The South African Tuberculosis Care Cascade: Estimated Losses and Methodological Challenges

Background: While tuberculosis incidence and mortality are declining in South Africa, meeting the goals of the End TB Strategy requires an invigorated programmatic response informed by accurate data. Enumerating the losses at each step in the care cascade enables appropriate targeting of interventions and resources. / Methods: We estimated the tuberculosis burden; the number and proportion of individuals with tuberculosis who accessed tests, had tuberculosis diagnosed, initiated treatment, and successfully completed treatment for all tuberculosis cases, for those with drug-susceptible tuberculosis (including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–coinfected cases) and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Estimates were derived from national electronic tuberculosis register data, laboratory data, and published studies. / Results: The overall tuberculosis burden was estimated to be 532005 cases (range, 333760–764480 cases), with successful completion of treatment in 53% of cases. Losses occurred at multiple steps: 5% at test access, 13% at diagnosis, 12% at treatment initiation, and 17% at successful treatment completion. Overall losses were similar among all drug-susceptible cases and those with HIV coinfection (54% and 52%, respectively, successfully completed treatment). Losses were substantially higher among rifampicin- resistant cases, with only 22% successfully completing treatment. / Conclusion: Although the vast majority of individuals with tuberculosis engaged the public health system, just over half were successfully treated. Urgent efforts are required to improve implementation of existing policies and protocols to close gaps in tuberculosis diagnosis, treatment initiation, and successful treatment completion

Performance of the 2007 WHO Algorithm to diagnose Smear-negative Pulmonary Tuberculosis in a HIV prevalent setting

The 2007 WHO algorithm for diagnosis of smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) including Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) culture was evaluated in a HIV prevalent area of Kenya

The Impact and Cost of Scaling up GeneXpert MTB/RIF in South Africa

We estimated the incremental cost and impact on diagnosis and treatment uptake of national rollout of Xpert MTB/RIF technology (Xpert) for the diagnosis of pulmonary TB above the cost of current guidelines for the years 2011 to 2016 in South Africa.We parameterised a population-level decision model with data from national-level TB databases (n = 199,511) and implementation studies. The model follows cohorts of TB suspects from diagnosis to treatment under current diagnostic guidelines or an algorithm that includes Xpert. Assumptions include the number of TB suspects, symptom prevalence of 5.5%, annual suspect growth rate of 10%, and 2010 public-sector salaries and drug and service delivery costs. Xpert test costs are based on data from an in-country pilot evaluation and assumptions about when global volumes allowing cartridge discounts will be reached.At full scale, Xpert will increase the number of TB cases diagnosed per year by 30%-37% and the number of MDR-TB cases diagnosed by 69%-71%. It will diagnose 81% of patients after the first visit, compared to 46% currently. The cost of TB diagnosis per suspect will increase by 55% to USD 60-61 and the cost of diagnosis and treatment per TB case treated by 8% to USD 797-873. The incremental capital cost of the Xpert scale-up will be USD 22 million and the incremental recurrent cost USD 287-316 million over six years.Xpert will increase both the number of TB cases diagnosed and treated and the cost of TB diagnosis. These results do not include savings due to reduced transmission of TB as a result of earlier diagnosis and treatment initiation

What causes symptoms suggestive of tuberculosis in HIV-positive people with negative initial investigations?

OBJECTIVE: To identify the causes of symptoms suggestive of tuberculosis (TB) among people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) in South Africa. METHODS: A consecutive sample of HIV clinic attendees with symptoms suggestive of TB (1 of cough, weight loss, fever or night sweats) at enrolment and at 3 months, and negative initial TB investigations, were systematically evaluated with standard protocols and diagnoses assigned using standard criteria. TB was 'confirmed' if Mycobacterium tuberculosis was identified within 6 months of enrolment, and 'clinical' if treatment started without microbiological confirmation. RESULTS: Among 103 participants, 50/103 were pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 53/103 were on ART; respectively 68% vs. 79% were female; the median age was 35 vs. 45 years; the median CD4 count was 311 vs. 508 cells/mm³. Seventy-two (70%) had 5% measured weight loss and 50 (49%) had cough. The most common final diagnoses were weight loss due to severe food insecurity (n = 20, 19%), TB (n = 14, 14%: confirmed n = 7; clinical n = 7), other respiratory tract infection (n = 14, 14%) and post-TB lung disease (n = 9, 9%). The basis for TB diagnosis was imaging (n = 7), bacteriological confirmation from sputum (n = 4), histology, lumbar puncture and other (n = 1 each). CONCLUSION: PLHIV with persistent TB symptoms require further evaluation for TB using all available modalities, and for food insecurity in those with weight loss

Incremental Yield of Serial Sputum Cultures for Diagnosis of Tuberculosis among HIV Infected Smear Negative Pulmonary TB Suspects in Kampala, Uganda

