Impact of health system governance on healthcare quality in low-income and middle-income countries: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION: Improving healthcare quality in low-/middle-income countries (LMICs) is a critical step in the pathway to Universal Health Coverage and health-related sustainable development goals. This study aimed to map the available evidence on the impacts of health system governance interventions on the quality of healthcare services in LMICs. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of the literature. The search strategy used a combination of keywords and phrases relevant to health system governance, quality of healthcare and LMICs. Studies published in English until August 2023, with no start date limitation, were searched on PubMed, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar and ProQuest. Additional publications were identified by snowballing. The effects reported by the studies on processes of care and quality impacts were reviewed. RESULTS: The findings from 201 primary studies were grouped under (1) leadership, (2) system design, (3) accountability and transparency, (4) financing, (5) private sector partnerships, (6) information and monitoring; (7) participation and engagement and (8) regulation. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a stronger evidence base linking improved quality of care with health financing, private sector partnerships and community participation and engagement strategies. The evidence related to leadership, system design, information and monitoring, and accountability and transparency is limited

Community perceptions matter: a mixed-methods study using local knowledge to define features of success for a community intervention to improve quality of care for children under-5 in Jigawa, Nigeria

Objectives In this study, we used the information generated by community members during an intervention design process to understand the features needed for a successful community participatory intervention to improve child health. Design We conducted a concurrent mixed-methods study (November 2019–March 2020) to inform the design and evaluation of a community–facility linkage participatory intervention. Setting Kiyawa Local Government Area (Jigawa State, Nigeria)—population of 230 000 (n=425 villages). Participants Qualitative data included 12 community conversations with caregivers of children under-5 (men, older and younger women; n=9 per group), 3 focus group discussions (n=10) with ward development committee members and interviews with facility heads (n=3). Quantitative data comprised household surveys (n=3464) with compound heads (n=1803) and women (n=1661). Results We analysed qualitative data with thematic network analysis and the surveys with linear regression—results were triangulated in the interpretation phase. Participants identified the following areas of focus: community health education; facility infrastructure, equipment and staff improvements; raising funds to make these changes. Community involvement, cooperation and empowerment were recognised as a strategy to improve child health, and the presence of intermediate bodies (development committees) was deemed important to improve communication and solve problems between community and facility members. The survey showed functional community relations’ dynamics, with high levels of internal cohesion (78%), efficacy in solving problems together (79%) and fairness of the local leaders (82%). Conclusions Combining the results from this study and critical theories on successful participation identified community-informed features for a contextually tailored community–facility link intervention. The need to promote a more inclusive approach to future child health interventions was highlighted. In addition to health education campaigns, the relationship between community and healthcare providers needs strengthening, and development committees were identified as an essential feature for successfully linking communities and facilities for child health. Trial registration number ISRCTN39213655

Potential impact of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission in Malawi : a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mitigation strategies have been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings due to the potential for widespread disruption to social and economic well-being. Here we predict the clinical severity of COVID-19 in Malawi, quantifying the potential impact of intervention strategies and increases in health system capacity. METHODS: The infection fatality ratios (IFR) were predicted by adjusting reported IFR for China, accounting for demography, the current prevalence of comorbidities and health system capacity. These estimates were input into an age-structured deterministic model, which simulated the epidemic trajectory with non-pharmaceutical interventions and increases in health system capacity. FINDINGS: The predicted population-level IFR in Malawi, adjusted for age and comorbidity prevalence, is lower than that estimated for China (0.26%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.12%-0.69%, compared with 0.60%, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.3% in China); however, the health system constraints increase the predicted IFR to 0.83%, 95% UI 0.49%-1.39%. The interventions implemented in January 2021 could potentially avert 54 400 deaths (95% UI 26 900-97 300) over the course of the epidemic compared with an unmitigated outbreak. Enhanced shielding of people aged ≥60 years could avert 40 200 further deaths (95% UI 25 300-69 700) and halve intensive care unit admissions at the peak of the outbreak. A novel therapeutic agent which reduces mortality by 0.65 and 0.8 for severe and critical cases, respectively, in combination with increasing hospital capacity, could reduce projected mortality to 2.5 deaths per 1000 population (95% UI 1.9-3.6). CONCLUSION: We find the interventions currently used in Malawi are unlikely to effectively prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission but will have a significant impact on mortality. Increases in health system capacity and the introduction of novel therapeutics are likely to further reduce the projected numbers of deaths

