A Market Analysis of a Set-aside Program by the Five Major Grain and Oilseed Exporting Countries

Nominal grain and oilseed prices have declined dramatically from the high levels observed in the mid-1990s. As a result, it has been suggested by some industry stakeholders that measures should be taken to limit world crop supplies to raise prices. One such measure is a set-aside program involving a number of participants that would significantly reduce the quantity of land in production over a certain period of time. In fact, the European Union and the United States currently have set-aside programs that, together, already have had a positive effect on crop prices. Set-aside programs could also become relevant if the use of the World Trade Organization blue box is extended to more countries after the next round of negotiations. This analysis focuses on the quantitative aspects of a substantial multi-country, multi-commodity, set-aside program and its impact on major agricultural commodity prices. Three main conclusions can be drawn from the analysis: · A permanent set-aside program would be necessary to keep prices from returning to relatively low levels · Even with a permanent set-aside program, the results show a declining effect over time mostly because of additional production by non-participating countries and because of crop substitution in favour of cereals and oilseeds and higher yield in participating countries. · For a set-aside program to have any significant impact on prices, the program must include many commodities in many countries. A program involving Canada alone is doomed to fail. And given that the United States and the European Union-two large producers-already have their respective set-aside programs, it might be difficult to convince them to participate in an international effort.Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis,

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture - International and Domestic Markets

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture (previously entitled Medium Term Policy Baseline) covering the period 2008 to 2018. The outlook is an attempt to outline a plausible future of the international and domestic agri-food sectors. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. The medium term assumptions used and published by the OECD/FAO in the Agricultural Outlook are by in large maintained in the AAFC's outlook but updated to reflect short term price forecasts produced and released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in November 2008. The November 2008 macroeconomic forecast published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was also incorporated in the outlook and in particular a 32% reduction in the crude oil price in 2009. AAFC assumed that 3 years will be necessary before the crude oil price returns to the level used in the OECD/FAO medium term outlook. The world prices generated by this process combined with the macro-economic forecast for Canada published by the Conference Board in December 2008 are the key inputs used to produce the Canadian agricultural markets outlook. The key sectors covered are grains, oilseeds and products, special crops, bio-fuels, beef/cattle, pork/hogs, milk and dairy products, chicken, turkey and eggs.Outlook, Agriculture, Cereals, Oilseeds, Bio-fuels, Livestock, Red meats, Milk, Dairy products, Chicken, Turkey, Eggs, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

The Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Taiwan and South Korea on the Red Meat Industries in Canada and the United States

In addition to trade liberalization, other factors have contributed to the strong growth of red meat production in Canada since the end of the 1980s. In particular, the outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Taiwan and in South Korea eliminated two competitors in the Japanese market. This reduction in supply caused an increase in the price of hogs in the United States and Canada of 2.5% and 3% respectively during the 1997 to 2007 period. The higher price stimulated Canadian production by an average of 5%, and by 2% in the United States. Annual agricultural farm receipts from the hog market were greater by an average of $CD 276 million (9$CD 3 billion over the 11 years. Moreover, the value added in the red meat processing industry was on average $CD 158 million higher (5$CD 1.7 billion. Finally, the value of exports of the red meat supply chain is on average $CD 239 million higher (4.4$CD 2.6 billion during these 11 years.red meats, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, foot and mouth disease, economic impact, pork, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

A bushel Half Full: Reforming the Canadian Wheat Board

The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) has been earning poor financial returns for farmers over the last three years, based on our benchmarking analysis. Reforms are required, including more transparency in reporting financial returns to farmers, and greater accountability on the part of CWB management to the farmer-elected board of directors.governance and public institutions, Canadian Wheat Board, Daily Price Contract (DPC)