Sputum culture is the gold standard for diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). Although mostly used for research, culture is recommended by the World Health Organization for TB diagnosis among HIV infected smear negative PTB suspects. Even then, the number of sputum samples required remains unspecified. Here, we determined the Incremental Yield (IY) and number of samples required to diagnose an additional PTB case upon second and third serial sputum culture.This was a cross sectional study done between January and March 2011. Serial sputum samples were provided by participants within two days and cultured using Lowenstein Jensen (LJ) and Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) methods. A PTB case was defined as a positive culture on either one or both methods. The IY from the second and third serial cultures was determined and the reciprocal of the product of the fractions of IY provided the number of samples required for an additional PTB case. Of the 170 smear negative PTB suspects, 62 (36.5%) met the case definition. The IY of the second sample culture was 12.7%, 23.6% and 12.6% and for the third sample culture was 6.8%, 7.5% and 7.3% with LJ, MGIT and LJ or MGIT, respectively. The number of samples required for an additional PTB case and 95% CI upon the second sample culture were 29.9 (16.6, 156.5), 11.3 (7.6, 21.9) and 20.8 (12.5, 62.7); while for the third sample culture were 55.6 (26.4, 500.4), 35.7 (19.0, 313.8) and 36.1 (19.1, 330.9) by LJ, MGIT and LJ or MGIT respectively.Among HIV infected smear negative PTB suspects in Kampala, 93% of PTB cases are diagnosed upon the second serial sputum culture. The number of cultures needed to diagnose an additional PTB case, ranges from 11–30 and 35–56 by the second and third sputum samples, respectively

A Comparison of Tools Used for Tuberculosis Diagnosis in Resource-Limited Settings: A Case Study at Mubende Referral Hospital, Uganda

This study compared TB diagnostic tools and estimated levels of misdiagnosis in a resource-limited setting. Furthermore, we estimated the diagnostic utility of three-TB-associated predictors in an algorithm with and without Direct Ziehl-Neelsen (DZM).Data was obtained from a cross-sectional study in 2011 conducted at Mubende regional referral hospital in Uganda. An individual was included if they presented with a two weeks persistent cough and or lymphadenitis/abscess. 344 samples were analyzed on DZM in Mubende and compared to duplicates analyzed on direct fluorescent microscopy (DFM), growth on solid and liquid media at Makerere University. Clinical variables from a questionnaire and DZM were used to predict TB status in multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazard models, while optimization and visualization was done with receiver operating characteristics curve and algorithm-charts in Stata, R and Lucid-Charts respectively.DZM had a sensitivity and specificity of 36.4% (95% CI = 24.9-49.1) and 97.1%(95% CI = 94.4-98.7) compared to DFM which had a sensitivity and specificity of 80.3%(95% CI = 68.7-89.1) and 97.1%(95% CI = 94.4-98.7) respectively. DZM false negative results were associated with patient's HIV status, tobacco smoking and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis. One of the false negative cases was infected with multi drug resistant TB (MDR). The three-predictor screening algorithm with and without DZM classified 50% and 33% of the true cases respectively, while the adjusted algorithm with DZM classified 78% of the true cases.The study supports the concern that using DZM alone risks missing majority of TB cases, in this case we found nearly 60%, of who one was an MDR case. Although adopting DFM would reduce this proportion to 19%, the use of a three-predictor screening algorithm together with DZM was almost as good as DFM alone. It's utility is whoever subject to HIV screening all TB suspects

High yield of culture-based diagnosis in a TB-endemic setting

BACKGROUND: In most of the world, microbiologic diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is limited to microscopy. Recent guidelines recommend culture-based diagnosis where feasible. METHODS: In order to evaluate the relative and absolute incremental diagnostic yield of culture-based diagnosis in a high-incidence community in Cape Town, South Africa, subjects evaluated for suspected TB had their samples processed for microscopy and culture over a 21 month period. RESULTS: For 2537 suspect episodes with 2 smears and 2 cultures done, 20.0% (508) had at least one positive smear and 29.9% (760) had at least one positive culture. One culture yielded 1.8 times more cases as 1 smear (relative yield), or an increase of 12.0% (absolute yield). Based on the latter value, the number of cultures needed to diagnose (NND) one extra case of TB was 8, compared to 19 if second specimens were submitted for microscopy. CONCLUSION: In a high-burden setting, the introduction of culture can markedly increase TB diagnosis over microscopy. The concept of number needed to diagnose can help in comparing incremental yield of diagnosis methods. Although new promising diagnostic molecular methods are being implemented, TB culture is still the gold standard

Evolution of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis over four decades: whole genome sequencing and dating analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from KwaZulu-Natal.

CAPRISA, 2015.Abstract available in pdf