Programme evaluation of population and system level policies : evidence for decision-making

Introduction Policy evaluations often focus on ex-post estimation of causal effects on short-term surrogate outcomes. The value of such information is limited for decision-making as the failure to reflect policy-relevant outcomes and disregard for opportunity costs prohibits the assessment of value for money. Further, these evaluations do not always consider all relevant evidence, other courses of action and the decision uncertainty. Methods In this paper, we explore how policy evaluation could better meet the needs of decision-making. We begin by defining the evidence required to inform decision making. We then conduct a literature review of challenges in evaluating policies. Finally, we highlight potential methods available to help address these challenges. Results The evidence required to inform decision-making includes the impacts on the policy-relevant outcomes, the costs and associated opportunity costs, and the consequences of uncertainty. Challenges in evaluating health policies are described using 8 categories: i) valuation space, ii) comparators, iii) time of evaluation, iv) mechanisms of action, v) effects, vi) resources, constraints and opportunity costs, vii) fidelity, adaptation and level of implementation, and viii) generalisability and external validity. Methods from a broad set of disciplines are available to improve policy evaluation, relating to causal inference, decision-analytic modelling, theory of change, realist evaluation and structured expert elicitation. Limitations The targeted review may not identify all possible challenges and the methods covered are not exhaustive. Conclusions Evaluations should provide appropriate evidence to inform decision making. There are challenges in evaluating policies but methods from multiple disciplines are available to address these challenges. Implications Evaluators need to carefully consider the decision being informed, the necessary evidence to inform it and the appropriate methods

Socio-demographic factors associated with early antenatal care visits among pregnant women in Malawi : 2004-2016

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, the WHO published recommendations increasing the number of recommended antenatal care (ANC) visits per pregnancy from four to eight. Prior to the implementation of this policy, coverage of four ANC visits has been suboptimal in many low-income settings. In this study we explore socio-demographic factors associated with early initiation of first ANC contact and attending at least four ANC visits ("ANC4+") in Malawi using the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) data collected between 2004 and 2016, prior to the implementation of new recommendations. METHODS: We combined data from the 2004-5, 2010 and 2015-16 MDHS using Stata version 16. Participants included all women surveyed between the ages of 15-49 who had given birth in the five years preceding the survey. We conducted weighted univariate, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis of the effects of each of the predictor variables on the binary endpoint of the woman attending at least four ANC visits and having the first ANC attendance within or before the four months of pregnancy (ANC4+). To determine whether a factor was included in the model, the likelihood ratio test was used with a statistical significance of P< 0.05 as the threshold. RESULTS: We evaluated data collected in surveys in 2004/5, 2010 and 2015/6 from 26386 women who had given birth in the five years before being surveyed. The median gestational age, in months, at the time of presenting for the first ANC visit was 5 (inter quartile range: 4-6). The proportion of women initiating ANC4+ increased from 21.3% in 2004-5 to 38.8% in 2015-16. From multivariate analysis, there was increasing trend in ANC4+ from women aged 20-24 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.27, 95%CI:1.05-1.53, P = 0.01) to women aged 45-49 years (aOR = 1.91, 95%CI:1.18-3.09, P = 0.008) compared to those aged 15-19 years. Women from richest socio-economic position ((aOR = 1.32, 95%CI:1.12-1.58, P<0.001) were more likely to demonstrate ANC4+ than those from low socio-economic position. Additionally, women who had completed secondary (aOR = 1.24, 95%CI:1.02-1.51, P = 0.03) and tertiary (aOR = 2.64, 95%CI:1.65-4.22, P<0.001) education were more likely to report having ANC4+ than those with no formal education. Conversely increasing parity was associated with a reduction in likelihood of ANC4+ with women who had previously delivered 2-3 (aOR = 0.74, 95%CI:0.63-0.86, P<0.001), 4-5 (aOR = 0.65, 95%CI:0.53-0.80, P<0.001) or greater than 6 (aOR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.47-0.79, <0.001) children being less likely to demonstrate ANC4+. CONCLUSION: The proportion of women reporting ANC4+ and of key ANC interventions in Malawi have increased significantly since 2004. However, we found that most women did not access the recommended number of ANC visits in Malawi, prior to the 2016 WHO policy change which may mean that women are less likely to undertake the 2016 WHO recommendation of 8 contacts per pregnancy. Additionally, our results highlighted significant variation in coverage according to key socio-demographic variables which should be considered when devising national strategies to ensure that all women access the appropriate frequency of ANC visits during their pregnancy

