Assessment of the INLA approach on gerarchic bayesian models for the spatial disease distribution: a real data application

The use of approximate methods as the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation) approach is being widely used in Bayesian inference, especially in spatial risk model estimation where the Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model ` has found a proper use. INLA appears time saving compared to Monte Carlo simulations based on Markov Chains (MCMC), but it produces some differences in estimates [1, 2]. Data from the Veneto Cancer Registry has been considered with the scope to compare cancer incidence estimates with INLA method and with two other procedures based on MCMC simulation, WinBUGS and CARBayes, under R environment. It is noteworthy that INLA returns estimates comparable to both MCMC procedures, but it appears sensitive to the a-priori distribution. INLA is fast and efficient in particular with samples of moderate-high size. However, care must to be paid to the choice of the parameter relating to the a-priori distribution

SHARK-NIR, the coronagraphic camera for LBT, moving toward construction

SHARK-NIR is one of the two coronagraphic instruments proposed for the Large Binocular Telescope. Together with SHARK-VIS (performing coronagraphic imaging in the visible domain), it will offer the possibility to do binocular observations combining direct imaging, coronagraphic imaging and coronagraphic low resolution spectroscopy in a wide wavelength domain, going from 0.5{\mu}m to 1.7{\mu}m. Additionally, the contemporary usage of LMIRCam, the coronagraphic LBTI NIR camera, working from K to L band, will extend even more the covered wavelength range. In January 2017 SHARK-NIR underwent a successful final design review, which endorsed the instrument for construction and future implementation at LBT. We report here the final design of the instrument, which foresees two intermediate pupil planes and three focal planes to accomodate a certain number of coronagraphic techniques, selected to maximize the instrument contrast at various distances from the star. Exo-Planets search and characterization has been the science case driving the instrument design, but the SOUL upgrade of the LBT AO will increase the instrument performance in the faint end regime, allowing to do galactic (jets and disks) and extra-galactic (AGN and QSO) science on a relatively wide sample of targets, normally not reachable in other similar facilities.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, AO4ELT5 conference proceeding

MORFEO enters final design phase

MORFEO (Multi-conjugate adaptive Optics Relay For ELT Observations, formerly MAORY), the MCAO system for the ELT, will provide diffraction-limited optical quality to the large field camera MICADO. MORFEO has officially passed the Preliminary Design Review and it is entering the final design phase. We present the current status of the project, with a focus on the adaptive optics system aspects and expected milestones during the next project phase

MAVIS: The adaptive optics module feasibility study

The Adaptive Optics Module of MAVIS is a self-contained MCAO module, which delivers a corrected FoV to the postfocal scientific instruments, in the visible. The module aims to exploit the full potential of the ESO VLT UT4 Adaptive Optics Facility, which is composed of the high spatial frequency deformable secondary mirror and the laser guide stars launching and control systems. During the MAVIS Phase A, we evaluated, with the support of simulations and analysis at different levels, the main terms of the error budgets aiming at estimating the realistic AOM performance. After introducing the current opto-mechanical design and AO scheme of the AOM, we here present the standard wavefront error budget and the other budgets, including manufacturing, alignment of the module, thermal behavior and noncommon path aberrations, together with the contribution of the upstream telescope system

Combined fit to the spectrum and composition data measured by the Pierre Auger Observatory including magnetic horizon effects

The measurements by the Pierre Auger Observatory of the energy spectrum and mass composition of cosmic rays can be interpreted assuming the presence of two extragalactic source populations, one dominating the flux at energies above a few EeV and the other below. To fit the data ignoring magnetic field effects, the high-energy population needs to accelerate a mixture of nuclei with very hard spectra, at odds with the approximate E$^{-2}$ shape expected from diffusive shock acceleration. The presence of turbulent extragalactic magnetic fields in the region between the closest sources and the Earth can significantly modify the observed CR spectrum with respect to that emitted by the sources, reducing the flux of low-rigidity particles that reach the Earth. We here take into account this magnetic horizon effect in the combined fit of the spectrum and shower depth distributions, exploring the possibility that a spectrum for the high-energy population sources with a shape closer to E$^{-2}$ be able to explain the observations

Studies of the mass composition of cosmic rays and proton-proton interaction cross-sections at ultra-high energies with the Pierre Auger Observatory

In this work, we present an estimate of the cosmic-ray mass composition from the distributions of the depth of the shower maximum (Xmax) measured by the fluorescence detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. We discuss the sensitivity of the mass composition measurements to the uncertainties in the properties of the hadronic interactions, particularly in the predictions of the particle interaction cross-sections. For this purpose, we adjust the fractions of cosmic-ray mass groups to fit the data with Xmax distributions from air shower simulations. We modify the proton-proton cross-sections at ultra-high energies, and the corresponding air shower simulations with rescaled nucleus-air cross-sections are obtained via Glauber theory. We compare the energy-dependent composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays obtained for the different extrapolations of the proton-proton cross-sections from low-energy accelerator data