A monetary policy rule: The augmented Monetary Conditions Index for Philippines using UECM and bounds tests

This paper constructs the augmented monetary conditions index (AMCI) over 1982:1-2004:4 using UECM and bounds test approach for the Philippines data. Results reveal evidence of cointegration between the real GDP and its determinants, namely short-term interest rate, exchange rate and claims on private sectors that take into account three key transmission mechanisms channels in the conduct of monetary policy, namely the interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. While asset price channel is found to be insignificant. The monetary conditions during the study periods is reflected in the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s reaction to the prevailing economic situation, imply that the AMCI tracks the inverse movements of the real GDP growth reasonably well after 1990s. Possible light of policy implications have put forward.AMCI, monetary policy, cointegration, bounds test, UECM, transmission mechanisms

Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?

This paper uses quarterly data from 1980 to 2004 for ASEAN-5 founder countries to estimate the weight of the Augmented Monetary Conditions Index (AMCI), and identifies the key transmission mechanism paths using Pesaran and Pesaran’s (1997) ARDL procedure, and Pesaran et al.’s (2001) bounds procedure. The roles of credit and asset price channels are assessed for aggregate demand conditions and in the transmission of monetary policy. Results reveal evidence of cointegration for all the ASEAN-Five founder countries. The estimate of the interest and exchange rate elasticities of aggregate demand is used to determine the weight of the exchange rate in the AMCI, and ultimately the weight is then used to construct the AMCI ratio. Exchange rate, asset price, and interest rate channels are three key transmission mechanisms in the conduct of monetary policy in Indonesia and Thailand. Meanwhile in Malaysia and Singapore, exchange rate, both the long and short term interest rate, and credit channels are three key transmission mechanisms in the conduct of monetary policy. In the Philippines, four key transmission mechanisms take place, namely the interest rate, exchange rate, credit, and asset price channels, with short rate relatively weaker than the long rate at the margin. The estimated weights of real interest rates and real exchange rate are used to estimate the AMCI ratios. The AMCI ratios range from 0.052 to 0.664 [0.052:1 for Philippines, 0.056:1 for Thailand, 0.073:1 for Indonesia, 0.109:1 for Malaysia; and 0.664 for Singapore]. Monetary conditions during the period under-study are found to be reflected in each of the central banks’ reaction to the prevailing economic situation, which implies that AMCI tracks the movements of the real GDP plausibly on the average, particularly after 1997.Augmented Monetary Conditions Index; monetary policy; transmission mechanism

An Application Of Augmented Monetary Conditions Index On The ASEAN-Five

Previous studies have suggested Monetary Conditions Index (hereafter MCI) serves as an indicator of the monetary policy stance to capture the degree of tightness of the monetary policy. The weights of the MCI in the model reflect long-term effects of the interest rate and the exchange rate on the economic activity and ultimately the inflation. Nevertheless, MCIs may not be used as an operational target as it has heavily been documented in the mainstream literature since it is not resilient to the problem of shock identification. Recognizing the caveats upon its usage empirically, the augmented MCI (AMCI) is contemplated by incorporating more informative ‘other variables’ into the conventional model which consists of two major variables i.e., the interest rate and the exchange rate. Since monetary policy affects the price level through a number of transmission mechanisms, other potential variables need to be incorporated to AMCI to account for possible channels in the transmission mechanisms. The details of “other variables” are as follows: 1) government bonds yield as proxy for long-term interest rate; 2) the real share price as proxy for asset price channel, and 3) real claims on private sectors for credit channel. However, the lag effects of the examined determinant variables on output are dynamics and vary, at least in the short-term. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to estimate the weight of the AMCI, and identify the lag effect on the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using Autoregression Distribution Lags (ARDL) bounds test approach for cointegration analysis as proposed by Pesaran et al., (2001). Bounds test reveals an evidence of the long-run cointegration for all the ASEAN-Five founder countries. This has verified the stability of the country’s GDP demand function which is used to construct the AMCI ratio. In Indonesia, the bounds test reveals an evidence of the long-run cointegration between the real GDP and its determinants, namely the bond rate, the exchange rate, and the share prices from 1983:2-2004:4. Nevertheless, the claim of private sector (COPS, the proxy of credit channel) does not appear to be a significant variable in the model. Meanwhile for both Malaysia and Singapore, the ARDL approach validates the existence of long-run cointegration between the GDP and the exchange rate, the bond and the short-term interest rate, as well as the COPS over the quarterly period of 1980:1-2004:4 and 1981:1-2004:4 respectively. Nevertheless, the asset price channel does not fit into the model significantly. While in Thailand, the bounds test reveals an evidence of the cointegration between the real GDP and its determinants, i.e., the interest rate, the exchange rate, and the share price over the quarterly period of 1980:1-2004:4). However, the credit channel does not reveal any significant result in the model. In the Philippines, the bounds test reveals an evidence of a cointegration between the real GDP and the bond rate, the short-term interest rate, the exchange rate, the COPS, and the share price that address all the key transmission mechanisms channels in the conduct of the monetary policy, namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the credit channel, and the asset price channel over the quarterly period of 1982:1-2004:4 Monetary conditions during the period under-study are found to be reflected in each of the central banks’ reaction to the prevailing economic situation, which implies that AMCI tracks the inversed movements of the real GDP plausibly on the average, except during the onset of Asian financial crisis in 1997

