Pre-pandemic cognitive function and COVID-19 mortality:Prospective cohort study

Poorer performance on standard tests of pre-morbid cognitive function is related to an elevated risk of death from lower respiratory tract infections but the link with coronavirus (COVID‑19) mortality is untested. Participants in UK Biobank, aged 40 to 69 years at study induction (2006–10), were administered a reaction time test, an indicator of information processing speed, and also had their verbal-numeric reasoning assessed. Between April 1st and September 23rd 2020 there were 388 registry-confirmed deaths (138 women) ascribed to COVID-19 in 494,932 individuals (269,602 women) with a reaction time test result, and 125 such deaths (38 women) in the subgroup of 180,198 people (97,794 women) with data on verbal-numeric reasoning. In analyses adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity, a one standard deviation slower reaction time was related to a higher rate of death from COVID-19 (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.18; 1.09, 1.28), as was a one standard deviation disadvantage on the verbal-numeric reasoning test (1.32; 1.09, 1.59). While there was some attenuation in these relationships after adjustment for additional covariates which included socio-economic status and lifestyle factors, the two pre-pandemic indicators of cognitive function continued to be related to COVID-19 mortality

Climate tolerances and trait choices shape continental patterns of urban tree biodiversity

Aim: We propose and test a climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis of urban macroecological variation in which strong filtering associated with low winter temperatures restricts urban biodiversity while weak filtering associated with warmer temperatures and irrigation allows dispersal of species from a global source pool, thereby increasing urban biodiversity. Location: Twenty cities across the USA and Canada. Methods: We examined variation in tree community taxonomic diversity, origins and production of an aesthetic ecosystem service trait in a cross-section of urban field surveys. We correlated urban tree community composition indicators with a key climate restriction, namely mean minimum winter temperature, and evaluated alternative possible drivers: precipitation, summer maximum temperature, population size and the percentage of adults with a college education. Results: Species accumulation curves differed substantially among cities, with observed richness varying from 22 to 122 species. Similarities in tree communities decreased exponentially with increases in climatic differences. Ordination of tree communities showed strong separation among cities with component axes correlated with minimum winter temperature and annual precipitation. Variation among urban tree communities in richness, origins and the provisioning of an aesthetic ecosystem service were all correlated with minimum winter temperature. Main conclusions: The urban climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis provides a coherent mechanism to explain the large variation among urban tree communities resulting from an interacting environment, species and human decisions. Reconciling the feedbacks between human decision making and biophysical limitations provides a foundation for an urban ecological theory that can better understand and predict the dynamics of other linked biotic communities, associated ecosystem dynamics and resulting services provided to urban residents

Qualitative study exploring the phenomenon of multiple electronic prescribing systems within single hospital organisations

BACKGROUND: A previous census of electronic prescribing (EP) systems in England showed that more than half of hospitals with EP reported more than one EP system within the same hospital. Our objectives were to describe the rationale for having multiple EP systems within a single hospital, and to explore perceptions of stakeholders about the advantages and disadvantages of multiple systems including any impact on patient safety. METHODS: Hospitals were selected from previous census respondents. A decision matrix was developed to achieve a maximum variation sample, and snowball sampling used to recruit stakeholders of different professional backgrounds. We then used an a priori framework to guide and analyse semi-structured interviews. RESULTS: Ten participants, comprising pharmacists and doctors and a nurse, were interviewed from four hospitals. The findings suggest that use of multiple EP systems was not strategically planned. Three co-existing models of EP systems adoption in hospitals were identified: organisation-led, clinician-led and clinical network-led, which may have contributed to multiple systems use. Although there were some perceived benefits of multiple EP systems, particularly in niche specialities, many disadvantages were described. These included issues related to access, staff training, workflow, work duplication, and system interfacing. Fragmentation of documentation of the patient's journey was a major safety concern. DISCUSSION: The complexity of EP systems' adoption and deficiencies in IT strategic planning may have contributed to multiple EP systems use in the NHS. In the near to mid-term, multiple EP systems may remain in place in many English hospitals, which may create challenges to quality and patient safety.Peer reviewe

Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS based cellular automata and SLEUTH models: the case of Sana'a metropolitan city, Yemen.

