highlights the chaotic nature of loading force. A maximum force of 1.4kN was found on an example day for a 3m by 3m by 0.1m cuboid (i.e. CPV array); corresponding to a wind speed of approximately 13m/s, which is well within the typical operating range of a CPV tracking system. In the electrical output section, a spatially resolved solar cell model is identified and used for the investigation of solar cell performance under the inhomogeneous cell illumination profiles produced in the uncertainty section. Significant differences in the maximum power point of the cell IVs are found for the ideal and erroneous system illumination profiles. Approximately, a 15% variation is found in the plano-convex lens example, with a relative difference of 4% attributable to illumination profile distortion, and a 6% variation in the module framing component example. These results further highlight the need for the consideration of production uncertainties in CPV system simulation

Modelling the efficiency of terrestrial photovoltaic systems

A computer simulation capable of investigating the interrelationship of module packing densities and module inclination angles and their effects on overall energy yield for a given PV system installation area is presented. It is demonstrated that the simulation is a useful tool in the optimization of proposed system designs, the analysis of electrical performance and, moreover, the prediction of the occurrence of degenerative system effects such as hot-spots. In one case, it is shown that increasing the system height to module spacing ratio from 0.18 to 0.24 results in potentially severe shading effects. Results for Seville (Spain) and Loughborough (UK) are compared. The potential pros and cons of tracking systems are demonstrated, in that elevation only tracking results in an annual irradiance harvest reduction of 0.4% in Loughborough and increase of 3.4% in Seville. Varying module inclination angles shows how significant irradiance losses can occur when static PV arrays are not optimally mounted, reducing the inclination from 40 degrees to zero results in an annual irradiance harvest reduction of ~20% in Seville and ~14% in Loughborough

Modelling solar flux distributions for fresnel lens CPV systems

A computer model for the simulation of solar flux distribution in the direct and circumsolar regions of the beam irradiation has been created. The model incorporates previous research into circumsolar ratios (CSRs) [1,2]. It is used to demonstrate the importance of realistic solar flux distributions as source inputs in Concentrator Photovoltaic (CPV) simulations. It is shown that the distribution of flux for different circumsolar ratios varies significantly. Such variation will have a considerable effect on the optical image formed at the receiver of a solar concentration system and thus is a necessary consideration in CPV modelling. Flux distributions incident on lenses of various entry apertures are generated and used to investigate the losses in incident flux resulting from tracking errors and CSR variation. It is found that, for a concentrating system with an entry aperture of 0.25°, a 20% loss of net annual incident energy is found with a tracking error of ~0.1°. The same loss is found with tracking errors of ~0.3°, 0.6° and 0.85° with apertures of 0.5°, 0.75° and 1°, respectively

Electrical stimulation treatment for facial palsy after revision pleomorphic adenoma surgery.

Surgery for pleomorphic adenoma recurrence presents a significant risk of facial nerve damage that can result in facial weakness effecting patients' ability to communicate, mental health and self-image. We report two case studies that had marked facial weakness after resection of recurrent pleomorphic adenoma and their progress with electrical stimulation. Subjects received electrical stimulation twice daily for 24 weeks during which photographs of expressions, facial measurements and Sunnybrook scores were recorded. Both subjects recovered good facial function demonstrating Sunnybrook scores of 54 and 64 that improved to 88 and 96, respectively. Neither subjects demonstrated adverse effects of treatment. We conclude that electrical stimulation is a safe treatment and may improve facial palsy in patients after resection of recurrent pleomorphic adenoma. Larger studies would be difficult to pursue due to the low incidence of cases

A fast and effective approach to modelling solar energy potential in complex environments

A fast and effective approach to modelling solar energy potential in complex environment

Estimating rooftop capacity for PV: Are we asking the right question?

Precise estimation of solar energy potential on pitched roofs is crucial for modelling photovoltaic (PV) installation scenarios. However, there is no national database of building characteristics in the UK. This paper begins by reviewing and testing a range of existing techniques for identifying roof characteristics. These all attempt to estimate roof area with varying degrees of accuracy. Rather than attempting to achieve this, a method is developed which assesses each roof to discover whether it is suitable for PV installation. That is, its properties should allow the installation of at least a minimum size photovoltaic system. This contribution provides a tool to assess PV potential on city-wide scales. It develops a pixel-based approach to estimation of solar energy potential over pitched roofs. This is achieved by a combination of publicly available building outline maps and LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. These are analysed by using a simple statistical technique within a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) environment. The accuracy of the new method is known, following validation against a large housing database. The method is mathematically simple. It is suitable for estimating rooftop capacity of mixed housing type developments

