Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses

There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) estimated by Cerra and Saxena (2008) suggest that the effects of earlier crises were long-lasting. We show that standard estimates of IRFs are highly sensitive to misspecification of the underlying data generation process. Direct estimation of IRFs by a methodology similar to Jorda's (2005) local projection method is robust to misspecifications of the data generation process but yields biased estimates when country fixed effects are added. We propose a simple method to deal with this bias, which we apply to panel data from 99 countries for the period 1974-2001. Our estimates suggest that an average banking crisis leads to an output loss of around 10 percent with little sign of recovery. GDP losses from banking crises are more severe for African countries and economies in transition.banking crisis, impulse response, panel data

Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model

This paper provides a new way of analyzing tenure profiles in wages, by modelling simultaneously the evolution of wages and the distribution of tenures. We develop a theoretical model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside wage and log wage in the current job follow a random walk, as found empirically. This setting allows the application of real option theory. We derive the efficient separation rule. The model fits the observed distribution of job tenures well. Since we observe outside wages only at job start and job separation, our empirical analysis of within job wage growth is based on expected wage growth conditional on the outside wages at both dates. Our modelling allows testing of the efficient bargaining hypothesis. The model is estimated on the PSID.random productivity growth, efficient bargaining, job tenure, inverse gaussian, wage-tenure profiles, option theory

Rhineland Exit?

We argue in favor of the shareholder model of the firm for three main reasons. First, serving multiple stakeholders leads to ill-defined property rights. What sounds like a fair compromise between stakeholders can easily evolve in a permanent struggle about the ultimate goal of the company. Second, giving workers a claim on the surplus of the firm raises the cost of capital for investments in jobs. Third, making shareholders the ultimate owner of the firm provides the best possible diversification of firm-specific risks. Diversification of firm-specific risk on capital markets is an efficient form of social insurance. Hence, firms should bear the full cost of specific investment, while workers should be paid only their outside option. Empirical results for Denmark, Portugal and the United States show that Denmark is closest to the first-best outcome, while Portugal and the United States deviate in different ways. Coordination in wage bargaining and collective norms help reduce the claim of workers on the firm’s surplus. Collective action, however, is a mixed blessing because politicians also face the temptation to please incumbent workers with short-run gains at the expense of exposing workers to firm-specific risks and reducing job creation. The transition from the Rhineland towards the shareholder model is fraught with difficulties. While society reaps long-run gains in efficiency, in the short run a generation of insiders has to give up their rights.wage setting, optimal risk sharing, employment protection, corporate governance

Algemene beginselen

Ook in de periode die deze kroniek bestrijkt (1 september tot 1 december 2008), blijken de procesbeginselen weer een prominente rol te hebben gespeeld. Opvallend is de relatief grote oogst proefschriften waarin aandacht is besteed aan de beginselen. Goed nieuws is dat na twaalf jaar een geactualiseerde uitgave is verschenen van het proefschrift van Smits (Artikel 6 EVRM en de civiele procedure, Deventer: Kluwer 2008). Ook in het proefschrift van Sujecki naar de (Nederlandse) betalingsbevelprocedure staat art. EVRM centraal (Das niederländische Mahnverfahren unter Berücksichtigung der Möglichkeiten der elektronischen Mahnverfahrensdurchführung im Rahmen der verfahrensrechtlichen Garantien des Art. 6 Abs. 1 EMRK (diss. UU), 2008). En de berechting binnen een redelijke termijn vormt het kader van het proefschrift van Eshuis (Het recht in betere tijden, Den Haag: BJu 2007)

THE INFLUENCE OF MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF FLOOD CASES FOR UNIT HYDROGRAPH CALCULATION TO DESIGNED DISCHARGE ACCURATENESS

Various methods can be used to predict design discharge, such as unit hydrograph theory. Problem to be coped with is the number of flood case required to derive the unit hydrograph for obtaining a unit hydrograph that represents a watershed and to obtain accurateness of certain design discharge. Subject of this study is based on four watersheds, two in the Province of Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta: Code and Gajahwong watersheds, and two in the Province of Jawa Tengah: Upstream Progo and Bogowonto watersheds. Unit hydrograph representing a watershed is obtained by averaging the results of unit hydrograph analysis on several flood cases occurs in the studied watershed, in which this study uses the unit hydrograph. Accuracy analysis of unit hydrograph is carried out by comparing design discharge resulted from used unit hydrograph application and referred design discharge reference, which is the discharge of used unit hydrograph result on the most flood cases and analysis result of measured maximum discharge frequency. Results of this study show a tendency that larger number of flood cases used to derive the unit hydrograph implies smaller peak of the resulted unit hydrograph and more accurate designed discharge calculation. To obtain less than 10% relative error on the designed discharge for the outmost numbers of flood cases, it requires at least 10 flood cases with spesific discharge between 0.40 to 1.10 m3/s/km2. Designed discharge resulted from unit hydrograph indicates over estimated as well as under estimated tendency for various period to maximum discharge of the frequency analysis with relatively short length of data (<10 years)

Technological protection measures: South Africa goes overboard. Overbroad.

