ROLES OF PERCEIVED CONTROL AND PLANNING IN RANCH DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS

Ranchers in the Great Plains and across the United States face the threat of periodic drought. Though ranchers might minimize losses through drought-preparedness activities, many do not adequately prepare for drought, in part because of perceptions that the outcomes of drought management are not controllable. We explore how drought planning activities affect ranchers\u27 perceptions of control and drought preparedness using the theories of planned behavior and goal attainment as guiding frameworks. Ten Great Plains ranchers who had engaged in drought management activities were interviewed about their plans. From the interviews, three activities emerged that appeared to increase ranchers\u27 perceived control during drought: maximizing the health and flexibility of the ranch operation, monitoring precipitation and forage, and implementing decision rules as drought conditions became apparent and progressed. The actions supported greater perceived control in the face of drought by increasing the number of desirable options available to ranchers, increasing ranchers\u27 confidence in predicting the effects of their actions, and providing mental practice for decision making during a drought event. This exploratory research demonstrates the value of incorporating theories of planned behavior and goal attainment into applied research on rangeland management and drought planning behavior, and suggests directions for future research and education

ROLES OF PERCEIVED CONTROL AND PLANNING IN RANCH DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS

Ranchers in the Great Plains and across the United States face the threat of periodic drought. Though ranchers might minimize losses through drought-preparedness activities, many do not adequately prepare for drought, in part because of perceptions that the outcomes of drought management are not controllable. We explore how drought planning activities affect ranchers\u27 perceptions of control and drought preparedness using the theories of planned behavior and goal attainment as guiding frameworks. Ten Great Plains ranchers who had engaged in drought management activities were interviewed about their plans. From the interviews, three activities emerged that appeared to increase ranchers\u27 perceived control during drought: maximizing the health and flexibility of the ranch operation, monitoring precipitation and forage, and implementing decision rules as drought conditions became apparent and progressed. The actions supported greater perceived control in the face of drought by increasing the number of desirable options available to ranchers, increasing ranchers\u27 confidence in predicting the effects of their actions, and providing mental practice for decision making during a drought event. This exploratory research demonstrates the value of incorporating theories of planned behavior and goal attainment into applied research on rangeland management and drought planning behavior, and suggests directions for future research and education

How to Reduce Drought Risk

This guide describes a practical step-by-step process for identifying actions that can be taken to reduce potential drought-related impacts before a drought occurs. Step 1 begins with making sure that the right people are brought together and supplied with adequate data to make informed and equitable decisions during the process. Steps 2 and 3 narrow the focus of the study by identifying high priority drought-related impacts that are relevant to the user’s location or activity. Step 4 demonstrates that in order to reduce the potential for the identified impacts to occur in the future, it is necessary to understand the underlying environmental, economic, and social causes of the impacts. Finally, Steps 5 and 6 utilize all of the previous information to identify feasible, cost-effective, and equitable actions that can be taken to address the identified causes. In this manner, true drought vulnerabilities can be addressed that will subsequently reduce drought-related impacts and risk

Drought Preparedness Planning: Building Institutional Capacity

Past attempts to manage drought and its impacts through a reactive, crisis management approach have been ineffective, poorly coordinated, and untimely, as illustrated by the hydro- illogical cycle in Figure 1. The crisis management approach has been followed in both developed and developing countries. Because of the ineffectiveness of this approach, greater interest has evolved in recent years in the adoption of a more proactive risk-based management approach in some countries (see Chapter 6). Other countries are striving to obtain a higher level of preparedness through development of national action programs that are part of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) or as part of separate national initiatives. In part, these actions directly result from the occurrence of recent severe drought episodes that have persisted for several consecutive years or frequent episodes that have occurred in succession with short respites for recovery between events. Global warming, with its threat of an increased frequency of drought events in the future, has also caused greater anxiety about the absence of preparation for drought, which is a normal part of climate. Other factors that have contributed to this trend toward improved drought preparedness and policy development are spiraling costs or impacts associated with drought, complexity of impacts on sectors well beyond agriculture, increasing social and environmental effects, and rising water conflicts between users

Multiple-Year Droughts In Nebraska

Most people understand that droughts have had a major impact on Nebraska in the past. Yet, many Nebraskans continue to be surprised when drought occurs. It is important to remember that droughts, including multiple-year droughts, are a normal part of Nebraska’s climate. This NebGuide discusses the history of drought in Nebraska, and aims to help Nebraskans better understand the range of climatic variability when they plan for drought

Development of a Low Flow Early Warning System for the National Weather Service

The National Weather Service\u27s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) currently provides river flow/stage and forecast information at more than 3,600 forecast points across the United States. Along with this information, AHPS describes potential flood impacts that may occur within the upstream and downstream influence of the forecasts points. However, similar information is not available for low flow events. In order to incorporate low flow information into the current AHPS river forecast database, the National Weather Service has undertaken pilot studies to obtain relevant low flow impact information near 83 forecast points in the Upper Mississippi, Upper Missouri, and North Platte river basins

Evaluation of Remotely Sensed Precipitation Estimates from the NASA POWER Project for Drought Detection Over Jordan

Droughts can cause devastating impacts on water and land resources and therefore monitoring these events forms an integral part of planning. The most common approach for detecting drought events and assessing their intensity is use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which requires abundant precipitation records at good spatial distribution. This may restrict SPI usage in many regions around the world, particularly in areas with limited numbers of ground meteorological stations. Therefore, the use of remotely sensed derived data of precipitation can contribute to drought monitoring. In this study, remotely sensed precipitation estimates from the POWER/Agroclimatology archive of NASA and their derived SPI for different time intervals were evaluated against gauged observations of precipitation from 13 different stations in arid and semiarid locations in Jordan. Results showed significant correlations between remotely sensed and ground data with relatively high R values (0.67–0.91), particularly where seasonal precipitation exceeded 50 mm/year. For evaluation of remotely sensed data in SPI calculation, several objective functions were used; the results showed that SPI based on satellite estimates (SAT-SPI) showed good performance in detecting extreme droughts and indicating wet/dry conditions. However, SAT-SPI showed high tendency to overestimate drought intensity. Based on these findings, remotely sensed precipitation from the POWER/Agroclimatology archive showed good potential for use in detecting extreme meteorological drought with the provision of careful interpretation of the data. These types of studies are essential for evaluating the applicability of new drought monitoring information and tools to support decision-making at relevant scales

2018 NDMC ANNUAL

Contents01 From the director 02 Drought preparation toolkit tested in Nebraska available to all 03 Partnerships produce vulnerability assessments for tribes 04 Drought Monitor maps & stats localized for NWS offices 05 Producer workshops focus on latest drought management tools 06 2018 by the numbers 08 Where we were in 2018 10 New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier 11 Five states began drought plan updates in 2018 12 Project brought drought management, monitoring skills to 4 countries 13 2018 Publication highlights 16 Collaboration 17 Team and partnership

Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin

Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies, initialization techniques, and data requirements, but not much attention is being given to decadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. Here, the authors report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River basin as a case study. This assessment was achieved through discussions with 120 stakeholders. Stakeholders’ awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the basin are described, and stakeholders’ DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. The authors find that impacts, including economic impacts, of decadal climate variability (DCV) on water and agricultural production in the basin are distinctly identifiable and characterizable. Stakeholders have clear notions about their needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. However, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. The first and foremost barrier is that the credibility ofDCOs is yet to be established. Second, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs are also articulated in this paper