Sensitivity analyses for effect modifiers not observed in the target population when generalizing treatment effects from a randomized controlled trial: Assumptions, models, effect scales, data scenarios, and implementation details

Background: Randomized controlled trials are often used to inform policy and practice for broad populations. The average treatment effect (ATE) for a target population, however, may be different from the ATE observed in a trial if there are effect modifiers whose distribution in the target population is different that from that in the trial. Methods exist to use trial data to estimate the target population ATE, provided the distributions of treatment effect modifiers are observed in both the trial and target population -- an assumption that may not hold in practice. Methods: The proposed sensitivity analyses address the situation where a treatment effect modifier is observed in the trial but not the target population. These methods are based on an outcome model or the combination of such a model and weighting adjustment for observed differences between the trial sample and target population. They accommodate several types of outcome models: linear models (including single time outcome and pre- and post-treatment outcomes) for additive effects, and models with log or logit link for multiplicative effects. We clarify the methods' assumptions and provide detailed implementation instructions. Illustration: We illustrate the methods using an example generalizing the effects of an HIV treatment regimen from a randomized trial to a relevant target population. Conclusion: These methods allow researchers and decision-makers to have more appropriate confidence when drawing conclusions about target population effects

Pregnancy and Virologic Response to Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

Although women of reproductive age are the largest group of HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about the impact of pregnancy on response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in that setting. We examined the effect of incident pregnancy after HAART initiation on virologic response to HAART.We evaluated a prospective clinical cohort of adult women who initiated HAART in Johannesburg, South Africa between 1 April 2004 and 30 September 2009, and followed up until an event, death, transfer, drop-out, or administrative end of follow-up on 31 March 2010. Women over age 45 and women who were pregnant at HAART initiation were excluded from the study; final sample size for analysis was 5,494 women. Main exposure was incident pregnancy, experienced by 541 women; main outcome was virologic failure, defined as a failure to suppress virus to ≤ 400 copies/ml by six months or virologic rebound >400 copies/ml thereafter. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios using marginal structural Cox proportional hazards models and weighted lifetable analysis to calculate adjusted five-year risk differences. The weighted hazard ratio for the effect of pregnancy on time to virologic failure was 1.34 (95% confidence limit [CL] 1.02, 1.78). Sensitivity analyses generally confirmed these main results.Incident pregnancy after HAART initiation was associated with modest increases in both relative and absolute risks of virologic failure, although uncontrolled confounding cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, these results reinforce that family planning is an essential part of care for HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa. More work is needed to confirm these findings and to explore specific etiologic pathways by which such effects may operate

A GIS-based method for identification of wide area rooftop suitability for minimum size PV systems using LiDAR data and photogrammetry

Knowledge of roof geometry and physical features is essential for evaluation of the impact of multiple rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) system installations on local electricity networks. The paper starts by listing current methods used and stating their strengths and weaknesses. No current method is capable of delivering accurate results with publicly available input data. Hence a different approach is developed, based on slope and aspect using aircraft-based Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data, building footprint data, GIS (Geographical Information Systems) tools, and aerial photographs. It assesses each roof’s suitability for PV deployment. That is, the characteristics of each roof are examined for fitting of at least a minimum size solar power system. In this way the minimum potential solar yield for region or city may be obtained. Accuracy is determined by ground-truthing against a database of 886 household systems. This is the largest validation of a rooftop assessment method to date. The method is flexible with few prior assumptions. It can generate data for various PV scenarios and future analyses

Detection of roof shading for PV based on LiDAR data using a multi-modal approach

There is a current drive to increase rooftop deployment of PV. Suitable roofs need to be located, especially as regards shading. A shadow cast on one small section of a solar panel can disproportionately undermine output of the entire system. Nevertheless, few shading figures are available to researchers and developers. This paper reviews and categorizes a number of methods of determining shade losses on photovoltaic systems. Two existing methods are tested on case study areas: shadow simulation from buildings and ambient occlusion. The first is conceptually simple and was found to be useful where data is limited. The second is slightly more demanding in terms of data input and mathematical models. It produces attractive shadow maps but is intended for speed and represents an approximation to ray-tracing. Accordingly, a new model was developed which is fast, flexible and accurately models solar radiation