Percutaneous Revascularisation for Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction : Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the REVIVED-BCIS2 Trial

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is frequently undertaken in patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ILVD). The REVIVED-BCIS2 trial concluded that PCI did not reduce the incidence of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization, however patients assigned to PCI reported better initial health-related quality of life than those assigned to optimal medical therapy (OMT) alone. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PCI+OMT compared with OMT alone. Methods: REVIVED-BCIS2 was a prospective, multi-centre UK trial, which randomized patients with severe ILVD to either PCI+OMT or OMT alone. Healthcare resource use (including planned and unplanned revascularizations, medication, device implantation and HF hospitalizations) and health outcomes data (EQ-5D-5L questionnaire) on each patient were collected at baseline and up to 8 years post-randomization. Resource use was costed using publicly available national unit costs. Within trial mean total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated from the perspective of the UK health system. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using estimated mean costs and QALYs in both groups. Regression analysis was used to adjust for clinically relevant predictors. Results: Between 2013 and 2020, 700 patients were recruited (mean age: PCI+OMT=70, OMT=68; male (%): PCI+OMT=87, OMT=88); median follow up was 3.4 years. Over all follow-up, patients undergoing PCI yielded similar health benefits at higher costs compared to OMT alone (PCI+OMT: 4.14 QALYs, £22,352; OMT alone: 4.16 QALYs; £15,569; Difference: -0.015; £6,782). For both groups most health resource consumption occurred in the first 2 years post-randomization. Probabilistic results showed that the probability of PCI being cost-effective was 0. Conclusions: Minimal difference in total QALYs was identified between arms and PCI+OMT was not cost-effective compared to OMT, given its additional cost. A strategy of routine PCI to treat ILVD does not appear to be a justifiable use of healthcare resource in the UK. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ Unique Identifier: NCT01920048

Understanding the social determinants of child mortality in Latin America over the last two decades : a machine learning approach

The reduction of child mortality rates remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in regions with high levels of inequality such as Latin America. We used machine learning (ML) algorithms to explore the relationship between social determinants and child under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico over two decades. We created a municipal-level cohort from 2000 to 2019 and trained a random forest model (RF) to estimate the relative importance of social determinants in predicting U5MR. We conducted a sensitivity analysis training two more ML models and presenting the mean square error, root mean square error, and median absolute deviation. Our findings indicate that poverty, illiteracy, and the Gini index were the most important variables for predicting U5MR according to the RF. Furthermore, non-linear relationships were found mainly for Gini index and U5MR. Our study suggests that long-term public policies to reduce U5MR in Latin America should focus on reducing poverty, illiteracy, and socioeconomic inequalities. This research provides important insights into the relationships between social determinants and child mortality rates in Latin America. The use of ML algorithms, combined with large longitudinal data, allowed us to evaluate the effects of social determinants on health more carefully than traditional models

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries

Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in lowand middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average <US$ 5 per patient per year in the public sector. This health economic evidence will make a compelling case for government ownership and financial support for national scale hypertension control programs

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030

IMPORTANCE: Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. EXPOSURE: Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years). RESULTS: The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738 919 (95% CI, 695 641-782 104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153 601 (95% CI, 127 441-180 600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries

Percutaneous revascularization for ischemic left ventricular dysfunction: Cost-effectiveness analysis of the REVIVED-BCIS2 trial

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is frequently undertaken in patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The REVIVED (Revascularization for Ischemic Ventricular Dysfunction)-BCIS2 (British Cardiovascular Society-2) trial concluded that PCI did not reduce the incidence of all-cause death or heart failure hospitalization; however, patients assigned to PCI reported better initial health-related quality of life than those assigned to optimal medical therapy (OMT) alone. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PCI+OMT compared with OMT alone. METHODS: REVIVED-BCIS2 was a prospective, multicenter UK trial, which randomized patients with severe ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction to either PCI+OMT or OMT alone. Health care resource use (including planned and unplanned revascularizations, medication, device implantation, and heart failure hospitalizations) and health outcomes data (EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level questionnaire) on each patient were collected at baseline and up to 8 years post-randomization. Resource use was costed using publicly available national unit costs. Within the trial, mean total costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated from the perspective of the UK health system. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using estimated mean costs and QALYs in both groups. Regression analysis was used to adjust for clinically relevant predictors. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2020, 700 patients were recruited (mean age: PCI+OMT=70 years, OMT=68 years; male (%): PCI+OMT=87, OMT=88); median follow-up was 3.4 years. Over all follow-ups, patients undergoing PCI yielded similar health benefits at higher costs compared with OMT alone (PCI+OMT: 4.14 QALYs, £22 352; OMT alone: 4.16 QALYs, £15 569; difference: −0.015, £6782). For both groups, most health resource consumption occurred in the first 2 years post-randomization. Probabilistic results showed that the probability of PCI being cost-effective was 0. CONCLUSIONS: A minimal difference in total QALYs was identified between arms, and PCI+OMT was not cost-effective compared with OMT, given its additional cost. A strategy of routine PCI to treat ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction does not seem to be a justifiable use of health care resources in the United Kingdom

