How Effective Is the EU as a Mediator? The Case of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. EU Diplomacy Paper 01/2017

This paper aims to assess the effectiveness of the mediation endeavour of the European Union (EU) in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) since March 2015. The analytical part of this paper rests upon the identification of EU mediation objectives as defined in documents published before and during the mediation, notably the 2015 Pržino Agreement. It draws on the work of Bergmann and Niemann which operationalises mediator effectiveness along two dimensions: goalattainment and conflict-settlement.1 The factors that have – directly or indirectly – a bearing on the mediation process can be structured around four key clusters of variables: conflict context, mediator leverage, mediation strategy and coherence. The paper finds that the mediation process in the case of FYROM has been rather effective owing to the EU's mediator strategy and its high level of coherence. However, certain factors seem to have had a constraining impact on EU mediation effectiveness: very low levels of internal cohesiveness amongst the conflict parties and hence a high proclivity to spoiler problems, as well as the waning EU leverage as a result of the lack of a firm EU membership perspective

The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, with the exception those in the natural gas markets at the 3-month horizon. Futures do not appear to well predict subsequent movements in energy commodity prices, although they slightly outperform time series models.

Equilibrium Demand Elasticities across Quality Segments

Empirical studies find substantial differences in demand elasticities and associated markups among products of different quality. This paper analyzes the theoretical determinants of such variation. We present a simple model that allows for horizontal and vertical differentiation and accounts for endogenous entry. We find that most economic forces in our model, such as consumers’ price sensitivity, the scope for product differentiation, and sunk costs of entry, are likely to induce lower equilibrium demand elasticities for higher quality products. In contrast, other economic forces, such as marginal cost of production and the distribution (across consumers) of the willingness to pay for quality, may induce the opposite pattern. These results provide an organizing framework through which empirical findings may be interpreted, and may also help to predict variation in demand elasticities for markets in which empirical estimates of elasticities are unavailable or infeasible to obtain.

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?

This paper studies the small estimated effects of monetary policy shocks from standard VAR’s versus the large effects from the Romer and Romer (2004) approach. The differences are driven by three factors: the different contractionary impetus, the period of reserves targeting and lag length selection. Accounting for these factors, the real effects of policy shocks are consistent across approaches and most likely medium. Alternative monetary policy shock measures from estimated Taylor rules also yield medium-sized real effects and indicate that the historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to real fluctuations has been significant, particularly during the 1970s and early 1980s.

Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?

While the degree of policy inertia in central banks’ reaction functions is a central ingredient in theoretical and empirical monetary economics, the source of the observed policy inertia in the U.S. is controversial, with tests of competing hypotheses such as interest-smoothing and persistent-shocks theories being inconclusive. This paper employs real time data; nested specifications with flexible time series structures; narratives; interest rate forecasts of the Fed, financial markets, and professional forecasters; and instrumental variables to discriminate competing explanations of policy inertia. The presented evidence strongly favors the interest-smoothing explanation and thus can help resolve a key puzzle in monetary economics.

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation

With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle is not enough to guarantee a determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on restoring determinacy in New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and combine these with new empirical findings on the Federal Reserve’s reaction function before and after the Volcker disinflation to find that 1) while the Fed likely satisfied the Taylor principle in the pre-Volcker era, the US economy was still subject to self-fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s, 2) the US economy moved from indeterminacy to determinacy during the Volcker disinflation, and 3) the switch from indeterminacy to determinacy was due to the changes in the Fed’s response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation during the Volcker disinflation.

What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?

This paper uses three different surveys of economic forecasts to assess both the support for and the properties of informational rigidities faced by agents. Specifically, we track the impulse responses of mean forecast errors and disagreement among agents after exogenous structural shocks. Our key contribution is to document that in response to structural shocks, mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information: the half life of forecast errors is roughly between 6 months and a year. Importantly, the dynamic process followed by forecast errors following structural shocks is consistent with the predictions of models of informational rigidities. We interpret this finding as providing support for the recent expansion of research into models of informational rigidities. In addition, we document several stylized facts about the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents that can be used to differentiate between some of the models of informational rigidities recently proposed.

Acquisition des qualités organoleptiques de la viande bovine : adaptation à la demande du consommateur

La qualité d'une viande peut se définir suivant quatre qualités organoleptiques majeures : la couleur, la jutosité, la flaveur et la tendreté. La connaissance actuelle de la transformation du muscle en viande permet aujourd'hui d'évaluer ces critères de qualité par des méthodes instrumentales mais aussi et surtout sensorielles. Chacune de ces qualités peut être modifiée, améliorée ou détériorée depuis la naissance de l'animal jusqu'à sa mort, que ce soit par la génétique, l'alimentation, la zootechnie, la technique d'abattage ou au final la cuisson du produit. Cependant ces différents paramètres interagissent entre eux et complexifient encore les relations étroites existant entre ces quatre qualités organoleptiques prédominantes. A terme, les techniques d'obtention des viandes conduisent à des appellations de qualité où signification réelle et image ne sont pas toujours évidentes à identifier

Transformation zone location and intraepithelial neoplasia of the cervix uteri.

We examined the relationship between the frequency of premalignant lesions of the cervix and location of the transformation zone on the cervix among 8758 women as assessed using cervicography. An endo- and exocervical smear test was performed at the same time. Women with smear test classified CIN I or more were recalled and any abnormal area was biopsied under colposcopy. The transformation zone was located on the exocervix in 94% of women younger than 25 years old; as age increased, the proportion of women with a transformation zone located on the exocervix steadily decreased to reach less than 2% after 64 years old. As compared with women having a transformation zone in the endocervical canal, the age-adjusted likelihood of discovering a histologically proven dysplastic lesion was 1.8 times more frequent among women with a transformation zone located on the exocervix (95% confidence interval 1.1-2.9). This higher frequency seemed not attributable to a lower sensitivity of the smear test when the transformation zone was hidden. The results also showed that deliveries tended significantly to maintain the transformation zone on the exocervix. Parity is a known risk factor for cervix cancer, but the mechanism by which it favours malignant lesions remain unknown. Our results suggest that with increasing numbers of livebirths, the transformation zone is directly exposed for longer periods to external agents involved in dysplastic lesions

The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models

We study the effects of positive steady-state inflation in New Keynesian models subject to the zero bound on interest rates. We derive the utility-based welfare loss function taking into account the effects of positive steady-state inflation and show that steady-state inflation affects welfare through three distinct channels: steady-state effects, the magnitude of the coefficients in the utility-function approximation, and the dynamics of the model. We solve for the optimal level of inflation in the model and find that, for plausible calibrations, the optimal inflation rate is low, less than two percent, even after considering a variety of extensions, including price indexation, endogenous price stickiness, capital formation, model-uncertainty, and downward nominal wage rigidities. On the normative side, price level targeting delivers large welfare gains and a very low optimal inflation rate consistent with price stability.