Duration of infectiousness and correlation with RT-PCR cycle threshold values in cases of COVID-19, England, January to May 2020.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract peaks around symptom onset and infectious virus persists for 10 days in mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease (n = 324 samples analysed). RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values correlate strongly with cultivable virus. Probability of culturing virus declines to 8% in samples with Ct > 35 and to 6% 10 days after onset; it is similar in asymptomatic and symptomatic persons. Asymptomatic persons represent a source of transmissible virus

Case-Control Study of Risk Factors for Sporadic Giardiasis and Parasite Assemblages in North West England

Giardia duodenalis is a major cause of infectious gastroenteritis worldwide, and it is diversified into eight genetic assemblages (A to H), which are distinguishable only by molecular typing. There is some evidence that the assemblages infecting humans (assemblages A and B) may have different transmission routes, but systematically acquired data, combining epidemiological and molecular findings, are required. We undertook a case-control study with Giardia genotyping in North West England, to determine general and parasite assemblage-specific risk factors. For people without a history of foreign travel, swimming in swimming pools and changing diapers were the most important risk factors for the disease. People infected with assemblage B reported a greater number of symptoms and higher frequencies of vomiting, abdominal pain, swollen stomach, and loss of appetite, compared with people infected with assemblage A. More importantly, keeping a dog was associated only with assemblage A infections, suggesting the presence of a potential zoonotic reservoir for this assemblage. This is the first case-control study to combine epidemiological data with Giardia genotyping, and it shows the importance of integrating these two levels of information for better understanding of the epidemiology of this pathogen

A qualitative study exploring the acceptability of the McNulty-Zelen design for randomised controlled trials evaluating educational interventions

Background: Traditional randomised controlled trials evaluating the effect of educational interventions in general practice may produce biased results as participants know they are being evaluated. We aimed to explore the acceptability of a McNulty-Zelen Cluster Randomised Control Trial (CRT) design which conceals from educational participants that they are in a RCT. Consent is obtained from a trusted third party considered appropriate to give consent on participants’ behalf, intervention practice staff then choose whether to attend the offered education as would occur with normal continuing professional development. Methods:We undertook semi structured telephone interviews in England with 16 general practice (GP) staff involved in a RCT evaluating an educational intervention aimed at increasing chlamydia screening tests in general practice using the McNulty-Zelen design, 4 Primary Care (PC) Research Network officers, 5 Primary Care Trust leads in Public or sexual health, and one Research Ethics committee Chair. Interviews were undertaken by members of the original intervention evaluation McNulty-Zelen design RCT study team. These experienced qualitative interviewers used an agreed semi-structured interview schedule and were careful not to lead the participants. To further mitigate against bias, the data analysis was undertaken by a researcher (CR) not involved in the original RCT. Results: We reached data saturation and found five main themes; Support for the design: All found the McNulty-Zelen design acceptable because they considered that it generated more reliable evidence of the value of new educational interventions in real life GP settings. Lack of familiarity with study design: The design was novel to all. GP staff likened the evaluation using the McNulty–Zelen design to audit of their activities with feedback, which were to them a daily experience and therefore acceptable. Ethical considerations:Research stakeholders considered the consent procedure should be very clear and that these trial designs should go through at least a proportionate ethical review. GP staff were happy for the PCT leads to give consent on their behalf. GP research capacity and trial participation: GP staff considered the design increased generalisability, as staff who would not normally volunteer to participate in research due to perceived time constraints and paperwork might do so. Design ‘worth it’: All interviewees agreed that the advantages of the “more accurate” or “truer” results and information gained about uptake of workshops within Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) outweighed any disadvantages of the consent procedure. Discussion:Our RCT was evaluating the effect of an educational intervention to increase chlamydia screening tests in general practices where there was routine monitoring of testing rates; our participants may have been less enthusiastic about the design if it had been evaluating a more controversial educational area, or if data monitoring was not routine. Implications:The McNulty-Zelen design should be considered for the evaluation of educational interventions, but these designs should have clear consent protocols and proportionate ethical review. Trial registration: The trial was registered on the UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio database. UKCRN9722

Can syndromic surveillance help forecast winter hospital bed pressures in England?

