Retrospective cohort study of false alarm rates associated with a series of heart operations: the case for hospital mortality monitoring groups

OBJECTIVE: To examine the efficacy of different methods of detecting a high death rate and determining whether an increase in deaths after heart transplantation could be explained by chance. DESIGN:Retrospective analysis of deaths after heart transplantation. Seven methods were used: mortality above national average, mortality excessively above national average, test of moving average mortality, test of number of consecutive deaths, sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), cusum graph with v-mask, and CRAM chart. The national average mortality was not available and a rate of 15% was used instead as the benchmark. SETTING: Regional cardiothoracic unit. PARTICIPANTS: All 371 patients who received a heart transplant in the programme, 1986-2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30 day survival after transplantation. RESULTS: All methods provided evidence that the 30 day mortality had been high at some stage. The probability that the finding was a false positive depended on which test was used. At the end of the series the average mortality, sequential probability ratio, and cusum tests indicated a level of deaths higher than the benchmark while the remaining four tests yielded negative results. CONCLUSIONS:If the decision to test for outlying mortality is made retrospectively, in the light of the data, it is not possible to determine the false positive rate. Prospective on-site mortality monitoring with the CRAM chart is recommended as this method can quantify the death rate and identify periods when an audit of cases is indicated, even when data from other institutions are not available. A hospital mortality monitoring group can routinely monitor all deaths in the hospital, by specialty, using hospital episode statistics (HES) data and appropriate statistical methods

ZAMSTAR, The Zambia South Africa TB and HIV Reduction study: Design of a 2 × 2 factorial community randomized trial

BACKGROUND: TB and HIV form a deadly synergy in much of the developing world, especially Africa. Interventions to reduce the impact of these diseases at community level are urgently needed. This paper presents the design of a community randomised trial to evaluate the impact of two complex interventions on the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) in high HIV prevalence settings in Zambia and South Africa. METHODS: The interaction between TB and HIV is reviewed and possible interventions that could reduce the prevalence of TB in HIV-endemic populations are discussed. Two of these interventions are described in detail and the design of a 2 x 2 factorial community randomised trial to test these interventions is presented. The limitations and challenges of the design are identified and discussed. CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need to reduce the prevalence of TB in communities highly affected by HIV. Potential interventions are complex and require innovative trial designs to provide the rigorous evidence needed to inform health policy makers and to ensure that resources are used optimally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Number: ISRCTN36729271

