54 research outputs found
Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil
We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (») and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that » and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.CNPqFAPESPFMUSP - H
Dengue epidemic early warning system for Brazil
Copyright © 2015 UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)The problem
Brazil has reported more cases of dengue fever than anywhere else in the world this century1. Many cities have tropical and sub-tropical climate conditions that allow the dengue mosquito to thrive during warmer, wetter and more humid months, particularly in densely populated urban areas. Dengue epidemics depend on mosquito abundance, virus circulation and human susceptibility. In order to prepare for dengue epidemics, early warning systems, which take into account multiple dengue risk factors, are required to implement timely control measures. Seasonal climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate dengue epidemics several months in advance ...European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project DENFREEEuropean Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project EUPORIASEuropean Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project SPECSConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ
Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus
The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally
Case Fatality Rate Related to Microcephaly Congenital Zika Syndrome and Associated Factors: A Nationwide Retrospective Study in Brazil †.
BACKGROUND: The clinical manifestations of microcephaly/congenital Zika syndrome (microcephaly/CZS) have harmful consequences on the child's health, increasing vulnerability to childhood morbidity and mortality. This study analyzes the case fatality rate and child-maternal characteristics of cases and deaths related to microcephaly/CZS in Brazil, 2015-2017. METHODS: Population-based study developed by linkage of three information systems. We estimate frequencies of cases, deaths, case fatality rate related to microcephaly/CZS according to child and maternal characteristics and causes of death. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied. RESULTS: The microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate was 10% (95% CI 9.2-10.7). Death related to microcephaly/CZS was associated to moderate (OR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.63-2.83), and very low birth weight (OR = 3.77; 95% CI 2.20-6.46); late preterm births (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.21-2.23), Apgar < 7 at 1st (OR = 5.98; 95% CI 4.46-8.02) and 5th minutes (OR = 4.13; 95% CI 2.78-6.13), among others. CONCLUSIONS: A high microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate and important factors associated with deaths related to this syndrome were observed. These results can alert health teams to these problems and increase awareness about the factors that may be associated with worse outcomes
Dengue contingency planning: from research to policy and practice
Background Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks. Methodology/Principal findings Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed. Conclusions/Significance Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan
Atividades preliminares do programa de controle e tratamento da oncocercose no território Yanomâmi, Roraima, Brasil
Após caracterização clínico-epidemiológica da oncocercose na região Yanomâmi, RR, Brasil, iniciada em 1993, a Fundação Nacional de Saúde (FNS) implementou um projeto piloto de controle e tratamento nos pólos de base de Tootobi e Balawaú. Nestes, foram estudadas biópsias de pele de 426 pessoas. Nos nódulos de 86,7% de pacientes, foi encontrada Onchocerca volvulus. A prevalência global encontrada na população examinada foi 66,2%. O tratamento, com ivermectina, teve uma cobertura de 80,1% da população total. Reações adversas ao medicamento foram relatadas em 12,3% dos pacientes, sendo consideradas como leves e moderadas. Estes resultados são concordantes com os descritos na literatura médica e sugerem a factibilidade da ampliação do referido Programa para toda a área Yanomâmi, numa próxima fase.After to characterize the clinic and epidemiological picture of the onchocerciasis in Yanomâmi region, RR, Brazil, begun in 1993, the National Health Foundation (FNS) implemented a Control and Treatment Pilot Project in Tootobi and Balawaú. Here, it was studied skin biopsies from 426 inhabitants. In the nodules of 86.7% from patients was encountered Onchocerca volvulus. The over-all prevalence in the examined population was 66.2%. The treatment with ivermectin covered 80.1% of total population. Adverse reactions, light and moderate, of the medicament were reported in 12.3% of the patients. These results agreeing with the medical literature and suggesting the viability of to increase of the programme for all Yanomâmi area in the next phase
Atividades preliminares do programa de controle e tratamento da oncocercose no território Yanomâmi, Roraima, Brasil
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Risk of dengue for tourists and teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil.
BackgroundThis year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country.Methodology/principal findingsWe used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001-2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th-100th percentile: 5-334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30-77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively).Conclusion/significanceThe risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events
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