Quantifying the Economic Costs of Global Warming

Climate change poses a threat to the well-being of people across the globe. Rising global temperatures will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events, threatening the lives and livelihoods of vulnerable people. Yet the magnitude and persistence of these economic impacts are poorly understood, making it difficult both to design equitable mitigation and adaptation strategies and to hold emitters accountable for the impacts of their emissions. In this thesis, I combine methods from detection and attribution, climate projection, and causal inference to understand the global economic consequences of past and future climate change. I show that two extreme climate events that have not been previously integrated into climate-economy analyses---heat waves and El Niño events---reduce economic growth globally. But these impacts are highly unequal across the globe: Heat waves have their greatest effects in warm regions, and El Niño events primarily harm highly teleconnected countries. As a result, these effects fall most severely on the people that have contributed least to warming, a sign of the inequities embedded in the causes and consequences of global warming. To quantitively understand these inequities and support efforts to hold major emitters accountable for the impacts of their emissions, I develop an end-to-end attribution framework that links individual emitters to the economic effects of the warming induced by their emissions. I show that warming from the emissions of high-income countries in the global North have driven billions of dollars of economic losses in low-income, low-emitting countries. I then combine this framework with my previous results on extreme heat, showing that the emissions of major fossil fuel firms have intensified heat waves, and the resulting economic penalties, across the global tropics. These first-of-their-kind results lend scientific support to emerging discussions over climate liability and loss and damage payments. More broadly, these findings together highlight the already-emerging economic threat of global warming, raising the importance of climate mitigation and adaptation in order to avoid accelerating losses to the most vulnerable people around the globe

Does Body Mass Index Modify Memory, Reasoning, and Speed of Processing Training Effects in Older Adults

Objective To describe 10-year trajectories of cognitive performance by body mass index (BMI) class and to investigate BMI differences in response to memory, reasoning, and speed of processing training in older adults. Methods This is a secondary analysis of the multisite, randomized trial Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly. There were 701 older adults with normal weight, 1,081 with overweight, and 902 with obesity (mean age 73.6) randomized to memory training, reasoning training, speed of processing training, or no-training control group. Participants completed memory, reasoning, and speed of processing tests. Baseline sociodemographic, health, and chronic disease measures were included as covariates in analyses. Results The 10-year trajectories of memory, reasoning, or speed of processing performance did not differ by BMI status among the participants randomized to the untrained control arm. The training effect on the reasoning and speed of processing outcomes did not differ by BMI status. The training effect on the memory outcome in participants with a BMI indicating obesity, however, was just 38% of that observed in participants with normal-weight BMI. Conclusions These analyses of data from the largest trial of cognitive training ever conducted suggest that older adults with obesity may be less responsive to memory training

Depression and Anxiety Screens as Predictors of 8-Year Incidence of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke in Primary Care Patients

Because depression and anxiety are typically studied in isolation, our purpose was to examine the relative importance of these overlapping emotional factors in predicting incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods We examined depression and anxiety screens, and their individual items, as predictors of incident hard CVD events, myocardial infarction, and stroke over eight years in a diverse sample of 2,041 older primary care patients initially free of CVD. At baseline, participants completed self-report depression and anxiety screens. Data regarding CVD events were obtained from an electronic medical record system and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services analytic files. Results During follow-up, 683 (33%) experienced a CVD event. Cox proportional hazards models – adjusted for demographic and CVD risk factors – revealed that a positive anxiety screen, but not a positive depression screen, was associated with an increased risk of a hard CVD event in separate models (Years 0–3: Anxiety HR=1.54, p<.001; Years 3+: Anxiety HR=0.99, p=.93; Depression HR=1.10, p=.41), as well as when entered into the same model (Years 0–3: Anxiety HR=1.53, p<.001; Years 3+: Anxiety HR=0.99, p=.99; Depression HR=1.03, p=.82). Analyses examining individual items and secondary outcomes showed that the anxiety-CVD association was largely driven by the feeling anxious item and the myocardial infarction outcome. Conclusions Anxiety, especially feeling anxious, is a unique risk factor for CVD events in older adults, independent of conventional risk factors and depression. Anxiety deserves increased attention as a potential factor relevant to CVD risk stratification and a potential target of CVD primary prevention efforts

Addressing the unmet need for visualizing Conditional Random Fields in Biological Data