Effect of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during infancy on serological responses to measles and other vaccines used in the Expanded Programme on Immunization: results from five randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during infancy (IPTi) is the administration of a full therapeutic course of antimalarial drugs to infants living in settings where malaria is endemic, at the time of routine vaccination in the first year of life. We investigated whether IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or other antimalarial drug combinations adversely affected serological responses to vaccines used in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). METHODS: The study was done in a subset of children enrolled in five randomised controlled trials in Navrongo, Ghana; Kilimanjaro, Tanzania; Manhica, Mozambique; Kisumu, Kenya; and Bungoma, Kenya. All infants presenting for the second dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccination (given at 8-10 weeks of age) were eligible, and analyses included all children who had received measles vaccination (at 9 months of age) and at least one dose of IPTi or placebo. Blood samples were collected before and after vaccination, and antibody titres were measured by plaque reduction neutralisation (measles, yellow fever), microneutralisation (polio serotypes 1 and 3), and ELISA (all other EPI antigens). Laboratory personnel were unaware of the randomisation groups. We compared the proportion of infants in the IPTi and placebo groups who did not attain protective antibody titres after vaccination, using a one-sided significance non-inferiority margin of 5% for measles (the primary endpoint) and 10% for other EPI antigens. FINDINGS: Between September, 2000, and May, 2008, 8416 children were enrolled in the five studies. Paired samples from 2368 children from sites where sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine was compared with placebo were analysed for measles antibodies. 464 children with detectable measles antibody in their sample before vaccination were excluded, leaving 1904 individuals (934 placebo and 970 sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine) in the study. IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine did not have a clinically significant effect on immune responses to measles vaccine; 61 of 970 (6·3%) children who received IPTi did not develop a protective antibody response after measles vaccination compared with 60 of 934 (6·4%) who received placebo, a difference of -0·14% (95% CI -2·3 to 2·1). When other antimalarial drugs were used for IPTi the results were much the same. Among 2396 children from whom serological response data for other EPI antigens were available, we identified no evidence of an adverse effect of IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or other antimalarial drugs on the proportion achieving protective antibody concentrations. INTERPRETATION: IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine does not affect serological responses to EPI vaccines. This analysis, therefore, supports the WHO recommendation for coadministration of IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine to infants at the time of the second and third doses of DTP and measles vaccination, in areas of sub-Saharan Africa with moderate to high malaria transmission and where malaria parasites are sensitive to these drugs. It also suggests that treatment of clinical malaria at or around the time of vaccination does not compromise vaccine responsiveness. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A four-month gatifloxacin-containing regimen for treating tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Shortening the course of treatment for tuberculosis would be a major improvement for case management and disease control. This phase 3 trial assessed the efficacy and safety of a 4-month gatifloxacin-containing regimen for treating rifampin-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis. METHODS: We conducted a noninferiority, randomized, open-label, controlled trial involving patients 18 to 65 years of age with smear-positive, rifampin-sensitive, newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis in five sub-Saharan African countries. A standard 6-month regimen that included ethambutol during the 2-month intensive phase was compared with a 4-month regimen in which gatifloxacin (400 mg per day) was substituted for ethambutol during the intensive phase and was continued, along with rifampin and isoniazid, during the continuation phase. The primary efficacy end point was an unfavorable outcome (treatment failure, recurrence, or death or study dropout during treatment) measured 24 months after the end of treatment, with a noninferiority margin of 6 percentage points, adjusted for country. RESULTS: A total of 1836 patients were assigned to the 4-month regimen (experimental group) or the standard regimen (control group). Baseline characteristics were well balanced between the groups. At 24 months after the end of treatment, the adjusted difference in the risk of an unfavorable outcome (experimental group [21.0%] minus control group [17.2%]) in the modified intention-to-treat population (1356 patients) was 3.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval, -0.7 to 7.7). There was heterogeneity across countries (P=0.02 for interaction, with differences in the rate of an unfavorable outcome ranging from -5.4 percentage points in Guinea to 12.3 percentage points in Senegal) and in baseline cavitary status (P=0.04 for interaction) and body-mass index (P=0.10 for interaction). The standard regimen, as compared with the 4-month regimen, was associated with a higher dropout rate during treatment (5.0% vs. 2.7%) and more treatment failures (2.4% vs. 1.7%) but fewer recurrences (7.1% vs. 14.6%). There was no evidence of increased risks of prolongation of the QT interval or dysglycemia with the 4-month regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Noninferiority of the 4-month regimen to the standard regimen with respect to the primary efficacy end point was not shown. (Funded by the Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00216385.)

Trends in the prevalence and management of diagnosed type 2 diabetes 1994–2001 in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Its prevalence appears to be increasing. Guidelines exist regarding its management. Recommendations regarding drug therapy have changed. Little is known about the influence of these guidelines and changed recommendations on the actual management of patients with type 2 diabetes. This study aims to document trends in the prevalence, drug treatment and recording of measures related to the management of type 2 diabetes; and to assess whether recommended targets can be met. METHODS: The population comprised subjects registered between 1994 and 2001 with 74 general practices in England and Wales which routinely contribute to the Doctors' Independent Network database. Approximately 500,000 patients and 10,000 type 2 diabetics were registered in each year. RESULTS: Type 2 diabetes prevalence rose from 17/1000 in 1994 to 25/1000 in 2001. Drug therapy has changed: use of long acting sulphonylureas is falling while that of short acting sulphonylureas, metformin and newer therapies including glitazones is increasing. Electronic recording of HbA1c, blood pressure, cholesterol and weight have risen steadily, and improvements in control of blood pressure and cholesterol levels have occurred. However, glycaemic control has not improved, and obesity has increased. The percentage with a BMI under 25 kg/m(2 )fell from 27.0% in 1994 to 19.4% in 2001 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing. Its primary care management has changed in accordance with best evidence. Monitoring has improved, but further improvement is possible. Despite this, glycaemic control has not improved, while the prevalence of obesity in the diabetic population is rising