Modelos metapoblacionales básicos de transmisión de enfermedades infecciosas

<i>Capítulo 8 en el libro: Modelización matemática: principios y aplicaciones. Ed. Lucía Cervantes Gómez. Textos Científicos, Fomento Editorial de la Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, ISBN: 978-607-487-855-4.<br><br></i>Presentamos una introducción a modelos metapoblacionales de transmisión de enfermedades infecciosas. En breve, presentamos una forma de construir modelos metapoblacionales no autónomos que incluyen distanciamientos sociales en días específicos del año, tal como ocurrió en México durante el año 2009. La dinámica del modelo incluye cambios en el flujo de individuos entre distintas poblaciones que dependen de cuando ocurren los periodos vacacionales o los de clases. En particular, mostramos que la combinación de los cambios en el flujo y el distanciamiento social implementado por el gobierno al principio de la pandemia simulan adecuadamente las olas de influenza AH1N1 que ocurrieron durante el año 2009 en México.<i><br></i

Análisis cualitativo de modelos básicos de transmisión infecciosa

<div> <div> <div> <p>Este capítulo contiene una introducción a modelos básicos de transmisión de enfermedades infecciosas. Primero construimos una versión determinista y autónoma del modelo clásico SIR de transmisión infecciosa. Se definen algunas nociones básicas de epidemiología relacionadas con la transmisión de enfermedades infecciosas, junto con la deducción del modelo y las soluciones, analizadas cualitativamente. Se define la condición para una epidemia para después discutir, desde una perspectiva geométrica, conceptos básicos como la condición de epidemia en poblaciones totalmente susceptibles (condición llamada “número básico de reproducción”), epidemias en poblaciones parcialmente inmunes, y los efectos que puede tener la pérdida de inmunidad. Se analiza el caso particular de epidemias generadas por enfermedades incurables de larga duración y se deduce un modelo alternativo y simple con el que es posible hacer ajustes sencillos a partir del modelo SIR. Al final del capítulo se presentan posibles extensiones no-autónomas. </p> </div> </div> </div

Percutaneous Revascularisation for Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the REVIVED-BCIS2 Trial

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is frequently undertaken in patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ILVD). The REVIVED-BCIS2 trial concluded that PCI did not reduce the incidence of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization, however patients assigned to PCI reported better initial health-related quality of life than those assigned to optimal medical therapy (OMT) alone. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PCI+OMT compared with OMT alone. Methods: REVIVED-BCIS2 was a prospective, multi-centre UK trial, which randomized patients with severe ILVD to either PCI+OMT or OMT alone. Healthcare resource use (including planned and unplanned revascularizations, medication, device implantation and HF hospitalizations) and health outcomes data (EQ-5D-5L questionnaire) on each patient were collected at baseline and up to 8 years post-randomization. Resource use was costed using publicly available national unit costs. Within trial mean total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated from the perspective of the UK health system. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using estimated mean costs and QALYs in both groups. Regression analysis was used to adjust for clinically relevant predictors. Results: Between 2013 and 2020, 700 patients were recruited (mean age: PCI+OMT=70, OMT=68; male (%): PCI+OMT=87, OMT=88); median follow up was 3.4 years. Over all follow-up, patients undergoing PCI yielded similar health benefits at higher costs compared to OMT alone (PCI+OMT: 4.14 QALYs, £22,352; OMT alone: 4.16 QALYs; £15,569; Difference: -0.015; £6,782). For both groups most health resource consumption occurred in the first 2 years post-randomization. Probabilistic results showed that the probability of PCI being cost-effective was 0. Conclusions: Minimal difference in total QALYs was identified between arms and PCI+OMT was not cost-effective compared to OMT, given its additional cost. A strategy of routine PCI to treat ILVD does not appear to be a justifiable use of healthcare resource in the UK. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ Unique Identifier: NCT01920048

Retention in Care, Mortality, Loss-to-Follow-Up, and Viral Suppression among Antiretroviral Treatment-Na&iuml;ve and Experienced Persons Participating in a Nationally Representative HIV Pre-Treatment Drug Resistance Survey in Mexico

We describe associations of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) with clinical outcomes such as remaining in care, loss to follow-up (LTFU), viral suppression, and death in Mexico, in real-life clinical settings. We analyzed clinical outcomes after a two-year follow up period in participants of a large 2017&ndash;2018 nationally representative PDR survey cross-referenced with information of the national ministry of health HIV database. Participants were stratified according to prior ART exposure and presence of efavirenz/nevirapine PDR. Using a Fine-Gray model, we evaluated virological suppression among resistant patients, in a context of competing risk with lost to follow-up and death. A total of 1823 participants were followed-up by a median of 1.88 years (Interquartile Range (IQR): 1.59&ndash;2.02): 20 (1%) were classified as experienced + resistant; 165 (9%) na&iuml;ve + resistant; 211 (11%) experienced + non-resistant; and 1427 (78%) as na&iuml;ve + non-resistant. Being ART-experienced was associated with a lower probability of remaining in care (adjusted Hazard Ratio(aHR) = 0.68, 0.53&ndash;0.86, for the non-resistant group and aHR = 0.37, 0.17&ndash;0.84, for the resistant group, compared to the na&iuml;ve + non-resistant group). Heterosexual cisgender women compared to men who have sex with men [MSM], had a lower viral suppression (aHR = 0.84, 0.70&ndash;1.01, p = 0.06) ART-experienced persons with NNRTI-PDR showed the worst clinical outcomes. This group was enriched with women and persons with lower education and unemployed, which suggests higher levels of social vulnerability