An effective and efficient planning of an urban growth and land use changes and its impact on the environment requires information about growth trends and patterns amongst other important information. Over the years, many urban growth models have been developed and used in the developed countries for forecasting growth patterns. In the developing countries however, there exist a very few studies showing the application of these models and their performances. In this study two models such as cellular automata (CA) and the SLEUTH models are applied in a geographical information system (GIS) to simulate and predict the urban growth and land use change for the City of Sana’a (Yemen) for the period 2004–2020. GIS based maps were generated for the urban growth pattern of the city which was further analyzed using geo-statistical techniques. During the models calibration process, a total of 35 years of time series dataset such as historical topographical maps, aerial photographs and satellite imageries was used to identify the parameters that influenced the urban growth. The validation result showed an overall accuracy of 99.6 %; with the producer’s accuracy of 83.3 % and the user’s accuracy 83.6 %. The SLEUTH model used the best fit growth rule parameters during the calibration to forecasting future urban growth pattern and generated various probability maps in which the individual grid cells are urbanized assuming unique “urban growth signatures”. The models generated future urban growth pattern and land use changes from the period 2004–2020. Both models proved effective in forecasting growth pattern that will be useful in planning and decision making. In comparison, the CA model growth pattern showed high density development, in which growth edges were filled and clusters were merged together to form a compact built-up area wherein less agricultural lands were included. On the contrary, the SLEUTH model growth pattern showed more urban sprawl and low-density development that included substantial areas of agricultural lands

Analysis of Canadian and Irish forage, oats and commercially available equine concentrate feed for pathogenic fungi and mycotoxins

Respiratory infections, recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) and exercise induced pulmonary haemorrhage (EIPH) are major causes of poor performance in horses. Fungi and mycotoxins are now recognised as a major cause of these conditions. The most notable fungi are Aspergillus and Fusarium. Fungal spores can originate from forage, bedding and feed and, in turn, these fungal spores can produce a series of mycotoxins as secondary metabolites

Explicit Model Checking of Very Large MDP using Partitioning and Secondary Storage

The applicability of model checking is hindered by the state space explosion problem in combination with limited amounts of main memory. To extend its reach, the large available capacities of secondary storage such as hard disks can be exploited. Due to the specific performance characteristics of secondary storage technologies, specialised algorithms are required. In this paper, we present a technique to use secondary storage for probabilistic model checking of Markov decision processes. It combines state space exploration based on partitioning with a block-iterative variant of value iteration over the same partitions for the analysis of probabilistic reachability and expected-reward properties. A sparse matrix-like representation is used to store partitions on secondary storage in a compact format. All file accesses are sequential, and compression can be used without affecting runtime. The technique has been implemented within the Modest Toolset. We evaluate its performance on several benchmark models of up to 3.5 billion states. In the analysis of time-bounded properties on real-time models, our method neutralises the state space explosion induced by the time bound in its entirety.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24953-7_1

Ten per cent polarized optical emission from GRB 090102

The nature of the jets and the role of magnetic fields in gamma-ray bursts (GRB) remains unclear. In a baryon-dominated jet only weak, tangled fields generated in situ through shocks would be present. In an alternative model, jets are threaded with large scale magnetic fields that originate at the central engine and which accelerate and collimate the jets. The way to distinguish between the models is to measure the degree of polarization in early-time emission, however previous claims of gamma-ray polarization have been controversial. Here we report that the early optical emission from GRB 090102 was polarized at the level of P=10+/-1%, indicating the presence of large-scale fields originating in the expanding fireball. If the degree of polarization and its position angle were variable on timescales shorter than our 60-s exposure, then the peak polarization may have been larger than 10 per cent.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures. Published in Nature (2009), Vol. 462, p767-76

Nanoscale phase-engineering of thermal transport with a Josephson heat modulator

Macroscopic quantum phase coherence has one of its pivotal expressions in the Josephson effect [1], which manifests itself both in charge [2] and energy transport [3-5]. The ability to master the amount of heat transferred through two tunnel-coupled superconductors by tuning their phase difference is the core of coherent caloritronics [4-6], and is expected to be a key tool in a number of nanoscience fields, including solid state cooling [7], thermal isolation [8, 9], radiation detection [7], quantum information [10, 11] and thermal logic [12]. Here we show the realization of the first balanced Josephson heat modulator [13] designed to offer full control at the nanoscale over the phase-coherent component of thermal currents. Our device provides magnetic-flux-dependent temperature modulations up to 40 mK in amplitude with a maximum of the flux-to-temperature transfer coefficient reaching 200 mK per flux quantum at a bath temperature of 25 mK. Foremost, it demonstrates the exact correspondence in the phase-engineering of charge and heat currents, breaking ground for advanced caloritronic nanodevices such as thermal splitters [14], heat pumps [15] and time-dependent electronic engines [16-19].Comment: 6+ pages, 4 color figure