Formation of the first three gravitational-wave observations through isolated binary evolution

During its first 4 months of taking data, Advanced LIGO has detected gravitational waves from two binary black hole mergers, GW150914 and GW151226, along with the statistically less significant binary black hole merger candidate LVT151012. We use our rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS to show that all three events can be explained by a single evolutionary channel -- classical isolated binary evolution via mass transfer including a common envelope phase. We show all three events could have formed in low-metallicity environments (Z = 0.001) from progenitor binaries with typical total masses $\gtrsim 160 M_\odot$, $\gtrsim 60 M_\odot$ and $\gtrsim 90 M_\odot$, for GW150914, GW151226, and LVT151012, respectively.Comment: Published in Nature Communication

STROOPWAFEL: Simulating rare outcomes from astrophysical populations, with application to gravitational-wave sources

Gravitational-wave observations of double compact object (DCO) mergers are providing new insights into the physics of massive stars and the evolution of binary systems. Making the most of expected near-future observations for understanding stellar physics will rely on comparisons with binary population synthesis models. However, the vast majority of simulated binaries never produce DCOs, which makes calculating such populations computationally inefficient. We present an importance sampling algorithm, STROOPWAFEL, that improves the computational efficiency of population studies of rare events, by focusing the simulation around regions of the initial parameter space found to produce outputs of interest. We implement the algorithm in the binary population synthesis code COMPAS, and compare the efficiency of our implementation to the standard method of Monte Carlo sampling from the birth probability distributions. STROOPWAFEL finds $\sim$25-200 times more DCO mergers than the standard sampling method with the same simulation size, and so speeds up simulations by up to two orders of magnitude. Finding more DCO mergers automatically maps the parameter space with far higher resolution than when using the traditional sampling. This increase in efficiency also leads to a decrease of a factor $\sim$3-10 in statistical sampling uncertainty for the predictions from the simulations. This is particularly notable for the distribution functions of observable quantities such as the black hole and neutron star chirp mass distribution, including in the tails of the distribution functions where predictions using standard sampling can be dominated by sampling noise.Comment: Accepted. Data and scripts to reproduce main results is publicly available. The code for the STROOPWAFEL algorithm will be made publicly available. Early inquiries can be addressed to the lead autho

Accuracy of inference on the physics of binary evolution from gravitational-wave observations

The properties of the population of merging binary black holes encode some of the uncertain physics of the evolution of massive stars in binaries. The binary black hole merger rate and chirp mass distribution are being measured by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We consider isolated binary evolution and explore how accurately the physical model can be constrained with such observations by applying the Fisher information matrix to the merging black hole population simulated with the rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS. We investigate variations in four COMPAS parameters: common envelope efficiency, kick velocity dispersion, and mass loss rates during the luminous blue variable and Wolf--Rayet stellar evolutionary phases. We find that 1000 observations would constrain these model parameters to a fractional accuracy of a few percent. Given the empirically determined binary black hole merger rate, we can expect gravitational-wave observations alone to place strong constraints on the physics of stellar and binary evolution within a few years.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures; version accepted by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Be X-ray binaries in the SMC as indicators of mass transfer efficiency

Be X-ray binaries (BeXRBs) consist of rapidly rotating Be stars with neutron star companions accreting from the circumstellar emission disk. We compare the observed population of BeXRBs in the Small Magellanic Cloud with simulated populations of BeXRB-like systems produced with the COMPAS population synthesis code. We focus on the apparently higher minimal mass of Be stars in BeXRBs than in the Be population at large. Assuming that BeXRBs experienced only dynamically stable mass transfer, their mass distribution suggests that at least 30% of the mass donated by the progenitor of the neutron star is typically accreted by the B-star companion. We expect these results to affect predictions for the population of double compact object mergers. A convolution of the simulated BeXRB population with the star formation history of the Small Magellanic Cloud shows that the excess of BeXRBs is most likely explained by this galaxy's burst of star formation around 20--40 Myr ago