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture (previously entitled Medium Term Policy Baseline) covering the period 2007 to 2017. The outlook is an attempt to outline a plausible future of the international and domestic agri-food sectors. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. The medium term assumptions used and published by the OECD/FAO in the Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016 are by in large maintained in the AAFC's international agricultural markets outlook but updated to reflect short term price forecasts produced and released by USDA in October 2007. The world prices generated by this process combined with the macro-economic forecast for Canada published by the Conference Board in September 2007 are the key inputs used to produce the Canadian agricultural markets outlook. The key sectors covered are grains, oilseeds and products, special crops, bio-fuels, beef/cattle, pork/hogs, milk and dairy products, chicken, turkey and eggsOutlook, agriculture, cereals, oilseeds, bio-fuels, livestock, red meats, milk, dairy products, chicken, turkey, eggs, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets

The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the MTO covering the period 2010 to 2020. The MTO is a plausible future for the international and domestic agri-food sectors based on current policies in Canada and other countries as of Fall 2010. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. In particular there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual climatic conditions over the period of the outlook. The starting point of the MTO is world agricultural commodities price projection based on the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2009/2019 adjusted with more recent information. The Canadian macro-economic forecasts are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2010. In addition, short-term price forecasts have been updated using United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections released in October 2010. For example, droughts in some southern hemisphere countries and China as well as the foot and mouth outbreak in South Korea have not been taken into account.Outlook, Agriculture, Cereals, Oilseeds, Bio-fuels, Livestock, Red meats, Milk, Dairy products, Chicken, Turkey, Eggs, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Gene Expression Noise Facilitates Adaptation and Drug Resistance Independently of Mutation

We show that the effect of stress on the reproductive fitness of noisy cell populations can be modelled as first-passage time problem, and demonstrate that even relatively short-lived fluctuations in gene expression can ensure long-term survival of a drug-resistant population. We examine how this effect contributes to the development of drug-resistant cancer cells, and demonstrate that permanent immunity can arise independently of mutations.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Economic Analysis of the Liberalization of Red Meat Markets in the Pacific Region from 1988 to 2007

The liberalization of red meat (beef and pork) markets since 1988 is a good example of government action that has led to significant gains for the Canadian and American agri-food industries. Japan, South Korea and Mexico are the main countries that have liberalized their red meat markets since 1988. This industry has also benefited from the agreement between Canada and the United States. It has also made gain from the liberalization of the pork market in Australia and the Philippines, and the beef market in Indonesia. This analysis captures the impact on the price received by farmers as well as on Canadian production in the absence of these increased market access. The combination of lower prices and lower production would have caused annual average decreases in farm cash receipts drawn from the cattle and hog market equal to C$776 million and C$486 million, respectively, for a grand total of C$25.7 billion over this 20-year period (1988-2007) for the entire agriculture industry. Additionally, the value added of the red meat processing industry would have dropped by an average of C$432 million per year, for a total loss of C$8.6 billion. Finally, the value of exports of the red meat supply chain would have dropped by an average of C$1.044 billion per year, for a grand total of C$21 billion over this 20-year period.liberalization, benefits, red meats, pork, beef, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

Forward Genomics of a Complex Trait: Mammalian Basal Metabolic Rate

The significance and nature of basal metabolic rate, a metabolic parameter recorded under specific laboratory conditions, are contested among biologists. Although it was most likely important in the evolution of endothermy in mammals and is associated with many other traits inter-and intra-specifically, the specifics of its heritability and its genetic determinants are largely unknown. Two bioinformatics pipelines are available which can associate traits with their genetic correlates given only whole genomes and phenotypes for each animal. However, extant pipelines were created with binary traits in mind. This leaves a void in our ability to associate continuous traits such as basal metabolic rate with genetic regions that influence them. To fill this gap, I developed a technique to augment the existing forward genomics pipeline developed by Hiller et al.(2012)by repeatedly analyzing a continuous trait converted to a binary trait via increasing thresholds. The results of my analysis identified a list of genes that have changed more from a reconstructed ancestral state in high BMR than in low BMR mammals. However, the list of genes did not appear to be enriched for genes associated with any biological process, function, or component clearly related to metabolism. Applying these analyses to other continuous traits could provide context for whether this result is unique to BMR, which could make a statement on its lack of straightforward genetic underpinnings, or is a result of the limitations of the forward genomics pipeline