BACKGROUND: Health care planners need to predict demand for hospital beds to avoid deterioration in health care. Seasonal demand can be affected by respiratory illnesses which in England are monitored using syndromic surveillance systems. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between syndromic data and daily emergency hospital admissions. METHODS: We compared the timing of peaks in syndromic respiratory indicators and emergency hospital admissions, between 2013 and 2018. Furthermore, we created forecasts for daily admissions and investigated their accuracy when real-time syndromic data were included. RESULTS: We found that syndromic indicators were sensitive to changes in the timing of peaks in seasonal disease, especially influenza. However, each year, peak demand for hospital beds occurred on either 29th or 30th December, irrespective of the timing of syndromic peaks. Most forecast models using syndromic indicators explained over 70% of the seasonal variation in admissions (adjusted R square value). Forecast errors were reduced when syndromic data were included. For example, peak admissions for December 2014 and 2017 were underestimated when syndromic data were not used in models. CONCLUSION: Due to the lack of variability in the timing of the highest seasonal peak in hospital admissions, syndromic surveillance data do not provide additional early warning of timing. However, during atypical seasons syndromic data did improve the accuracy of forecast intensity

National observational study to evaluate the "cleanyourhands" campaign (NOSEC): a questionnaire based study of national implementation

INTRODUCTION: The number of national hand-hygiene campaigns has increased recently, following the World Health Organisation's (WHO) "Save Lives: clean your hands" initiative (2009), which offers hospitals a multi-component hand-hygiene intervention. The number of campaigns to be evaluated remains small. Most evaluations focus on consumption of alcohol hand rub (AHR). We are not aware of any evaluation reporting implementation of all campaign components. In a previously published report, we evaluated the effects of the English and Welsh cleanyourhands campaign (2004-8) on procurement of AHR and soap, and on selected healthcare associated infections. We now report on the implementation of each individual campaign component: provision of bedside AHR, ward posters, patient empowerment materials, audit and feedback, and guidance to secure institutional engagement. METHOD: SETTING: all 189 acute National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in England and Wales (December 2005-June 2008). Six postal questionnaires (five voluntary, one mandatory) were distributed to infection control teams six-monthly from 6 to 36 months post roll-out. Selection and attrition bias were measured. RESULTS: Response rates fell from 134 (71 %) at 6 months to 82 (44 %) at 30 months, rising to 167 (90 %) for the final mandatory one (36 months). There was no evidence of attrition or selection bias. Hospitals reported widespread early implementation of bedside AHR and posters and a gradual rise in audit. At 36 months, 90 % of respondents reported the campaign to be a top hospital priority, with implementation of AHR, posters and audit reported by 96 %, 97 % and 91 % respectively. Patient empowerment was less successful. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that all campaign components, apart from patient empowerment, were widely implemented and sustained. It supports previous work suggesting that adequate piloting, strong governmental support, refreshment of campaigns, and sufficient time to engage institutions help secure sustained implementation of a campaign's key components. The results should encourage countries wishing to launch coordinated national campaigns for hospitals to participate in the WHO's "Save Lives" initiative, which offers hospitals a similar multi-component intervention

Improving engagement with healthcare in hepatitis C: a randomised controlled trial of a peer support intervention

National Institute for Health Research Policy Research Programme (‘Effectiveness of testing for treatment of hard-to-reach groups for latent tuberculosis, hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus in England: The HALT Study’, 015/0306

Changes in severity of 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in England: a Bayesian evidence synthesis

Objective To assess the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in England during the two waves of activity up to end of February 2010 by estimating the probabilities of cases leading to severe events and the proportion of the population infected