Common-Envelope Episodes that lead to Double Neutron Star formation

Close double neutron stars have been observed as Galactic radio pulsars, while their mergers have been detected as gamma-ray bursts and gravitational-wave sources. They are believed to have experienced at least one common-envelope episode during their evolution prior to double neutron star formation. In the last decades there have been numerous efforts to understand the details of the common-envelope phase, but its computational modelling remains challenging. We present and discuss the properties of the donor and the binary at the onset of the Roche-lobe overflow leading to these common-envelope episodes as predicted by rapid binary population synthesis models. These properties can be used as initial conditions for detailed simulations of the common-envelope phase. There are three distinctive populations, classified by the evolutionary stage of the donor at the moment of the onset of the Roche-lobe overflow: giant donors with fully-convective envelopes, cool donors with partially-convective envelopes, and hot donors with radiative envelopes. We also estimate that, for standard assumptions, tides would not circularise a large fraction of these systems by the onset of Roche-lobe overflow. This makes the study and understanding of eccentric mass-transferring systems relevant for double neutron star populations.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figures. Includes bug fix. Two new figures and an appendix adde

Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations I: Black Hole-Neutron Star Mergers

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, $r$-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{m}}^0 \approx 4$-$830\,\rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{det}} \approx 1$-$180\, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal{O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5\%$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $\gtrsim 18\,M_{\odot}$, total masses $\gtrsim 20\,M_{\odot}$, chirp masses $\gtrsim 5.5\,M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $\gtrsim 12$ or $\lesssim 2$. Moreover, we find that massive NSs $\gtrsim 2\,M_{\odot}$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations.Comment: 38 pages, 18 figures, accepted to MNRAS. The authors welcome suggestions and feedback. All data and code to reproduce the results in this paper are publicly availabl

Detecting double neutron stars with LISA

We estimate the properties of the double neutron star (DNS) population that will be observable by the planned space-based interferometer LISA. By following the gravitational radiation driven evolution of DNSs generated from rapid population synthesis of massive binary stars, we estimate that around 35 DNSs will accumulate a signal-to-noise ratio above 8 over a four-year LISA mission. The observed population mainly comprises Galactic DNSs (94 per cent), but detections in the LMC (5 per cent) and SMC (1 per cent) may also be expected. The median orbital frequency of detected DNSs is expected to be 0.8 mHz, and many of them will be eccentric (median eccentricity of $0.11$). The orbital properties will provide insights into DNS progenitors and formation channels. LISA is expected to localise these DNSs to a typical angular resolution of $2^\circ$, with best-constrained sources localised to a few arcminutes. These localisations may allow neutron star natal kick magnitudes to be constrained through the Galactic distribution of DNSs, and make it possible to follow up the sources with radio pulsar searches. However, LISA is also expected to resolve $\sim 10^4$ Galactic double white dwarfs, many of which may have binary parameters that resemble DNSs; we discuss how the combined measurement of binary eccentricity, chirp mass, and sky location may aid the identification of a DNS. We expect the best-constrained DNSs to have eccentricities known to a few parts in a thousand, chirp masses measured to better than 1 per cent fractional uncertainty, and sky localisation at the level of a few arcminutes.Comment: Accepted by the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, added comparison with two more binary evolution prescription

The Impact of Pair-instability Mass Loss on the Binary Black Hole Mass Distribution

A population of binary black hole mergers has now been observed in gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO and Virgo. The masses of these black holes appear to show evidence for a pileup between 30 and 45 M-circle dot and a cutoff above similar to 45 M-circle dot. One possible explanation for such a pileup and subsequent cutoff are pulsational pair-instability supernovae (PPISNe) and pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) in massive stars. We investigate the plausibility of this explanation in the context of isolated massive binaries. We study a population of massive binaries using the rapid population synthesis software COMPAS, incorporating models for PPISNe and PISNe. Our models predict a maximum black hole mass of 40 M-circle dot. We expect similar to 10% of all binary black hole mergers at redshift z = 0 will include at least one component that went through a PPISN (with mass 30-40 M-circle dot), constituting similar to 20%-50% of binary black hole mergers observed during the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Virgo. Empirical models based on fitting the gravitational-wave mass measurements to a combination of a power law and a Gaussian find a fraction too large to be associated with PPISNe in our models. The rates of PPISNe and PISNe track the low metallicity star formation rate, increasing out to redshift z = 2. These predictions may be tested both with future gravitational-wave observations and with observations of superluminous supernovae