123 research outputs found

    Effect of rollover risk on default risk: evidence from bank financing

    Get PDF
    We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986–2013. Dependence on bank financing is the key driver of the impact of rollover risk on default risk. Default risk and rollover risk present a significant positive relation in firms dependent on bank financing. In contrast, rollover risk is uncorrelated with default probability in the case of firms that do not rely on bank financing. Our measure of rollover risk is the amount of long-term debt maturing in one year, weighted by total assets. In the case of a firm that depends on bank financing, an increase of one standard deviation in this measure leads to a significant increase of 3.2% in its default probability within one year. Other drivers affecting the interaction between rollover risk and default risk are whether a firm suffers from declining profitability and has poor credit. Additionally, rollover risk's impact on default probability is stronger during periods when credit market conditions are tighter

    On the Role of Industry-Level Structural Constraints and the Timing of Accounting Reports in Bankruptcy Predictions

    Get PDF
    This study uses a hazard model with data on 3392 corporate bankruptcies by U.S. public companies during 1983–2008 to determine the effect of industry-based structural constraints on bankruptcy predictions. The probability of bankruptcy is significantly higher for firms in highly concentrated industries and with relatively stronger customer dependency. Most bankruptcy predictions reflect the variation of a firm’s characteristics relative to its industry, but industry-specific characteristics have negligible impacts. The investigation also includes a comparison of the relative performance of accounting and market-based variables, in terms of both in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. For yearly data, the best model includes both accounting and market-based variables. However, for monthly market data and quarterly accounting reports, the best model features only market data. The usefulness of accounting measures in bankruptcy prediction models thus may be contingent on sampling frequency.We acknowledge financial support from MCI grant ECO2009-12551

    Clinical Effects of Laser Acupuncture plus Chinese Cupping on the Pain and Plasma Cortisol Levels in Patients with Chronic Nonspecific Lower Back Pain: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Get PDF
    Objectives. Chronic nonspecific lower back pain (LBP) is a common disease. Insufficient data is currently available to conclusively confirm the analgesic effects of laser acupuncture on LBP. This study evaluated the effectiveness of laser acupuncture plus Chinese cupping in LBP treatment. Methods. Patients with chronic nonspecific LBP were enrolled for a randomized controlled trial and assigned to the laser acupuncture group (laser acupuncture plus Chinese cupping) and control group (sham laser plus Chinese cupping). Laser acupuncture (808 nm; 40 mW; 20 Hz; 15 J/cm2) and Chinese cupping were applied on the Weizhong (BL40) and Ashi acupoints for 5 consecutive days. Plasma cortisol levels were assessed before and after the 5-day treatment session. The visual analog scale (VAS) scores were recorded at baseline and throughout the 5-day treatment session. Results. After the treatment session, the plasma cortisol levels and VAS scores decreased significantly in both groups. In the laser acupuncture group, the VAS scores decreased significantly on days 4 and 5, and an enhanced reduction in VAS scores was observed. Conclusion. Laser acupuncture plus Chinese cupping at the Weizhong (BL40) and Ashi acupoints effectively reduced pain and inflammation in chronic nonspecific LBP. This therapy could be a suitable option for LBP treatment in clinical settings

    Nationwide Surveillance of Influenza during the Pandemic (2009–10) and Post-Pandemic (2010–11) Periods in Taiwan