Background: The biological world is replete with phenomena that appear to be ideally modeled and analyzed by one archetypal statistical framework - the Graphical Probabilistic Model (GPM). The structure of GPMs is a uniquely good match for biological problems that range from aligning sequences to modeling the genome-to-phenome relationship. The fundamental questions that GPMs address involve making decisions based on a complex web of interacting factors. Unfortunately, while GPMs ideally fit many questions in biology, they are not an easy solution to apply. Building a GPM is not a simple task for an end user. Moreover, applying GPMs is also impeded by the insidious fact that the complex web of interacting factors inherent to a problem might be easy to define and also intractable to compute upon. Discussion: We propose that the visualization sciences can contribute to many domains of the bio-sciences, by developing tools to address archetypal representation and user interaction issues in GPMs, and in particular a variety of GPM called a Conditional Random Field(CRF). CRFs bring additional power, and additional complexity, because the CRF dependency network can be conditioned on the query data. Conclusions: In this manuscript we examine the shared features of several biological problems that are amenable to modeling with CRFs, highlight the challenges that existing visualization and visual analytics paradigms induce for these data, and document an experimental solution called StickWRLD which, while leaving room for improvement, has been successfully applied in several biological research projects.Comment: BioVis 2014 conferenc

Categorizing Health Outcomes and Efficacy of mHealth Apps for Persons With Cognitive Impairment: A Systematic Review

Background Use of mobile health (mHealth) apps is growing at an exponential rate in the United States and around the world. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI), Alzheimer disease, and related dementias are a global health problem. Numerous mHealth interventions exist for this population, yet the effect of these interventions on health has not been systematically described. Objective The aim of this study is to catalog the types of health outcomes used to measure effectiveness of mHealth interventions and assess which mHealth interventions have been shown to improve the health of persons with MCI, Alzheimer disease, and dementia. Methods We searched 13 databases, including Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, the full Cochrane Library, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Ei Compendex, IEEE Xplore, Applied Science & Technology Source, Scopus, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Google Scholar from inception through May 2017 for mHealth studies involving persons with cognitive impairment that were evaluated using at least one quantitative health outcome. Proceedings of the Annual ACM Conferences on Human Factors in Computing Systems, the ACM User Interface Software and Technology Symposium, and the IEEE International Symposium on Wearable Computers were searched in the ACM Digital Library from 2012 to 2016. A hand search of JMIR Publications journals was also completed in July 2017. Results After removal of duplicates, our initial search returned 3955 records. Of these articles, 24 met final inclusion criteria as studies involving mHealth interventions that measured at least one quantitative health outcome for persons with MCI, Alzheimer disease, and dementia. Common quantitative health outcomes included cognition, function, mood, and quality of life. We found that 21.2% (101/476) of the fully reviewed articles were excluded because of a lack of health outcomes. The health outcomes selected were observed to be inconsistent between studies. For those studies with quantitative health outcomes, more than half (58%) reported postintervention improvements in outcomes. Conclusions Results showed that many mHealth app interventions targeting those with cognitive impairment lack quantitative health outcomes as a part of their evaluation process and that there is a lack of consensus as to which outcomes to use. The majority of mHealth app interventions that incorporated health outcomes into their evaluation noted improvements in the health of persons with MCI, Alzheimer disease, and dementia. However, these studies were of low quality, leading to a grade C level of evidence. Clarification of the benefits of mHealth interventions for people with cognitive impairment requires more randomized controlled trials, larger numbers of participants, and trial designs that minimize bias. Trial Registration PROSPERO Registration: PROSPERO 2016:CRD42016033846; http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ display_record.asp?ID=CRD42016033846 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6sjjwnv1M

Antihypertensive Medication and Dementia Risk in Older Adult African Americans with Hypertension: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: African Americans are especially at risk of hypertension and dementia. Antihypertensive medications reduce the risk of cardiovascular events, but may also reduce the risk of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To assess the longitudinal effects of antihypertensive medications and blood pressure on the onset of incident dementia in a cohort of African Americans. DESIGN: Prospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS: 1236 community-dwelling patients from an inner-city public health care system, aged 65 years and older, with a history of hypertension but no history of dementia, and who had at least three primary care visits and a prescription filled for any medication. MAIN MEASURES: Blood pressure was the average of three seated measurements. Dementia was diagnosed using a two-stage design, with a screening evaluation every 2 to 3 years followed by a comprehensive in-home clinical evaluation for those with a positive screen. Laboratory, inpatient and outpatient encounter data, coded diagnoses and procedures, and medication records were derived from a health information exchange. KEY RESULTS: Of the 1236 hypertensive participants without dementia at baseline, 114 (9%) developed incident dementia during follow-up. Individuals prescribed any antihypertensive medication (n = 816) were found to have a significantly reduced risk of dementia (HR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.37-0.88, p = 0.0114) compared to untreated hypertensive participants (n = 420). When this analysis was repeated including a variable indicating suboptimally treated blood pressure (> 140 mmHg systolic or >90 mmHg diastolic), the effect of antihypertensive medication was no longer statistically significant (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.32-1.30, p = 0.2217). CONCLUSIONS: Control of blood pressure in older adult African American patients with hypertension is a key intervention for preventing dementia, with similar benefits from most of the commonly available antihypertensive medications

APOE ε4 and the risk for Alzheimer disease and cognitive decline in African Americans and Yoruba

Background There is little information on the association of the APOEe4 allele and AD risk in African populations. In previous analyses from the Indianapolis-Ibadan dementia project, we have reported that APOE ε4 increased the risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in African Americans but not in Yoruba. This study represents a replication of this earlier work using enriched cohorts and extending the analysis to include cognitive decline. Methods In this longitudinal study of two community dwelling cohorts of elderly Yoruba and African Americans, APOE genotyping was conducted from blood samples taken on or before 2001 (1,871 African Americans & 2,200 Yoruba). Mean follow up time was 8.5 years for African Americans and 8.8 years for Yoruba. The effects of heterozygosity or homozygosity of ε4 and of the possession of e4 on time to incident AD and on cognitive decline were determined using Cox’s proportional hazards regression and mixed effects models. Results After adjusting for covariates, one or two copies of the APOE ε4 allele were significant risk factors for incident AD (p < 0.0001) and cognitive decline in the African-American population (p < 0001). In the Yoruba, only homozygosity for APOE ε4 was a significant risk factor for AD (p = 0.0002) but not for cognitive decline (p = 0.2346), however, possession of an e4 allele was significant for both incident AD (p = 0.0489) and cognitive decline (p = 0.0425). Conclusions In this large longitudinal comparative study, APOE ε4 had a significant, but weaker, effect on incident AD and on cognitive decline in Yoruba than in African Americans. The reasons for these differences remain unclear

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

Stone formation in peach fruit exhibits spatial coordination of the lignin and flavonoid pathways and similarity to Arabidopsis dehiscence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Lignification of the fruit endocarp layer occurs in many angiosperms and plays a critical role in seed protection and dispersal. This process has been extensively studied with relationship to pod shatter or dehiscence in <it>Arabidopsis</it>. Dehiscence is controlled by a set of transcription factors that define the fruit tissue layers and whether or not they lignify. In contrast, relatively little is known about similar processes in other plants such as stone fruits which contain an extremely hard lignified endocarp or stone surrounding a single seed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here we show that lignin deposition in peach initiates near the blossom end within the endocarp layer and proceeds in a distinct spatial-temporal pattern. Microarray studies using a developmental series from young fruits identified a sharp and transient induction of phenylpropanoid, lignin and flavonoid pathway genes concurrent with lignification and subsequent stone hardening. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction studies revealed that specific phenylpropanoid (phenylalanine ammonia-lyase and cinnamate 4-hydroxylase) and lignin (caffeoyl-CoA O-methyltransferase, peroxidase and laccase) pathway genes were induced in the endocarp layer over a 10 day time period, while two lignin genes (<it>p-</it>coumarate 3-hydroxylase and cinnamoyl CoA reductase) were co-regulated with flavonoid pathway genes (chalcone synthase, dihydroflavanol 4-reductase, leucoanthocyanidin dioxygen-ase and flavanone-3-hydrosylase) which were mesocarp and exocarp specific. Analysis of other fruit development expression studies revealed that flavonoid pathway induction is conserved in the related Rosaceae species apple while lignin pathway induction is not. The transcription factor expression of peach genes homologous to known endocarp determinant genes in <it>Arabidopsis </it>including <it>SHATTERPROOF</it>, <it>SEEDSTCK </it>and <it>NAC SECONDARY WALL THICENING PROMOTING FACTOR 1 </it>were found to be specifically expressed in the endocarp while the negative regulator <it>FRUITFU</it>L predominated in exocarp and mesocarp.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Collectively, the data suggests, first, that the process of endocarp determination and differentiation in peach and <it>Arabidopsis </it>share common regulators and, secondly, reveals a previously unknown coordination of competing lignin and flavonoid biosynthetic pathways during early fruit development.</p

Origin and Evolution of Prebiotic Organic Matter as Inferred from the Tagish Lake Meteorite

The complex suite of organic materials in carbonaceous chondrite meteorites probably originally formed in the interstellar medium and/or the solar protoplanetary disk, but was subsequently modified in the meteorites' asteroidal parent bodies. The mechanisms of formation and modification are still very poorly understood. We carried out a systematic study of variations in the mineralogy, petrology, and soluble and insoluble organic matter in distinct fragments of the Tagish Lake meteorite. The variations correlate with indicators of parent body aqueous alteration and at least some molecules of pre-biotic importance formed during the alteration