Evaluation of Drastic and Geograpidc Information System as a Tool in Determining the Groundwater Quality Vulnerability of Kuala Langat Aquifer

This thesis describes the results of a ground water pollution potential modeling, which examined the entire Kuala Langat aquifer using GIS. The pollution potential model implemented within GIS is known as DRASTIC, a model, which was developed by the u.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1985. In compiling a groundwater vulnerability map of Kuala Langat, it was decided to use the widely known DRASTIC methodology that includes Depth to groundwater, Recharge due to rainfall, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of the vadose zone, and Conductivity (hydraulic). Although not designed for a GIS, this model represents a classic spatial analysis approach for which GIS have become known. This thesis outlines the techniques used in compiling the data sets for those factors that influence the susceptibility of groundwater contamination over Kuala Langat and the techniques involved In manipulating and displaying these data in a GIS. The different techniques employed in the gathering and calculations of the different information sets required by the DRASTIC model to describe the groundwater vulnerability are presented in detail. The final output, which is in the form of a color paper map, will be useful in presenting the concept of groundwater vulnerability and groundwater protection to the layman. Results show that DPPI ranges from 80 to 165 giving 90% of the entire area as moderate vulnerable. However the south and east portion of Kuala Langat pose much more pollution potential than other area. Pesticide DPPI ranges from 1 14 to 166 with higher numbers representing higher pollution potential, indicating that moderate pesticide pollution potential occurs through out the entire Kuala Langat aquifer. The Pesticide DRASTIC Pollution Potential Index of Kuala Langat is higher than DRASTIC Pollution Potential Index (DPPI) of Kuala Langat. From these findings, it can be concluded that the potential source of pollution in the area derived from agricultural activities

Feedback vertex set on chordal bipartite graphs

Let G=(A,B,E) be a bipartite graph with color classes A and B. The graph G is chordal bipartite if G has no induced cycle of length more than four. Let G=(V,E) be a graph. A feedback vertex set F is a set of vertices F subset V such that G-F is a forest. The feedback vertex set problem asks for a feedback vertex set of minimal cardinality. We show that the feedback vertex set problem can be solved in polynomial time on chordal bipartite graphs

Risk Assessment Scenario of Machap Dam Overtopping Using New PMP Malaysian Series

A hydrological dam safety analysis was carried out for existing Machap dam (CA= 77 km2) due to change in the extreme rainfall condition in the watershed. It is important to ensure that extreme meteorologically induced flood rises do not exceed its crest level. Step-by-step procedures were carried out in tandem to evaluate the hydrological performance of the gated spillway capacity in light of an extreme storm event of PMP/PMF magnitude. This study adopts a newly developed “inland” type of PMPs compared to the original design PMPs. A catchment routing and reservoir procedures were then used to translate the PMPs to PMFs and estimate the outflows and corresponding flood rises over the crest level for all durations. The results of the PMPs/PMFs were comparable to the “Creager” type of catchment area-PMP relationship of various dams in Malaysia. A conventional reservoir routing procedure by modified puls technique is then carried out for all PMP/PMF durations; i.e., 1 to 120 hours. Three (3) scenarios are performed; namely, (1) when the gates are fully closed, (2) when the gates are partially open in light of impeding PMP/PMF event and (3) when the gates are fully open. The last scenario (case 3) represents the most efficient and effective management of the reservoir gate operation as the original designer intended. The flood rises for all durations are considered lower than the embankment crest level. The results also show expectedly the failures of both cases (1 and 2) for their inadequate capacity to allow safe passage of flood water of PMP/PMF magnitude

A Bibliometric Analysis of Biodegradable Products in Circular Economy and Consumer Perception

The transition towards a global circular economy is widely acknowledged as one of the most promising solutions to counteract resource depletion and environmental deterioration. In alignment with this perspective, there has been a rise in the availability of environmentally friendly products in the consumer market. This shift towards sustainable production and consumption patterns has led to a surge in scholarly interest surrounding biodegradable studies, particularly from the consumer viewpoint, within the context of the circular economy. However, the exploration of this topic, especially concerning the consumer perspective and its role in the circular economy, remains limited in the existing literature search. With the ongoing progression towards a circular economy, there is an evident need for a deeper understanding, extracted from available literature. Utilizing a bibliometric analysis approach, this study aims to enhance comprehension of the present knowledge landscape and delineate potential future research directions linked to consumers’ roles in the transition from a linear to a circular economy, as well as their intent to adopt biodegradable products. Employing boolean operators and wildcard searches, a topic exploration was conducted within the Web of Science (WoS) core collection database on August 22, 2022. The study spanned from the first publication in the field in 2017 to the current date. A total of 51 documents were retrieved for comprehensive bibliometric analysis. To visualize research productivity and bibliometric insights, Tableau and VOSviewer were employed as presentation tools. The findings unveil the involvement of 223 authors hailing from 26 countries. The top three research areas encompass Environmental Sciences Ecology (35.3%), Science Technology Other Topics (33.3%), and Engineering (29.4%). Notably, the majority of significant contributors originated from the United States. Leading the pack of core publication journals is the Journal of Cleaner Production, cited 129 times in WoS. Co-authorship and country collaboration networks indicate a minimal level of partnerships. Through keywork co-occurrence network analysis, three prominent themes were identified: process, materials, and consumers. This analysis distinctly elucidates various developmental stages as well as nascent dimensions that constitute potential focal points for future research agendas in the field. Keywords: bibliometric, biodegradable, circular economy, consumer, Wo