    Get PDF
    INTRODUCTION: Although WHO declared the world moving into the post-pandemic period on August 10, 2010, influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus continued to circulate globally. Its impact was expected to continue during the 2010-11 influenza season. This study describes the nationwide surveillance findings of the pandemic and post-pandemic influenza periods in Taiwan and assesses the impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 during the post-pandemic period. METHODS: The Influenza Laboratory Surveillance Network consisted of 12 contract laboratories for collecting and testing samples with acute respiratory tract infections. Surveillance of emergency room visits and outpatient department visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) were conducted using the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance system and the National Health Insurance program data, respectively. Hospitalized cases with severe complications and deaths were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. RESULTS: During the 2009-10 influenza season, pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 was the predominant circulating strain and caused 44 deaths. However, the 2010-11 influenza season began with A(H3N2) being the predominant circulating strain, changing to A(H1N1) 2009 in December 2010. Emergency room and outpatient department ILI surveillance displayed similar trends. By March 31, 2011, there were 1,751 cases of influenza with severe complications; 50.1% reported underlying diseases. Of the reported cases, 128 deaths were associated with influenza. Among these, 93 (72.6%) were influenza A(H1N1) 2009 and 30 (23.4%) A(H3N2). Compared to the pandemic period, during the immediate post-pandemic period, increased number of hospitalizations and deaths were observed, and the patients were consistently older. CONCLUSIONS: Reemergence of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 during the 2010-11 influenza season had an intense activity with age distribution shift. To further mitigate the impact of future influenza epidemics, Taiwan must continue its multifaceted influenza surveillance systems, remain flexible with antiviral use policies, and revise the vaccine policies to include the population most at risk

    Ciprofloxacin-resistant Salmonella enterica Typhimurium and Choleraesuis from Pigs to Humans, Taiwan

    Get PDF
    We evaluated the disk susceptibility data of 671 nontyphoid Salmonella isolates collected from different parts of Taiwan from March 2001 to August 2001 and 1,261 nontyphoid Salmonella isolates from the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1996 to 2001. Overall, ciprofloxacn resistance was found in 2.7% (18/671) of all nontyphoid Salmonella isolates, in 1.4% (5/347) of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium and in 7.5% (8/107) in S. enterica serotype Choleraesuis nationwide. MICs of six newer fluoroquinolones were determined for the following isolates: 37 isolates of ciprofloxacin-resistant (human) S. enterica Typhimurium (N = 26) and Choleraesuis (N = 11), 10 isolates of ciprofloxacin-susceptible (MIC <1 μg/mL) (human) isolates of these two serotypes, and 15 swine isolates from S. enterica Choleraesuis (N = 13) and Typhmurium (N = 2) with reduced susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (MIC >0.12 μg/mL). Sequence analysis of the gryA, gyrB, parC, parE, and acrR genes, ciprofloxacin accumulation; and genotypes generated by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis with three restriction enzymes (SpeI, XbaI, and BlnI) were performed. All 26 S. enterica Typhimurium isolates from humans and pigs belonged to genotype I. For S. enterica Choleraesuis isolates, 91% (10/11) of human isolates and 54% (7/13) of swine isolates belonged to genotype B. These two genotypes isolates from humans all exhibited a high-level of resistance to ciprofloxacin (MIC 16–64 μg/mL). They had two-base substitutions in the gyrA gene at codons 83 (Ser83Phe) and 87 (Asp87Gly or Asp87Asn) and in the parC gene at codon 80 (Ser80Arg, Ser80Ile, or Ser84Lys). Our investigation documented that not only did these two S. enterica isolates have a high prevalence of ciprofloxacin resistance nationwide but also that some closely related ciprofloxacin-resistant strains are disseminated from pigs to humans

    Individual Fit Testing of Hearing-Protection Devices Based on Microphones in Real Ears among Workers in Industries with High-Noise-Level Manufacturing