Annual Risk of Tuberculous Infection Using Different Methods in Communities with a High Prevalence of TB and HIV in Zambia and South Africa

BACKGROUND: The annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) is a key epidemiological indicator of the extent of transmission in a community. Several methods have been suggested to estimate the prevalence of tuberculous infection using tuberculin skin test data. This paper explores the implications of using different methods to estimate prevalence of infection and ARTI. The effect of BCG vaccination on these estimates is also investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Tuberculin surveys among school children in 16 communities in Zambia and 8 in South Africa (SA) were performed in 2005, as part of baseline data collection and for randomisation purposes of the ZAMSTAR study. Infection prevalence and ARTI estimates were calculated using five methods: different cut-offs with or without adjustments for sensitivity, the mirror method, and mixture analysis. A total of 49,835 children were registered for the surveys, of which 25,048 (50%) had skin tests done and 22,563 (90%) of those tested were read. Infection prevalence was higher in the combined SA than Zambian communities. The mirror method resulted in the least difference of 7.8%, whereas that estimated by the cut-off methods varied from 12.2% to 17.3%. The ARTI in the Zambian and SA communities was between 0.8% and 2.8% and 2.5% and 4.2% respectively, depending on the method used. In the SA communities, the ARTI was higher among the younger children. BCG vaccination had little effect on these estimates. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ARTI estimates are dependent on the calculation method used. All methods agreed that there were substantial differences in infection prevalence across the communities, with higher rates in SA. Although TB notification rates have increased over the past decades, the difference in cumulative exposure between younger and older children is less dramatic and a rise in risk of infection in parallel with the estimated incidence of active tuberculosis cannot be excluded

Risk Factors Associated with Positive QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube and Tuberculin Skin Tests Results in Zambia and South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The utility of T-cell based interferon-gamma release assays for the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection remains unclear in settings with a high burden of tuberculosis. OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors associated with positive QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) and tuberculin skin test (TST) results and the level of agreement between the tests; to explore the hypotheses that positivity in QFT-GIT is more related to recent infection and less affected by HIV than the TST. METHODS: Adult household contacts of tuberculosis patients were invited to participate in a cross-sectional study across 24 communities in Zambia and South Africa. HIV, QFT-GIT and TST tests were done. A questionnaire was used to assess risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 2,220 contacts were seen. 1,803 individuals had interpretable results for both tests, 1,147 (63.6%) were QFT-GIT positive while 725 (40.2%) were TST positive. Agreement between the tests was low (kappa = 0.24). QFT-GIT and TST results were associated with increasing age (adjusted OR [aOR] for each 10 year increase for QFT-GIT 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06-1.25, and for TST aOR: 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.20). HIV positivity was less common among those with positive results on QFT-GIT (aOR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.39-0.67) and TST (aOR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.46-0.82). Smear positivity of the index case was associated with QFT-GIT (aOR: 1.25; 95% CI: 0.90-1.74) and TST (aOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 0.98-1.98) results. We found little evidence in our data to support our hypotheses. CONCLUSION: QFT-GIT may not be more sensitive than the TST to detect risk factors associated with tuberculous infection. We found little evidence to support the hypotheses that positivity in QFT-GIT is more related to recent infection and less affected by HIV than the TST