On the Relationship between the Conditional and Unconditional Distribution of a Random Variable

This paper studies the relationship between the unconditional and conditional distribution of the same random variable, say Y, when the distribution of the conditioning random variable X is of a known form. The problem is tackled in the general case where the distribution of Y and Y given X are mixed. Attention is focused to two particular cases. In the first X is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution; in the second X is allowed to have a mixed Poisson form. Potential applications are also discusse

Cryptic multiple hypotheses testing in linear models: overestimated effect sizes and the winner's curse

Fitting generalised linear models (GLMs) with more than one predictor has become the standard method of analysis in evolutionary and behavioural research. Often, GLMs are used for exploratory data analysis, where one starts with a complex full model including interaction terms and then simplifies by removing non-significant terms. While this approach can be useful, it is problematic if significant effects are interpreted as if they arose from a single a priori hypothesis test. This is because model selection involves cryptic multiple hypothesis testing, a fact that has only rarely been acknowledged or quantified. We show that the probability of finding at least one ‘significant’ effect is high, even if all null hypotheses are true (e.g. 40% when starting with four predictors and their two-way interactions). This probability is close to theoretical expectations when the sample size (N) is large relative to the number of predictors including interactions (k). In contrast, type I error rates strongly exceed even those expectations when model simplification is applied to models that are over-fitted before simplification (low N/k ratio). The increase in false-positive results arises primarily from an overestimation of effect sizes among significant predictors, leading to upward-biased effect sizes that often cannot be reproduced in follow-up studies (‘the winner's curse’). Despite having their own problems, full model tests and P value adjustments can be used as a guide to how frequently type I errors arise by sampling variation alone. We favour the presentation of full models, since they best reflect the range of predictors investigated and ensure a balanced representation also of non-significant results

Live Recombinant Salmonella Typhi Vaccines Constructed to Investigate the Role of rpoS in Eliciting Immunity to a Heterologous Antigen

We hypothesized that the immunogenicity of live Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi vaccines expressing heterologous antigens depends, at least in part, on its rpoS status. As part of our project to develop a recombinant attenuated S. Typhi vaccine (RASTyV) to prevent pneumococcal diseases in infants and children, we constructed three RASTyV strains synthesizing the Streptococcus pneumoniae surface protein PspA to test this hypothesis. Each vector strain carried ten engineered mutations designed to optimize safety and immunogenicity. Two S. Typhi vector strains (χ9639 and χ9640) were derived from the rpoS mutant strain Ty2 and one (χ9633) from the RpoS+ strain ISP1820. In χ9640, the nonfunctional rpoS gene was replaced with the functional rpoS gene from ISP1820. Plasmid pYA4088, encoding a secreted form of PspA, was moved into the three vector strains. The resulting RASTyV strains were evaluated for safety in vitro and for immunogenicity in mice. All three RASTyV strains were similar to the live attenuated typhoid vaccine Ty21a in their ability to survive in human blood and human monocytes. They were more sensitive to complement and were less able to survive and persist in sewage and surface water than their wild-type counterparts. Adult mice intranasally immunized with any of the RASTyV strains developed immune responses against PspA and Salmonella antigens. The RpoS+ vaccines induced a balanced Th1/Th2 immune response while the RpoS− strain χ9639(pYA4088) induced a strong Th2 immune response. Immunization with any RASTyV provided protection against S. pneumoniae challenge; the RpoS+ strain χ9640(pYA4088) provided significantly greater protection than the ISP1820 derivative, χ9633(pYA4088). In the pre-clinical setting, these strains exhibited a desirable balance between safety and immunogenicity and are currently being evaluated in a Phase 1 clinical trial to determine which of the three RASTyVs has the optimal safety and immunogenicity profile in human hosts

Density cycles and an offspring quantity and quality game driven by natural selection

A long-standing hypothesis posits that natural selection can favour two female strategies when density cycles. At low density, females producing many smaller progeny are favoured when the intrinsic rate of increase, r, governs population growth. At peak density, females producing fewer, high-quality, progeny are favoured when the carrying capacity, K, is exceeded and the population crashes. Here we report on the first example of a genetic r versus K selection game that promotes stable population cycles in lizards. Decade-long fitness studies and game theory demonstrated that two throat-colour morphs were refined by selection in which the strength of natural selection varied with density. Orange-throated females, r strategists, produced many eggs and were favoured at low density. Conversely, yellow-throated females, K strategists, produced large eggs and were favoured at high density. Progeny size should also be under negative frequency-dependent selection in that large progeny will have a survival advantage when rare, but the advantage disappears when they become common. We confirmed this prediction by seeding field plots with rare and common giant hatchlings. Thus, intrinsic causes of frequency- and density-dependent selection promotes an evolutionary game with two-generation oscillations

Effect of nitrous oxide on neurologic and neuropsychological function after intracranial aneurysm surgery

Laboratory studies suggest that nitrous oxide augments brain injury after ischemia or hypoxia. The authors examined the relation between nitrous oxide use and outcomes using data from the Intraoperative Hypothermia for Aneurysm Surgery Trial