Studies in risk aversion and methods in economics

The papers in this thesis cover a variety of ideas. They are united by the common theme of carefully observing existing relationships in data. In the first chapter, I find that looking at averages can be insuffcient. On average, there is not a strong relationship between an individual's ability and her tolerance of risk. However, the joint distribution of the two characteristics shows a great deal of heterogeneity that the average masks. The highest ability individuals are most likely to report middle levels of risk tolerance, whereas those of lower ability are also likely to report extreme values. For those of high ability, therefore, insuffcient risk tolerance may prevent them from starting their own business. In the second chapter, I illustrate and quantify the effciency gain that results from accounting for nonlinearities in the first stage of 2SLS when estimating the second stage parameters of interest. Additionally, I show that in some cases estimating nonlinearly can prevent incorrect inference resulting from misestimation of the underlying first stage data generating process when using a linear method. In the third chapter, I observe and attempt to explain a behavioral puzzle. A standard screening question for rational decision-making screens out a large minority of the sample. Since so many people are affected, it is unlikely to be due to noise or measurement error. I take the answers seriously and develop an explanation

Зовнішньоекономічна діяльність та фінансові результати машинобудівних підприємств України

The aim of the article is to study the interrelationships between indicators of foreign economic activity and financial results of machine-building enterprises at the current stage of development. The analysis of statistical reports related to series of two groups of indicators for 2005–2015 is carried out. The first group describing financial results includes the following indicators: volumes of sales, financial results before taxes, net income, return on operating activities. The second group characterizing the foreign economic activity includes the indicators of foreign direct investments, exports and imports, trade balance, share of exports in the total sales and the official average annual exchange rate of the national currency. Particular stages of interrelated trends of changes in the indicators in dynamics are determined. The degree of closeness of interrelationships between factor and result indicators is assessed by correlation analysis. Current interdependent problems associated with the development of foreign economic activity and financial soundness of the machine-building enterprises of Ukraine are revealed.Метою статті є дослідження взаємозв'язку між показниками зовнішньоекономічної діяльності та фінансовими результатами машинобудівних підприємств на сучасному етапі розвитку. Проведено аналіз статистичної звітності за 2005–2015 рр. динамічних рядів двох груп показників. Перша група, що характеризує фінансові результати, включає: обсяг реалізованої продукції, фінансові результати до оподаткування, чистий прибуток, рентабельність операційної діяльності. Друга, що характеризує зовнішньоекономічну діяльність, включає: прямі іноземні інвестиції, розміри експорту та імпорту, сальдо експорту та імпорту, питому вагу експорту в загальному обсязі реалізованої продукції та офіціальний середньорічний курс гривні. Виокремлено етапи взаємопов'язаних тенденцій змінення даних груп показників у динаміці. Виконано кореляційний аналіз, що дозволив оцінити щільність зв'язку між факторними та результативними параметрами. Виявлені сучасні взаємозалежні проблеми забезпечення фінансового благополуччя та розвитку зовнішньоекономічної діяльності підприємств машинобудування

An epithelial biomarker signature for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: an analysis from the multicentre PROFILE cohort study

Background: Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, fatal condition with a variable disease trajectory. The aim of this study was to evaluate potential biomarkers that predict outcome for people with IPF. Method: The PROFILE study is a large prospective longitudinal cohort of treatment naïve IPF patients. We adopted a two-stage discovery and validation design using the PROFILE cohort. For the discovery analysis 106 individuals were examined alongside 50 age and gender matched healthy controls. We undertook an unbiased, multiplex evaluation of 123 biomarkers. Promising, novel, markers were further evaluated by immunohistochemical assessment of IPF lung tissue. The validation analysis examined samples from 206 IPF subjects, from the remaining 212 IPF patients recruited to PROFILE Central England, and were used for replication of the biomarkers identified from the discovery analysis using singleplex assays. This study addressed the predictive power of selected biomarkers to identify individuals with IPF at risk of: 1) progression and 2) death. The PROFILE studies are registered on clinicaltrials.gov (PROFILE Central England NCT01134822; PROFILE Royal Brompton Hospital NCT01110694). Findings: The discovery analysis identified four serum biomarkers (Surfactant Protein D, Matrix Metalloproteinase 7, CA19-9 and CA-125) suitable for replication. Histological assessment of CA19-9 and CA-125 established these proteins as markers of epithelial damage. Replication analysis confirmed that baseline values of SP-D (46.6ng/ml vs 34.6 ng/ml; p =0.002) and CA19-9 (53.7 U/ml vs 22.2 U/ml p<0.001) were significantly higher in patients with progressive disease, and rising levels of CA-125 over 3 months were associated with increased risk of mortality (HR 2.542 CI 1.493-4.328 p<0.001). Interpretation: We have identified serum proteins secreted from metaplastic epithelium that predict disease progression and death in IPF

Methodology for assessing the agroecological adaptability of genotypes under global climate warming

Background. The relevance of the research is due to the fact that, despite the breeding achievements in releasing cultivars with high potential yield and resistance to the most common stressors in the regions, it is almost impossible to foresee and accurately predict the reaction of cultivars under production conditions. Besides, extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts and downpours, will increasingly manifest themselves under global climate warming. To reduce the risk of a significant decrease in gross grain harvests in dry years and achieve high results under favorable conditions, the goal was to develop a comprehensive indicator for assessing the agroecological adaptability of genotypes to some consequences of global climate warming.Materials and methods. The results of a competitive test of 5 cultivars and 9 promising lines of spring wheat for their yield across six years contrasting in moisture availability by calculating the indicators of responsiveness to favorable conditions, grain yield depression under unfavorable conditions and the relative yield index were used to develop a complex indicator proposed to assess the agroecological adaptability of a genotype to contrasting environmental conditions.Results. The proposed method makes it possible to perform a comprehensive assessment that takes into account the responsiveness of an accession to improved agroclimatic conditions and the degree of its reaction to adverse environmental factors, taking into account the yield index in the studied set. The method is recommended for evaluating the source material and identifying the diversity of its responses to changes in agroclimatic conditions as well as for the stage of competitive variety testing in plant breeding for adaptability

Accelerated adaptation of spring wheat to climate change necessary

Associated with global warming environmental changes lead to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather conditions, while the enormously hot weather observed during the last years led to enhanced grain yield variability in many countries, to a gross production decrease, and growing in the number of the hungry in the world. For these reasons, the reducing the crop production industry dependence on weather fluctuations has to become the main task for agricultural science that will become even more relevant if to take into account the further increase in the population (up to 9.73 billion by 2064) as it will require an additional increase in agricultural production by more than 30%. The analysis of weather conditions in Samara region over a 31-year period in the decade context indicates significant negative changes in temperature conditions and precipitation during the notional vegetation of early grain crops (May-August). The near future forecast according to the linear regression equations (1990-2020) confirms a further temperature background increase during the notional vegetation to 22.1 °С on average per decade (+3.0 °С to the long-term average data for the 1980s) and a precipitation reduction to 113.2 mm (-49.8 mm). However, despite the high adaptive capabilities of cultivated crops, we believe that today it is necessary to correct the current breeding programs for high potential productivity, paying special attention to the creation of varieties with high drought and heat resistance that will require the search for new sources and methods of their identification