Assessing Bias in Regression Estimates Using Monte Carlo Simulations: Examples in Criminal Justice Research

Can we trust published results? Problems with bias in reported results: “Do social scientists even know anything?” Failed replications (“repligate”). Inaccurate inferences about important relationships (Type I and Type II errors). Inaccurate power analyses for future studies. To avoid these problems, researchers need tools to rigorously evaluate statistical models. The Monte Carlo method is one tool that can be used to evaluate bias in model estimateshttps://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/gcua_symposium/1008/thumbnail.jp

Crowdfunding as a Financing Resource for Small Businesses

Although small businesses borrowed $1 trillion in 2013 from traditional lenders, 35% of small business owners were unable to obtain adequate financing and subsequently sought alternative sources such as crowdfunding. Guided by the pecking order theory, the purpose of this exploratory case study was to explore how 6 small business owners in Tennessee successfully used crowdfunding to start, grow, or sustain their businesses. Data were collected from semistructured interviews and a review of crowdfunding project data on the internet platform including the project description, target goal, amount achieved, number of backers, and locations of the funders. Data were inductively analyzed, first into coded phrases, then categories, and finally emergent themes. Findings revealed that these small business owners tapped into a strong social media network of potential funders for increased funding opportunities. They also advocated that project descriptions consist of high-quality project content and videos, 9 to 11 reward levels, and valuable rewards to entice funders to contribute to the campaign. These small business owners also noted that they devoted more time than originally anticipated during the planning, execution, and fulfillment phases, and they all faced preliminary transaction, fulfillment, and shipping costs when using crowdfunding. The risks included not receiving any funding, negative customer feedback, and poor reputation. These stories have implications for positive social change by illuminating the necessary resources to establish a successful business through employment of a social change mechanism. With funding for growth, the small business owner, family, and local community will promote economic prosperity

Fishes of Texas Project: Data Visualization and Analysis Tools

Poster presentation presented at the 2020 Texas Chapter of the American Fisheries Society annual meeting in Waco, Texas on January 24, 2020.The Fishes of Texas Project (FoTX) (http://fishesoftexas.org) database currently has 124,452 specimen-vouchered occurrence records spanning > 150 years with over 400,000 new records (including non-vouchered sources such as literature, anecdotal, and photo-based) in the process of being imported. Continual data growth prompted creation of new tools to dynamically assess (as the data evolve) the state of data coverage across various dimensions to increase user understanding and accessibility to the data and improve overall utility of the project. We produced species sampling curves, temporal species accumulation graphs, and heat maps of collecting event density over time and space for each river sub-basin within Texas. A QGIS plugin was also created to better assess the suspect status of incoming records. Each type of visualization has basic documentation, easily accessible statistical summaries, flexible queries, and exploration tools to help reveal variations in sampling density over both temporal and spatial dimensions. We highlight here the San Bernard River as an example of a notably under-sampled sub-basin (as indicated by diverse forms of evidence). With addition of future records, these dynamic tools will continue to illustrate taxonomic and spatial sampling deficiencies that in turn will help guide conservation planning.Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, under the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service State Wildlife Grant Program, grant TX T-180-R-1, F17AF01129 (CFDA# 15.634)Integrative Biolog

Vindicating the Matriarch: A Fair Housing Act Challenge to Federal No-Fault Evictions from Public Housing

Pearlie Rucker, sixty-three years old, had been living in public housing in Oakland, California for thirteen years. Ms. Rucker lived with her mentally disabled adult daughter, Gelinda, as well as two grandchildren and one great-grandchild. Ms. Rucker regularly searched Gelinda\u27s room for signs of drugs, and had warned Gelinda that any drug activity on the premises could result in eviction. Nevertheless, Gelinda was caught with drugs three blocks from the apartment. Despite the fact that Ms. Rucker had no knowledge of Gelinda\u27s drug activity, and in fact had been carefully monitoring what happened in her apartment, the Oakland Housing Authority (OHA) took steps to evict Ms. Rucker. Ms. Rucker and others brought suit in Federal District Court to challenge the actions of the OHA and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Eventually, the Supreme Court of the United States, in the 2002 case Department of Housing and Urban Development v. Rucker, held that the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988 requires lease terms that give public housing authorities (PHAs) the discretion to evict tenants for the drug-related activity of any household members and guests. The Court held that PHAs have the power to evict regardless of whether a tenant knew or should have known about the drug-related activity. This one-strike policy has been widely criticized as unfair to public housing leaseholders, since it has the potential to devastate them, even if they have not engaged in any drug activity, and even if they had no knowledge of the drug activity of household members and guests. The Rucker decision has also prompted significant discussion among lawyers and academics about ways to alter or challenge the policy to ensure that tenants are not treated in an unfair and draconian way. Given the statistics and social science research indicating that low and very low income households are often female-headed, it is very likely that the Rucker decision weighs most heavily on poor and minority women. These women probably constitute a large majority of the leaseholders who find themselves evicted from public housing under its rule. If the statistics prove this to be true, it may be possible to invalidate the applicable portion of the Anti-Drug Abuse Act, along with the HUD regulations that enforce it, based on sex discrimination under the Fair Housing Act (FHA). Alternatively, for PHAs that evict a disproportionate number of female leaseholders, FHA lawsuits could force those authorities to be fairer and more measured in their application of the policy

Measuring speech motor skills in phonologically disordered pre-school children and their normally developing peers

