POMDPs under Probabilistic Semantics

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with limit-average payoff, where a reward value in the interval [0,1] is associated to every transition, and the payoff of an infinite path is the long-run average of the rewards. We consider two types of path constraints: (i) quantitative constraint defines the set of paths where the payoff is at least a given threshold lambda_1 in (0,1]; and (ii) qualitative constraint which is a special case of quantitative constraint with lambda_1=1. We consider the computation of the almost-sure winning set, where the controller needs to ensure that the path constraint is satisfied with probability 1. Our main results for qualitative path constraint are as follows: (i) the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is EXPTIME-complete; and (ii) the problem of deciding the existence of an infinite-memory controller is undecidable. For quantitative path constraint we show that the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is undecidable.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2013

Sensor Synthesis for POMDPs with Reachability Objectives

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are widely used in probabilistic planning problems in which an agent interacts with an environment using noisy and imprecise sensors. We study a setting in which the sensors are only partially defined and the goal is to synthesize "weakest" additional sensors, such that in the resulting POMDP, there is a small-memory policy for the agent that almost-surely (with probability~1) satisfies a reachability objective. We show that the problem is NP-complete, and present a symbolic algorithm by encoding the problem into SAT instances. We illustrate trade-offs between the amount of memory of the policy and the number of additional sensors on a simple example. We have implemented our approach and consider three classical POMDP examples from the literature, and show that in all the examples the number of sensors can be significantly decreased (as compared to the existing solutions in the literature) without increasing the complexity of the policies.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1511.0845

IST Austria Technical Report

We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) which are a standard model for probabilistic systems. We focus on qualitative properties for MDPs that can express that desired behaviors of the system arise almost-surely (with probability 1) or with positive probability. We introduce a new simulation relation to capture the refinement relation of MDPs with respect to qualitative properties, and present discrete graph theoretic algorithms with quadratic complexity to compute the simulation relation. We present an automated technique for assume-guarantee style reasoning for compositional analysis of MDPs with qualitative properties by giving a counter-example guided abstraction-refinement approach to compute our new simulation relation. We have implemented our algorithms and show that the compositional analysis leads to significant improvements

IST Austria Technical Report

POMDPs are standard models for probabilistic planning problems, where an agent interacts with an uncertain environment. We study the problem of almost-sure reachability, where given a set of target states, the question is to decide whether there is a policy to ensure that the target set is reached with probability 1 (almost-surely). While in general the problem is EXPTIME-complete, in many practical cases policies with a small amount of memory suffice. Moreover, the existing solution to the problem is explicit, which first requires to construct explicitly an exponential reduction to a belief-support MDP. In this work, we first study the existence of observation-stationary strategies, which is NP-complete, and then small-memory strategies. We present a symbolic algorithm by an efficient encoding to SAT and using a SAT solver for the problem. We report experimental results demonstrating the scalability of our symbolic (SAT-based) approach

IST Austria Technical Report

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with ω-regular conditions specified as parity objectives. The class of ω-regular languages extends regular languages to infinite strings and provides a robust specification language to express all properties used in verification, and parity objectives are canonical forms to express ω-regular conditions. The qualitative analysis problem given a POMDP and a parity objective asks whether there is a strategy to ensure that the objective is satis- fied with probability 1 (resp. positive probability). While the qualitative analysis problems are known to be undecidable even for very special cases of parity objectives, we establish decidability (with optimal complexity) of the qualitative analysis problems for POMDPs with all parity objectives under finite- memory strategies. We establish asymptotically optimal (exponential) memory bounds and EXPTIME- completeness of the qualitative analysis problems under finite-memory strategies for POMDPs with parity objectives

IST Austria Technical Report

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), that are a standard framework for robotics applications to model uncertainties present in the real world, with temporal logic specifications. All temporal logic specifications in linear-time temporal logic (LTL) can be expressed as parity objectives. We study the qualitative analysis problem for POMDPs with parity objectives that asks whether there is a controller (policy) to ensure that the objective holds with probability 1 (almost-surely). While the qualitative analysis of POMDPs with parity objectives is undecidable, recent results show that when restricted to finite-memory policies the problem is EXPTIME-complete. While the problem is intractable in theory, we present a practical approach to solve the qualitative analysis problem. We designed several heuristics to deal with the exponential complexity, and have used our implementation on a number of well-known POMDP examples for robotics applications. Our results provide the first practical approach to solve the qualitative analysis of robot motion planning with LTL properties in the presence of uncertainty