The changes in health service utilisation in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic and the restriction policies implemented by the Government of Malawi may have disrupted routine health service utilisation. We aimed to find evidence for such disruptions and quantify any changes by service type and level of health care. METHODS: We extracted nationwide routine health service usage data for 2015-2021 from the electronic health information management systems in Malawi. Two datasets were prepared: unadjusted and adjusted; for the latter, unreported monthly data entries for a facility were filled in through systematic rules based on reported mean values of that facility or facility type and considering both reporting rates and comparability with published data. Using statistical descriptive methods, we first described the patterns of service utilisation in pre-pandemic years (2015-2019). We then tested for evidence of departures from this routine pattern, i.e., service volume delivered being below recent average by more than two standard deviations was viewed as a substantial reduction, and calculated the cumulative net differences of service volume during the pandemic period (2020-2021), in aggregate and within each specific facility. RESULTS: Evidence of disruptions were found: from April 2020 to December 2021, services delivered of several types were reduced across primary and secondary levels of care-including inpatient care (-20.03% less total interactions in that period compared to the recent average), immunisation (-17.61%), malnutrition treatment (-34.5%), accidents and emergency services (-16.03%), HIV (human immunodeficiency viruses) tests (-27.34%), antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations for adults (-33.52%), and ART treatment for paediatrics (-41.32%). Reductions of service volume were greatest in the first wave of the pandemic during April-August 2020, and whereas some service types rebounded quickly (e.g., outpatient visits from -17.7% to +3.23%), many others persisted at lower level through 2021 (e.g., under-five malnutrition treatment from -15.24% to -42.23%). The total reduced service volume between April 2020 and December 2021 was 8 066 956 (-10.23%), equating to 444 units per 1000 persons. CONCLUSION: We have found substantial evidence for reductions in health service delivered in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic which may have potential health consequences, the effect of which should inform how decisions are taken in the future to maximise the resilience of healthcare system during similar events

Pulse oximetry and oxygen services for the care of children with pneumonia attending frontline health facilities in Lagos, Nigeria (INSPIRING-Lagos): study protocol for a mixed-methods evaluation

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this evaluation is to understand whether introducing stabilisation rooms equipped with pulse oximetry and oxygen systems to frontline health facilities in Ikorodu, Lagos State, alongside healthcare worker (HCW) training improves the quality of care for children with pneumonia aged 0-59 months. We will explore to what extent, how, for whom and in what contexts the intervention works. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Quasi-experimental time-series impact evaluation with embedded mixed-methods process and economic evaluation. SETTING: seven government primary care facilities, seven private health facilities, two government secondary care facilities. TARGET POPULATION: children aged 0-59 months with clinically diagnosed pneumonia and/or suspected or confirmed COVID-19. INTERVENTION: 'stabilisation rooms' within participating primary care facilities in Ikorodu local government area, designed to allow for short-term oxygen delivery for children with hypoxaemia prior to transfer to hospital, alongside HCW training on integrated management of childhood illness, pulse oximetry and oxygen therapy, immunisation and nutrition. Secondary facilities will also receive training and equipment for oxygen and pulse oximetry to ensure minimum standard of care is available for referred children. PRIMARY OUTCOME: correct management of hypoxaemic pneumonia including administration of oxygen therapy, referral and presentation to hospital. SECONDARY OUTCOME: 14-day pneumonia case fatality rate. Evaluation period: August 2020 to September 2022. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval from University of Ibadan, Lagos State and University College London. Ongoing engagement with government and other key stakeholders during the project. Local dissemination events will be held with the State Ministry of Health at the end of the project (December 2022). We will publish the main impact results, process evaluation and economic evaluation results as open-access academic publications in international journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12621001071819; Registered on the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry

Assessing the effect of health system resources on HIV and tuberculosis programmes in Malawi:a modelling study