In the digital world, technological protection measures (TPMs) are increasingly used by authors to safeguard against copyright infringement. TPMs mainly control access to copyright works and/or the use of such works (for example, by limiting copying of these works). The international framework for protection against the circumvention of TPMs is found in the WIPO Copyright Treaty (WCT) of 1996. This article examines this framework, and how the international obligations have been discharged in the United States and Europe. In this context the extent of the protection, and possible exceptions and limitations, are considered. It is noted that overbroad protection would be particularly prejudicial to research and education in developing countries, and in this way would deny them the benefits of access to information and learning through global information networks. Finally, the position in South Africa is considered with reference to the Electronic Communications and Transactions (ECT) Act of 2002, which adopts a level of protection far stricter than that adopted in any of the developed countries surveyed

EMPOWERING COMMUNITIES OF RUBBER TANK GROUPS THROUGH THE APPLICATION OF LIQUID SMOKING IPTEX AS A MATERIAL FOR LATEX LITI VILLAGE, CENTRAL KAHAYAN DISTRICT, DISTRICT OF PULANG PISAU DISTRICT, CENTRAL KALIMANTAN PROVINCE

Bukit Liti Village is one of the villages which is administratively located in Central Kahayan District, Pulang Pisau Regency, Central Kalimantan Province. Bukit Liti Village has an area of 9,461.10 Ha with population density has reached 925 people. The location is ± 35 km from the capital of Central Kalimantan Province, Palangka Raya and ± 130 km from the town Pulang Pisau, and ± 12 km from the capital district Kahayan Tengah. Villagers in Bukit Liti village welcomed community service activities organized by Palangka Raya University, in the future they hope to conduct regular PKM activities in the village. The output resulting from this PKM activity is 3 units of pyrolysis reactor to produce liquid smoke. The use of liquid smoke as a latex freezer gives a real impact to farmers that are environmentally friendly, effective as latex clotting, preventing and reducing the bad smell of rubber materials and improving the quality of rubber processed materials. At the end of this community partnership program, the implementing team will conduct an evaluation of the implementation by conducting a simple survey of community opinions regarding program implementation, as well as their expectations of future activities

Measurement Error in Education and Growth Regressions

The perpetual inventory method used for the construction of education data per country leads to systematic measurement error. This paper analyses the effect of this measurement error on GDP regressions. There is a systematic difference in the education level between census data and observations constructed from enrolment data. We discuss a methodology for correcting the measurement error. The standard attenuation bias suggests that using these corrected data would lead to a higher coefficient. Our regressions reveal the opposite. We discuss why the measurement error yields an overestimation. Our analysis contributes to an explanation of thedifference between regressions based on 5 and on 10 year first-differences.growth, education, measurement error

An evaluation of the compliance to the ventilation aspects of airborne infectious disease control in Cape Town, South Africa

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major healthcare problem worldwide and is endemic to Cape Town, South Africa. Health Care Workers in Emergency Centers (ECs) are at high risk of nosocomial TB infection. The aim of this study was to determine whether the isolation rooms (IRs)in emergency centers, for patients with diagnosed or suspected TB, comply with set National Core Standards. Methods: This was a cross-sectional descriptive study of ECs in the Cape Town Metropolitan area. .The characteristics of IRs with regards to air changes per hour (ACH), negative pressure ventilation with relation to the surrounding areas and appropriate discharge of air outdoors or via filters before recirculation was measured using standard objective engineering methods. Results: 19 IRs in 8 ECs were evaluated, none of which complied with the National Core Standard's ideal requirements for IRs. Five complied with minimal requirements . Eleven (57,9%) IRs were designed to have negative pressure; and 8 (42,1%) rooms were not designed for isolation purposes, . IR volumes ranged from 15,5 m³ to 67,2 m³ (median 35,6 m³). Five (26,3%) IRs were under negative pressure; 7 (36,8%) had erratic air flow; and 7 (36,8%) showed positive airflow from the IR into adjacent clinical areas. Fifteen (78,9%) IRs had central provision of air via a ventilation system; 6 (31,6%) had central air extraction; 6 (31,6%) had local extraction; and 7 (36,8%) used natural ventilation only. Four local extraction units had zero flow rate. Airflow in naturally ventilated IRs was significantly lower than flow with other systems (p = 0,0002). The ACH ranged from 0 (n=4) to 112.37 (median 11,9); and was significantly greater in rooms ventilated with central extraction compared to other systems (p = 0,00002). Discussion: The ventilation aspects of airborne infectious disease control are generally poorly implemented. This may contribute to, and fail to mitigate, the high risk of nosocomial transmission of airborne infectious diseases to staff and other patients utilising emergency facilities in the TB endemic areas of Cape Town. Conclusion: Existing ECs should improve adherence to standards of airborne infectious disease transmission prevention in order to protect patients and staff from nosocomial airborne transmitted diseases, such as TB. New Hospitals should place a high priority on the amount, positioning and maintenance of IRs when planning their facility