IST Austria Technical Report

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), that are a standard framework for robotics applications to model uncertainties present in the real world, with temporal logic specifications. All temporal logic specifications in linear-time temporal logic (LTL) can be expressed as parity objectives. We study the qualitative analysis problem for POMDPs with parity objectives that asks whether there is a controller (policy) to ensure that the objective holds with probability 1 (almost-surely). While the qualitative analysis of POMDPs with parity objectives is undecidable, recent results show that when restricted to finite-memory policies the problem is EXPTIME-complete. While the problem is intractable in theory, we present a practical approach to solve the qualitative analysis problem. We designed several heuristics to deal with the exponential complexity, and have used our implementation on a number of well-known POMDP examples for robotics applications. Our results provide the first practical approach to solve the qualitative analysis of robot motion planning with LTL properties in the presence of uncertainty

13.Expression of survivin in astrocytic tumors : correlation with malignant grade and prognosis

We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) which are a standard model for probabilistic systems. We focus on qualitative properties for MDPs that can express that desired behaviors of the system arise almost-surely (with probability 1) or with positive probability. We introduce a new simulation relation to capture the refinement relation of MDPs with respect to qualitative properties, and present discrete graph theoretic algorithms with quadratic complexity to compute the simulation relation. We present an automated technique for assume-guarantee style reasoning for compositional analysis of MDPs with qualitative properties by giving a counter-example guided abstraction-refinement approach to compute our new simulation relation. We have implemented our algorithms and show that the compositional analysis leads to significant improvements

Efficient Strategies for Calculating Blockwise Likelihoods under the Coalescent

The inference of demographic history from genome data is hindered by a lack of efficient computational approaches. In particular, it has proved difficult to exploit the information contained in the distribution of genealogies across the genome. We have previously shown that the generating function (GF) of genealogies can be used to analytically compute likelihoods of demographic models from configurations of mutations in short sequence blocks (Lohse et al. 2011). Although the GF has a simple, recursive form, the size of such likelihood calculations explodes quickly with the number of individuals and applications of this framework have so far been mainly limited to small samples (pairs and triplets) for which the GF can be written by hand. Here we investigate several strategies for exploiting the inherent symmetries of the coalescent. In particular, we show that the GF of genealogies can be decomposed into a set of equivalence classes that allows likelihood calculations from nontrivial samples. Using this strategy, we automated blockwise likelihood calculations for a general set of demographic scenarios in Mathematica. These histories may involve population size changes, continuous migration, discrete divergence, and admixture between multiple populations. To give a concrete example, we calculate the likelihood for a model of isolation with migration (IM), assuming two diploid samples without phase and outgroup information. We demonstrate the new inference scheme with an analysis of two individual butterfly genomes from the sister species Heliconius melpomene rosina and H. cydno

Lower Fasting Muscle Mitochondrial Activity Relates to Hepatic Steatosis in Humans

OBJECTIVE Muscle insulin resistance has been implicated in the development of steatosis and dyslipidemia by changing the partitioning of postprandial substrate fluxes. Also, insulin resistance may be due to reduced mitochondrial function. We examined the association between mitochondrial activity, insulin sensitivity, and steatosis in a larger human population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We analyzed muscle mitochondrial activity from ATP synthase flux (fATP) and ectopic lipids by multinuclei magnetic resonance spectroscopy from 113 volunteers with and without diabetes. Insulin sensitivity was assessed from M values using euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamps and/or from oral glucose insulin sensitivity (OGIS) using oral glucose tolerance tests. RESULTS Muscle fATP correlated negatively with hepatic lipid content and HbA1c. After model adjustment for study effects and other confounders, fATP showed a strong negative correlation with hepatic lipid content and a positive correlation with insulin sensitivity and fasting C-peptide. The negative correlation of muscle fATP with age, HbA1c, and plasma free fatty acids was weakened after adjustment. Body mass, muscle lipid contents, plasma lipoproteins, and triglycerides did not associate with fATP. CONCLUSIONS The association of impaired muscle mitochondrial activity with hepatic steatosis supports the concept of a close link between altered muscle and liver energy metabolism as early abnormalities promoting insulin resistance