The Eccentricity Distribution of Short-Period Planet Candidates Detected by Kepler in Occultation

We characterize the eccentricity distribution of a sample of ~50 short-period planet candidates using transit and occultation measurements from NASA's Kepler Mission. First, we evaluate the sensitivity of our hierarchical Bayesian modeling and test its robustness to model misspecification using simulated data. When analyzing actual data assuming a Rayleigh distribution for eccentricity, we find that the posterior mode for the dispersion parameter is $\sigma=0.081 \pm^{0.014}_{0.003}$. We find that a two-component Gaussian mixture model for $e \cos \omega$ and $e \sin \omega$ provides a better model than either a Rayleigh or Beta distribution. Based on our favored model, we find that $\sim90\%$ of planet candidates in our sample come from a population with an eccentricity distribution characterized by a small dispersion ($\sim0.01$), and $\sim10\%$ come from a population with a larger dispersion ($\sim0.22$). Finally, we investigate how the eccentricity distribution correlates with selected planet and host star parameters. We find evidence that suggests systems around higher metallicity stars and planet candidates with smaller radii come from a more complex eccentricity distribution.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Realizing the potential of astrostatistics and astroinformatics

This Astro2020 State of the Profession Consideration White Paper highlights the growth of astrostatistics and astroinformatics in astronomy, identifies key issues hampering the maturation of these new subfields, and makes recommendations for structural improvements at different levels that, if acted upon, will make significant positive impacts across astronomy

The Association of Antarctic Krill Euphausia superba with the Under-Ice Habitat

The association of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba with the under-ice habitat was investigated in the Lazarev Sea (Southern Ocean) during austral summer, autumn and winter. Data were obtained using novel Surface and Under Ice Trawls (SUIT), which sampled the 0–2 m surface layer both under sea ice and in open water. Average surface layer densities ranged between 0.8 individuals m−2 in summer and autumn, and 2.7 individuals m−2 in winter. In summer, under-ice densities of Antarctic krill were significantly higher than in open waters. In autumn, the opposite pattern was observed. Under winter sea ice, densities were often low, but repeatedly far exceeded summer and autumn maxima. Statistical models showed that during summer high densities of Antarctic krill in the 0–2 m layer were associated with high ice coverage and shallow mixed layer depths, among other factors. In autumn and winter, density was related to hydrographical parameters. Average under-ice densities from the 0–2 m layer were higher than corresponding values from the 0–200 m layer collected with Rectangular Midwater Trawls (RMT) in summer. In winter, under-ice densities far surpassed maximum 0–200 m densities on several occasions. This indicates that the importance of the ice-water interface layer may be under-estimated by the pelagic nets and sonars commonly used to estimate the population size of Antarctic krill for management purposes, due to their limited ability to sample this habitat. Our results provide evidence for an almost year-round association of Antarctic krill with the under-ice habitat, hundreds of kilometres into the ice-covered area of the Lazarev Sea. Local concentrations of postlarval Antarctic krill under winter sea ice suggest that sea ice biota are important for their winter survival. These findings emphasise the susceptibility of an ecological key species to changing sea ice habitats, suggesting potential ramifications on Antarctic ecosystems induced by climate change