Previous research has demonstrated that normally developing children are expected to have adult like control of their speech production skills by 10 years of age, as evidenced by increases in speed of production and decreases in performance variability. (e. g. Kent and Fortier 1980). There is also some evidence to suggest that phonologically disordered children may have poorer speech motor skills than their normally developing peers (e. g. Henry 1990, Edwards 1992, Waters 1992, Towne 1994). There are numerous techniques that can be used to measure a number of different aspects of speech motor control. However, there are methodological difficulties in devising appropriate protocols for the collection and analysis of speed of speech production as used as an index of speech motor skill in young children. Some of the techniques that have had clinical application include measurement of rate in connected speech production and measurement of diadochokinetic (DDK) repetition rate. This investigation compared normally developing and phonologically disordered preschool children on various indirect measures of speech motor skills, in imitated and spontaneous connected speech and in DDK tasks. The investigation also focused on refining the techniques of data collection and analysis appropriate to young children. While the results vary with regard to the statistical significance of the differences between the two groups of children on articulation rates and DDK rates, analysis of the error patterns in single word, spontaneous connected speech, imitated connected speech and DDK productions identified a sub group of phonologically disordered children who may present with an underlying speech motor deficit as the basis of their phonological disability. The results of the investigation are considered in terms of their implication for the speech motor skills of the two groups of children, techniques for measuring various aspects of speech motor skill and the clinical identification of phonologically disordered children who have an underlying speech motor deficit

Year 1 report for ‘Conserving Texas Biodiversity: Status, Trends, and Conservation Planning for Fishes of Greatest Conservation Need’

State Wildlife Grant Program, grant TX T-106-1 (CFDA# 15.634), Contract No. 459125 UTA14-001402Substantive progress was made on all major Project Activities in this first year: Activity 1. Coordinate and Facilitate Science and Conservation Actions for Conserving Texas Biodiversity - We expanded and strengthened UT-TPWD coordination, transitioning the relationship between these partners into a much more collaborative one than was previously realized. The flow of data between TPWD and the Fishes of Texas Project (supported in part by this project) has become much more bi-directional. Many newly collected TPWD specimens, agency databases, legacy data products and reports, and feedback from resource managers are now beginning to contribute substantively to growth and diversity (now including non-specimen-vouchered records) of data served through the FoTX Project’s websites. Work on cleaning and normalizing of FoTX’s online specimen-vouchered database continued, and the updated FoTX occurrence and distribution data are being actively used. Most recently they were used by this project, together with expert (TPWD, UT and others’) opinions, to develop recommendations on conservation status of native fishes of Texas’ Species of Greatest Conservation Need for TPWD’s consideration in anticipated updates to the Texas Conservation Action Plan. Within two months of this report, a new and substantially larger and improved version of the FoTX website/database and related collection of images, field notes, and ancillary datasets, will be formally announced. Activity 2. Identify Priority Geographic Management Units for Conserving Fishes of Greatest Conservation Need - We used FoTX data in a systematic conservation area prioritization analysis to identify Native Fish Conservation Areas (NFCAs) for large portions of Texas where such comprehensive planning had not been previously carried out. Updated and new FoTX data for all Texas fish Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) were used in production of newly improved Species Distribution Models for input into this planning process, and the results of the planning exercise have already been integrated by TPWD into management prioritizations of both those species and the resultant NFCAs. Activity 3. Develop Monitoring and Conservation Plans for Native Fish Conservation Areas - Monitoring and conservation plans were delivered to TPWD for all NFCAs identified in Activity 2. Activity 4. Conduct Field-Based Surveys Detailed Biodiversity Assessments (i.e. Bioblitzing), and Citizen-Based Monitoring - Field surveys with detailed biodiversity assessments (“bioblitzes”) and citizen-based monitoring were conducted in three areas selected collaboratively by TPWD and FoTX Project staff from within the identified NFCAs: Nueces River headwaters, Big Cypress Bayou basin, and Village Creek basin. Along with this field effort, FoTX Project staff developed and circulated guidelines and best practices, and provided training for citizen-based monitoring that leverages iNaturalist for capture and reporting of photo-vouchered occurrence records in ways that will help assure scientifically useful data are obtained. All specimens acquired during these field efforts, and from many other routine specimen acquisitions from across the state (1845 total records/jars of specimens), were cataloged in the UT Fish Collection database. From there, these new records will soon be fed into GBIF, VertNet, FishNet2 and other major online data aggregators, including the online Fishes of Texas database.Texas Parks and Wildlife Department; U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceIntegrative Biolog

An Ivory Rod with a Cuneiform Inscription, Most Probably Ugaritic, from a Final Palatial Workshop in the Lower Citadel of Tiryns

The subject of this contribution is the fragment of an ivory rod with six cuneiform signs that was found in 2002. The rod came to light in a destruction layer dating to LH III B Final within a workshop for skilled crafting inside Building XI which is situated in the northernmost part of the Lower Citadel of Tiryns. The inscription is interpreted as the first example of an Ugaritic text found outside of the Levant. The text is written from left to right combining Akkadian logographic numerical signs and at least one letter of the regular Ugaritic alphabet. After discussing different possibilities concerning the object’s function, an interpretation as a ›tally stick‹ is proposed, i.e. a mnemonic device to document numbers, quantities or possibly a message, that was used by Levantine or Cypriote specialists for skilled crafting who were working in Building XI on behalf of the palace. The find assemblage in Building XI serves as a reminder that it would be highly misleading to regard oriental objects like the ivory rod with cuneiform signs or wall brackets appearing in a Mycenaean harbor town such as Tiryns as mere ›exotica‹. Instead, contextual analysis demonstrates that the users were well aware of the special significance attached to such objects in the east and employed them in accordance with practices of Near Eastern or Cypriote origin, thus signaling their cultural affiliations

Tips & Tricks for Handling Difficult Requests

Presentation slides from panel presentation at the 2018 OCLC Resource Sharing Conferenc