    No full text
    Hearing-protection devices (HPDs) are particularly important in protecting the hearing of workers. The aim of this study was to prevent hearing damage in workplaces in Taiwan. It was conducted to determine the actual sound attenuation of the personal attenuation rating (PAR) values when wearing HPDs via measurements from field microphones in workers&rsquo; real ears (F-MIRE). Across 105 measurement trials for the Classic&trade; roll-down foam earplug HPDs worn by the workers, there were 23 cases of ineffective protection (including caution and fail); the proportion was 20% (including the first measurement and re-wear of HPDs after education and training). In addition, re-education and training in how to wear the HPDs was provided, improving wearing skills. A total of 29 testees wearing the Classic&trade; roll-down foam earplug HPDs failed to meet the pass standard for the first PAR test, and 6 of them improved and subsequently passed the PAR test. The improvement rate was 20%. These 23 testees switched to another HPD, namely Kneading-Free Push-Ins&trade; earplugs. From this group, 16 effective sound attenuation values were obtained, with an improvement rate of 70%. However, seven testees failed to pass the PAR test, and after education, training, and replacement of HPDs with different types, they still could not pass the PAR test. At that time, even if the UltraFit&trade; pre-molded earplugs were adopted again for wear and replacement, they were still unable to pass the PAR test. This HPD was eventually replaced with the PELTOR X4A Earmuff HPD and then tested again, with these HPDs finally passing the PAR test. In Taiwan, the use of fit testing has been increasing but it is not a common practice, and few studies on hearing-protection fit testing have been conducted in this country. The goal of this study was to gain more insight into the current hearing protection situation, including field attenuation of HPDs obtained by workers, the effects of training on improving the attenuation of HPDs after F-MIRE measurements, and the awareness of hearing health and motivation on the use of HPDs in a high-noise-level environment

    Enhanced Electrical Properties and Stability of P-Type Conduction in ZnO Transparent Semiconductor Thin Films by Co-Doping Ga and N

    No full text
    P-type ZnO transparent semiconductor thin films were prepared on glass substrates by the sol-gel spin-coating process with N doping and Ga&ndash;N co-doping. Comparative studies of the microstructural features, optical properties, and electrical characteristics of ZnO, N-doped ZnO (ZnO:N), and Ga&ndash;N co-doped ZnO (ZnO:Ga&ndash;N) thin films are reported in this paper. Each as-coated sol-gel film was preheated at 300 &deg;C for 10 min in air and then annealed at 500 &deg;C for 1 h in oxygen ambient. X-ray diffraction (XRD) examination confirmed that these ZnO-based thin films had a polycrystalline nature and an entirely wurtzite structure. The incorporation of N and Ga&ndash;N into ZnO thin films obviously refined the microstructures, reduced surface roughness, and enhanced the transparency in the visible range. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis confirmed the incorporation of N and Ga&ndash;N into the ZnO:N and ZnO:Ga&ndash;N thin films, respectively. The room temperature PL spectra exhibited a prominent peak and a broad band, which corresponded to the near-band edge emission and deep-level emission. Hall measurement revealed that the ZnO semiconductor thin films were converted from n-type to p-type after incorporation of N into ZnO nanocrystals, and they had a mean hole concentration of 1.83 &times; 1015 cm&minus;3 and a mean resistivity of 385.4 &Omega;&middot;cm. In addition, the Ga&ndash;N co-doped ZnO thin film showed good p-type conductivity with a hole concentration approaching 4.0 &times; 1017 cm&minus;3 and a low resistivity of 5.09 &Omega;&middot;cm. The Ga&ndash;N co-doped thin films showed relatively stable p-type conduction (&gt;three weeks) compared with the N-doped thin films

    Is the realized volatility good for option pricing during the recent financial crisis?

    No full text
    The contributions of this paper are threefold. The first contribution is the proposed logarithmic HAR (log-HAR) option-pricing model, which is more convenient compared with other option pricing models associated with realized volatility in terms of simpler estimation procedure. The second contribution is the test of the empirical implications of heterogeneous autoregressive model of the realized volatility (HAR)-type models in the S&#38;P 500 index options market with comparison of the non-linear asymmetric GARCH option-pricing model, which is the best model in pricing options among generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic-type models. The third contribution is the empirical analysis based on options traded from July 3, 2007 to December 31, 2008, a period covering a recent financial crisis. Overall, the HAR-type models successfully predict out-of-sample option prices because they are based on realized volatilities, which are closer to the expected volatility in financial markets. However, mixed results exist between the log-HAR and the heterogeneous auto-regressive gamma models in pricing options because the former is better than the latter in times of turmoil, whereas it is worse during the rather stable periods
    corecore