BACKGROUND: Malawi is progressing towards UNAIDS and WHO End TB Strategy targets to eliminate HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the prospective effect of achieving these goals on the health and health system of the country and the influence of consumable constraints. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the Thanzi la Onse (Health for All) model, which is an individual-based multi-disease simulation model that simulates HIV and tuberculosis transmission, alongside other diseases (eg, malaria, non-communicable diseases, and maternal diseases), and gates access to essential medicines according to empirical estimates of availability. The model integrates dynamic disease modelling with health system engagement behaviour, health system use, and capabilities (ie, personnel and consumables). We used 2018 data on the availability of HIV and tuberculosis consumables (for testing, treatment, and prevention) across all facility levels of the country to model three scenarios of HIV and tuberculosis programme scale-up from Jan 1, 2023, to Dec 31, 2033: a baseline scenario, when coverage remains static using existing consumable constraints; a constrained scenario, in which prioritised interventions are scaled up with fixed consumable constraints; and an unconstrained scenario, in which prioritised interventions are scaled up with maximum availability of all consumables related to HIV and tuberculosis care. FINDINGS: With uninterrupted medical supplies, in Malawi, we projected HIV and tuberculosis incidence to decrease to 26 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 19-35) cases and 55 (23-74) cases per 100 000 person-years by 2033 (from 152 [98-195] cases and 123 [99-160] cases per 100 000 person-years in 2023), respectively, with programme scale-up, averting a total of 12·21 million (95% UI 11·39-14·16) disability-adjusted life-years. However, the effect was compromised by restricted access to key medicines, resulting in approximately 58 700 additional deaths (33 400 [95% UI 22 000-41 000] due to AIDS and 25 300 [19 300-30 400] due to tuberculosis) compared with the unconstrained scenario. Between 2023 and 2033, eliminating HIV treatment stockouts could avert an estimated 12 100 deaths compared with the baseline scenario, and improved access to tuberculosis prevention medications could prevent 5600 deaths in addition to those achieved through programme scale-up alone. With programme scale-up under the constrained scenario, consumable stockouts are projected to require an estimated 14·3 million extra patient-facing hours between 2023 and 2033, mostly from clinical or nursing staff, compared with the unconstrained scenario. In 2033, with enhanced screening, 188 000 (81%) of 232 900 individuals projected to present with active tuberculosis could start tuberculosis treatment within 2 weeks of initial presentation if all required consumables were available, but only 8600 (57%) of 15 100 presenting under the baseline scenario. INTERPRETATION: Ignoring frailties in the health-care system, in particular the potential non-availability of consumables, in projections of HIV and tuberculosis programme scale-up might risk overestimating potential health impacts and underestimating required health system resources. Simultaneous health system strengthening alongside programme scale-up is crucial, and should yield greater benefits to population health while mitigating the strain on a heavily constrained health-care system. FUNDING: Wellcome and UK Research and Innovation as part of the Global Challenges Research Fund

Measurement and valuation of health providers' time for the management of childhood pneumonia in rural Malawi - An empirical study

Background: Human resources are a major cost driver in childhood pneumonia case management. Introduction of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) in Malawi can lead to savings on staff time and salaries due to reductions in pneumonia cases requiring admission. Reliable estimates of human resource costs are vital for use in economic evaluations of PCV-13 introduction. Methods: Twenty-eight severe and twenty-four very severe pneumonia inpatients under the age of five were tracked from admission to discharge by paediatric ward staff using self-administered timesheets at Mchinji District Hospital between June and August 2012. All activities performed and the time spent on each activity were recorded. A monetary value was assigned to the time by allocating a corresponding percentage of the health workers' salary. All costs are reported in 2012 US$. Results: A total of 1,017 entries, grouped according to 22 different activity labels, were recorded during the observation period. On average, 99 min (standard deviation, SD = 46) were spent on each admission: 93 (SD = 38) for severe and 106 (SD = 55) for very severe cases. Approximately 40$ 2 per bed-day and, on average, US$29.5 per severe pneumonia admission and US$ 37.7 per very severe admission. Conclusions: Self-reporting was successfully used in this context to generate reliable estimates of human resource time and costs of childhood pneumonia treatment. Assuming vaccine efficacy of 41 % and 90 % coverage, PCV-13 introduction in Malawi can save over US$ 2 million per year in staff costs alone