Timely detection of bacterial meningitis epidemics at district level: a studyin three countries of the African Meningitis Belt

Background Bacterial meningitis is a major public health problem in the African ‘Meningitis Belt', where recurrent unpredictable epidemics occur. Despite the introduction in 2010 of the conjugate A vaccine, the reactive strategy remains important for responding to epidemics caused by other bacteria and in areas not yet vaccinated. Review of weekly numbers of suspected cases in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso identified spatial disparities in the annual patterns of meningitis, which suggested a more local way of defining epidemics and initiating a timely vaccination campaign. Method We defined an epidemic district-year as an excess of cases compared to the incidence previously experienced in the given district. Groups of similar districts in terms of seasonal patterns were identified by cluster analysis. We investigated a cluster-specific criterion of early epidemic onset to anticipate epidemic district-years. Results These were encouraging, as epidemic district-years were fairly efficiently captured, with an average time gained of 2.5 weeks over the current strategy. Conclusion This early-onset criterion could help ensure timely implementation of vaccination campaigns without the need to modify the implemented surveillance system. The next step is to extend this study to other countries of the Meningitis Belt, and to explain the differences in seasonal patterns in the different cluster

Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa

West African countries are hit annually by meningitis outbreaks which occur during the dry season and are linked to atmospheric variability. This paper describes an innovative co-production process between the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD; forecast producer) and the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO; forecast user) to support awareness, preparedness and response actions for meningitis outbreaks. Using sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, this co-production enables ACMAD and WHO AFRO to build initiative that increases the production of useful climate services in the health sector. Temperature and relative humidity forecasts are combined with dust forecasts to operationalize a meningitis early warning system (MEWS) across the African meningitis belt with a two-week lead time. To prevent and control meningitis, the MEWS is produced from week 1 to 26 of the year. This study demonstrates that S2S forecasts have good skill at predicting dry and warm atmospheric conditions precede meningitis outbreaks. Vigilance levels objectively defined within the MEWS are consistent with reported cases of meningitis. Alongside developing a MEWS, the co-production process provided a framework for analysis of climate and environmental risks based on reanalysis data, meningitis burden, and health service assessment, to support the development of a qualitative roadmap of country prioritization for defeating meningitis by 2030 across the WHO African region. The roadmap has enabled the identification of countries most vulnerable to meningitis epidemics, and in the context of climate change, supports plans for preventing, preparing, and responding to meningitis outbreaks

Emergence of epidemic Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C in Niger, 2015: an analysis of national surveillance data.

International audienceTo combat Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A epidemics in the meningitis belt of sub-Saharan Africa, a meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) has been progressively rolled out since 2010. We report the first meningitis epidemic in Niger since the nationwide introduction of MACV. We compiled and analysed nationwide case-based meningitis surveillance data in Niger. Cases were confirmed by culture or direct real-time PCR, or both, of cerebrospinal fluid specimens, and whole-genome sequencing was used to characterise isolates. Information on vaccination campaigns was collected by the Niger Ministry of Health and WHO. From Jan 1 to June 30, 2015, 9367 suspected meningitis cases and 549 deaths were reported in Niger. Among 4301 cerebrospinal fluid specimens tested, 1603 (37·3%) were positive for a bacterial pathogen, including 1147 (71·5%) that were positive for N meningitidis serogroup C (NmC). Whole-genome sequencing of 77 NmC isolates revealed the strain to be ST-10217. Although vaccination campaigns were limited in scope because of a global vaccine shortage, 1·4 million people were vaccinated from March to June, 2015. This epidemic represents the largest global NmC outbreak so far and shows the continued threat of N meningitidis in sub-Saharan Africa. The risk of further regional expansion of this novel clone highlights the need for continued strengthening of case-based surveillance. The availability of an affordable, multivalent conjugate vaccine may be important in future epidemic response. MenAfriNet consortium, a partnership between the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WHO, and Agence de Médecine Preventive, through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation