Prediction, Retrodiction, and The Amount of Information Stored in the Present

We introduce an ambidextrous view of stochastic dynamical systems, comparing their forward-time and reverse-time representations and then integrating them into a single time-symmetric representation. The perspective is useful theoretically, computationally, and conceptually. Mathematically, we prove that the excess entropy--a familiar measure of organization in complex systems--is the mutual information not only between the past and future, but also between the predictive and retrodictive causal states. Practically, we exploit the connection between prediction and retrodiction to directly calculate the excess entropy. Conceptually, these lead one to discover new system invariants for stochastic dynamical systems: crypticity (information accessibility) and causal irreversibility. Ultimately, we introduce a time-symmetric representation that unifies all these quantities, compressing the two directional representations into one. The resulting compression offers a new conception of the amount of information stored in the present.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 1 table; http://users.cse.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/pratisp.ht

Information Accessibility and Cryptic Processes: Linear Combinations of Causal States

We show in detail how to determine the time-reversed representation of a stationary hidden stochastic process from linear combinations of its forward-time $\epsilon$-machine causal states. This also gives a check for the $k$-cryptic expansion recently introduced to explore the temporal range over which internal state information is spread.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; http://users.cse.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/iacplcocs.ht

The Contexts of Conversion among U.S. Latinos

The growth of Protestantism among U.S. Latinos has been the focus of considerable discussion among researchers. Yet few studies investigate how Latino Protestants and Latino Catholics differ, or which types of Latinos convert from Catholicism to Protestantism. Our study tests various theories about why some Latinos convert including a modified version of the semi-involuntary thesis, the national origin hypothesis, and assimilation theory. We use data from a large national sample of U.S. Latinos and find some support for assimilation theory and less for the semi-involuntary thesis. However, context matters. If we divide Latinos into national origin groups, these groups strongly predict who converts and who are lifelong Protestants. We discuss how war may influence the religious composition of early migrants and thus shape both the religious composition and conversion of later migrants

Attitudes toward Marriage, Divorce, Cohabitation, and Casual Sex among Working-Age Latinos: Does Religion Matter?

The rapid growth of the Latino population in the United States has renewed interest in Latino family research. It has often been assumed that Catholicism is a key factor influencing Latinos’ attitudes toward the family, despite the fact that nearly one third of Latinos are not Catholic. This article uses data from the 2006 National Survey of Religion and Family Life, a survey of working-age adults (aged 18-59 years) in the lower 48 states, to explore the relationship between multiple dimensions of religiosity—denomination, church attendance, prayer, and beliefs about the Bible—and Latinos’ attitudes regarding marriage, divorce, cohabitation, and casual sex. Compared with Catholics, evangelical Protestants tend to hold more conservative attitudes on family-related issues. Latinos who attend services regularly and pray frequently also report more traditional views. Findings involving literalist views of the Bible are more equivocal. Taken together, religious variables are just as potent as socioeconomic and demographic factors in explaining individual-level variation in Latinos’ attitudes. Study limitations are noted, and several directions for future research are identified

Religion and Attitudes toward Same-Sex Marriage among U.S. Latinos

Objectives. This study examines links between multiple aspects of religious involvement and attitudes toward same-sex marriage among U.S. Latinos. The primary focus is on variations by affiliation and participation, but the possible mediating roles of biblical beliefs, clergy cues, and the role of religion in shaping political views are also considered. Methods. We use binary logistic regression models to analyze data from a large nationwide sample of U.S. Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Forum in late 2006. Results. Findings highlight the strong opposition to same-sex marriage among Latino evangelical (or conservative) Protestants and members of sectarian groups (e.g., LDS), even compared with devout Catholics. Although each of the hypothesized mediators is significantly linked with attitudes toward same-sex marriage, for the most part controlling for them does not alter the massive affiliation/attendance differences in attitudes toward same-sex marriage. Conclusions. This study illustrates the importance of religious cleavages in public opinion on social issues within the diverse U.S. Latino population. The significance of religious variations in Hispanic civic life is likely to increase with the growth of the Latino population and the rising numbers of Protestants and sectarians among Latinos

Understanding interdependency through complex information sharing

The interactions between three or more random variables are often nontrivial, poorly understood, and yet, are paramount for future advances in fields such as network information theory, neuroscience, genetics and many others. In this work, we propose to analyze these interactions as different modes of information sharing. Towards this end, we introduce a novel axiomatic framework for decomposing the joint entropy, which characterizes the various ways in which random variables can share information. The key contribution of our framework is to distinguish between interdependencies where the information is shared redundantly, and synergistic interdependencies where the sharing structure exists in the whole but not between the parts. We show that our axioms determine unique formulas for all the terms of the proposed decomposition for a number of cases of interest. Moreover, we show how these results can be applied to several network information theory problems, providing a more intuitive understanding of their fundamental limits.Comment: 39 pages, 4 figure

Period and Cohort Changes in Americans’ Support for Marijuana Legalization: Convergence and Divergence across Social Groups

We cast fresh light on how and why Americans’ views on marijuana legalization shifted between 1973 and 2014. Results from age-period-cohort models show a strong negative effect of age and relatively high levels of support for legalization among baby boom cohorts. Despite the baby boom effect, the large increase in support for marijuana legalization is predominantly a broad, period-based change in the population. Additional analyses demonstrate that differences in support for legalization by education, region, and religion decline, that differences by political party increase, and that differences between whites and African Americans reverse direction. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings and by identifying promising directions for future research on this topic

An Empirical Study of Pricing Strategies in an Online Market with High Frequency Price Information

We study competition among a score of firms participating in an online market for a commodity-type memory module. Firms were able to adjust prices continuously; prices determined how the firms were ranked and listed (lowest price listed first), with better ranks contributing to firms’ sales. Using a year’s worth of hourly data, we document the pricing dynamics, cycles, and other patterns in this market. We then characterize empirically the factors which drive price changes, noting clear evidence of firm heterogeneity in the choice of pricing strategy. Finally, we develop a framework for simulating counterfactual market settings, using the simulations to examine counterfactuals involving different mixes of firms according to pricing strategies